SLOVAKIA FRUSTRATED WITH EU RESPONSE TO BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000234 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DAMON WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2021 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI EU BO LO SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA FRUSTRATED WITH EU RESPONSE TO BELARUS ELECTION Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A March 24 event on "next steps in Belarus" hosted by the British Ambassador to Slovakia and featuring presentations by representatives from both the Slovak MFA and NGO community, highlighted Slovakia's disappointment in the lack of a clear, timely EU response to Belarus' March 19 presidential election. The event -- which included participation by former Foreign Minister Pavol Demes, whose op-ed that day in daily Pravda was biting in its criticism of EU after-action -- reflected frustration by all parties that the EU was unable to issue a meaningful statement despite the fact that the results of the election were "well known" in advance. By the end of the event, the room had been polarized. French and Austrian diplomats squared off to defend their countries' actions in response to the four panelists' chiding of the lack of "moral clarity" in the EU response. The panelists begged that the body work quickly to "catch up" with the United States to present a strong, joint approach. Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the overnight crackdown in Minsk, the PM's foreign policy advisor tells us that Slovak leaders are "furious" with inaction on the situation, and that while "taking hits" within the EU, Slovakia continued to struggle in Brussels to make its own points for strong, decisive language in the upcoming council conclusions. END SUMMARY. PONTIS FOUNDATION SEES CHANGES FROM 2002 -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Balazs Jarabik from the Pontis Foundation gave the assembled diplomats, government officials, and NGO representatives an overview of the Belarusian opposition's response and the space for dialogue that protests on October Square seemed to have created. Noting many changes from the 2002 elections, Jarabik highlighted the first-time phenomenon of mass protests, an increased number of signs, flags, and banners, as well as a diminished "fear factor," particularly evidenced by the March 18 freedom concert held in Minsk. The Pontis Foundation circulated documents March 19 that claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin had called Lukashenko to urge the Belarusian President away from a violent response to protests; Jarabik repeated his speculation that Russia is still heavily involved in advising Lukashenko's response. Jarabik recommended that the west change its economic approach to Belarus, noting that the EU -- as Belarus' largest trading partner -- needed to "tackle the status quo" and deny Lukashenko "breathing room" through a coordinated economic response. PAVOL DEMES COMES DOWN HARD ON THE EU -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The German Marshall Fund's Pavol Demes highlighted the importance of the opposition's "unity" during the election cycle, both in the formation and support of a 10-plus candidate, and in the opposition's response to the election results. Calling the opposition movement -- and particularly Zubr (whose representative Vladimir Kobets was present) and the "jeans solidarity movement" -- "unexpected" and "brave," Demes carried forward with themes presented in his op-ed. He came down hard on the EU, and particularly the Austrian presidency, for failing to take a "clear position followed up by practical steps" in response to Lukashenko's victory. (COMMENT: An English translation of the article has been forwarded to the desk. END COMMENT) ¶4. (SBU) Demes speculated that the EU response was so tepid that Belarus would not even headline the March 23 EU Prime Ministers or Foreign Ministers dinners in Brussels that evening, but MFA Director for CIS and Balkans Stefan Rozkopal said that Slovak FM Eduard Kukan -- as well as Prime Minister Dzurinda -- were both planning on raising the issue before their EU colleagues. SLOVAK MFA DISAPPOINTED IN EU STATEMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Rozkopal said that, as the results of the election were "not surprising," Slovakia had hoped that the EU would have been able to agree on a statement which could have been made public Monday or Tuesday at the latest. He wondered pointedly why the EU failed to get a statement out when it knew in advance what the results would be. Saying that he agreed fully with Demes' op-ed piece, Rozkopal noted that as diplomats, "sadly the MFA cannot publish such things." ¶6. (SBU) Rozkopal presented "food for thought" on possible reactions to the Belarusian elections, including targeted BRATISLAVA 00000234 002 OF 003 sanctions and the expansion of the visa black list, but also challenged those assembled to begin thinking about ways to motivate Belarus' citizens. He encouraged attempts to influence Lukashenko through economic means, as he predicted that such economic action could hasten the fall of the regime. However, Rozkopal prescribed that any economic response would only be successful if it included the EU, rather than being unilaterally applied by the U.S. or Russia. BRITISH JOURNALIST GOES TO BAT FOR UNCLE SAM -------------- ¶7. (SBU) CSIS Fellow Robin Shepherd, a journalist based in Bratislava who traveled to Minsk earlier this year, emphasized the "disconnect" between how the U.S. and EU see Belarus. Shepherd lauded the U.S. as "much clearer" about its stance, noting with approval the Belarus Democracy Act and the USG's release of strong statements before, during, and after the March 19 election. In addition, he cited the declassified report to Congress which provides evidence that Lukashenko is "one of the world's most corrupt leaders" and praised the timing of its release. ¶8. (SBU) Shepherd warned that opinion polls were "not only inaccurate, but dangerous" as they give the EU cover for non-action. By pointing to inaccurate polls showing over 55 percent of the people supporting Lukashenko, some EU states can claim that action should be tempered as Lukashenko's continued rule is "the will of the people." Shepherd argued that any opinion poll in a state ruled by fear is rubbish. ¶9. (SBU) Shepherd was especially appreciative of A/S Fried's recent speech (NFI) in which he said it is better to deal with the problems that come from a policy of democratization than the problems of ignoring a dictatorial regime. Shepherd said that this sort of "moral clarity" is decidedly lacking in EU communiques. Shepherd, as well, proposed that targeted sanctions needed further study; Jarabik and Rozkopal voiced their support for Shepherd's comments. DEMES: EU HAS TO DO SOMETHING FOR THOSE IN THE SQUARE -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Pavol Demes ended the evening's discussion by pointing out that the weakness of the EU response was that, even four days after the elections, no EU representative could walk into October Square in Minsk and succinctly explain to the people gathered there what the EU position and response was. Demes, disappointed at the lack of a German representative, said that Germany, as Belarus' second largest trade partner, will be the voice at the dinner table in Brussels saying "let's be careful," while Slovakia's government and NGOs remain "in shock" about how this "most powerful union" really works. "We need to put the facts, and the anger, on paper" if the EU wants to "do something for the people on the (October) square on Saturday" he said. OPPOSITION PARTY THINKS DZURINDA HAS "POLITICIZED" BELARUS -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Immediately after the event, opposition party Smer's vice chairman Pavol Paska phoned DCM to discuss the upcoming travel of Smer leaders -- including Robert Fico -- to Washington. Paska said that the Slovak media had incorrectly reported that of all the political parties the media had approached for views on Belarus, only Smer did not offer a stance. When the DCM told Paska it was still not too late to get condemnation of Lukashenko's behavior on the record, Paska disappointingly said it was difficult to respond as PM Dzurinda had "politicized" the issue. The March 24 daily Sme contained a cartoon showing Fico in the classic "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" poses when the topic of democratization in Belarus is brought up. AFTER THE CRACK-DOWN: DZURINDA'S OFFICE LIVID -------------- ¶12. (C) Dzurinda Foreign Policy advisor Milan Jezovica (please protect) told us March 24 that Slovakia was "taking a few hits" on Belarus during the gathering of EU leaders in Brussles and "fighting an uphill battle" within the EU. Still, Slovakia was resolved to continue the struggle and make its own points in the internal debate. Jezovica resented that EU non-action the day after the elections gave Lukashenko a green light "for what he did last night." Jezovica said that Slovakia is strongly supporting language in the council conclusions, including a reference to visa restrictions for senior representatives including Lukashenko. BRATISLAVA 00000234 003 OF 003 Slovakia has had no luck getting the EU to not recognize the elections. ¶13. (C) Jezovica said that there had been a proposal within the EU to include language which would "urge Lukashenko to allow people to exercise their rights." Jezovica was livid at this flaccid language, as the Slovaks believe the citizens' rights already exist and that Lukashenko's only job is to respect that right. Jezovica said that the debate in the EU today is better than last night, but he is still furious. "We're supposed to be a community of values," he lamented. He also noted that the next EU message is crucial to those willing to brave regime action to attend the planned rally in Minsk March 25. COMMENT: HIT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MARK -------------- ¶14. (C) The March 23 discussion in Bratislava -- and Demes' op-ed -- produced emotional and thorough defenses presented by the Austrian and French representatives, in particular, proving that the message of the event -- that the EU is failing to present a strong, unified approach -- hit fairly close to the mark. Slovakia's government and NGOs are discouraged and disappointed by the lack of EU response to the elections, and the late-night crackdown on the tent city in Minsk following the event likely reinforced their disdain and disappointment at the EU's "too little, too late" response. Slovakia sees eye to eye with us on this issue, and has signaled that it is ready and willing to carry water within the EU. VALLEE