SMER FINESSES ITS IMAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000233 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DAMON WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2021 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IZ LO SUBJECT: SMER FINESSES ITS IMAGE REF: A. BRATISLAVA 101 ¶B. BRATISLAVA 131 ¶C. FBIS EUP20060306059001 Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Main opposition party Smer, in addition to planning a campaign tailored to the truncated election cycle culminating on June 17 (ref A),has also apparently undertaken several changes in anticipation of success at the polls. Chairman Robert Fico (ref B) and his party elite, confident that they will emerge from the elections with the lion's share of votes, have made subtle moves to shore up both foreign and domestic support which they hope they can leverage during post-election negotiations with possible coalition partners. The fine tuning has included: - Removing shadow Minister of Foreign Affairs Monika Benova from her position both within the shadow cabinet and on the party's candidate list; - Creating a think tank to develop a working party economic proposal for a "social state" (septel); - Planning an ambitious foreign travel schedule for Fico and Vice Chairmen Pavol Paska and Robert Kalinak to "demonstrate" to capitals -- including Washington (April 19-20),London (April 17-18),and Moscow (April 11-13) -- that Fico and Smer are not "another Meciar." END SUMMARY. BENOVA REMOVAL A HINT AT COOPERATION WITH SDKU? -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Monika Benova -- member of European Parliament, Smer Vice Chair, and until recently shadow Minister of Foreign Affairs -- has gone, within weeks, from likely power player in a Fico-led government to "non-factor." First she voluntarily "gave up" her position as number two on Smer's candidate list and then she announced March 16 that she was no longer shadow Minister. This wasn't a complete surprise: rumors at the time of European Parliament elections claimed the Smer leadership was happy to get Benova out of Bratislava. Benova recently gave an interview to weekly Domino Forum (ref C) in which she said that, as Minister of Foreign Affairs, she would "seek support for the withdrawal of our (Slovak) troops" from Iraq. Both Fico and parliamentary Defense and Security committee chairman Robert Kalinak have made a great effort to convey to us their position on Iraq: "Smer opposed the decision to go into Iraq, but we always kept our promise not to vote for the withdrawal of Slovak troops." ¶3. (C) Smer Deputy International Secretary Katarina Nevedalova told us that many people have expressed their "relief" at Benova's removal from the shadow cabinet position, but to her surprise no one had voiced their concerns about Benova before. Nevedalova claimed not to have heard about Benova's Domino Forum interview and said that Benova's decision not to run was made because Smer decided it was "not a good idea" for Benova to quit her MEP mandate halfway through. Nevedalova said that Smer had not yet appointed a new shadow Minister, and that it might not do so -- the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, she hinted, is a plum position which could be used as a bargaining chip if and when Smer attempts to form a coalition (and could, we note, help attract PM Dzurinda's SDKU to the negotiation table). FLASIK'S FRIENDS GET FLUSHED -------------- ¶4. (SBU) There was media speculation that Benova's departure was part of the "purge" of a group of business leaders whose interests were at odds with Fico's ideas of social state, in which Fico replaced as many as 14 Smer candidates with trusted friends. Fico's relationship with Fedor Flasik, the former chief of Smer's campaign, has been strained for some time; Benova's engagement to Flasik likely inhibited her upward mobility in the party. ¶5. (C) While the March 16 "purge" of the business wing and Benova's departure from her seat in the shadow cabinet generated much discussion in the media and among pundits, Smer officials have downplayed any palace intrigue with a convincing demur. Kalinak told us March 22 that the story was distorted and that, while the relationship between Fico and Flasik is strained, there was no real purge. If there had been, Kalinak said, it would have been impossible for Smer to keep Flasik-friendly businessmen Martin Glvac in the 8th position on the candidate list, and Peter Ziga in 13th. (COMMENT: While in the past Fico made Smer candidates sign BRATISLAVA 00000233 002 OF 003 "loyalty agreements," we have not yet had reports publicly or privately that similar statements have been required for this election, though Fico has stated publicly that the most important criterion for membership on the list is "loyalty." END COMMENT) SOCIALISM WITH FICO'S FACE: THE SMER ROAD SHOW -------------- - ¶6. (SBU) Fico's on-again, off-again travel to the United States -- which was delayed after the successful visit of PM Dzurinda to the White House earlier this month -- is on again, with Fico pursuing high-level consultations in Washington on April 19. Kalinak told us that he and parliamentary Foreign Affairs committee chairman Pavol Paska will accompany Fico to Washington; Nevedalova told us that the purpose of their trip is to present Smer to the Washington policy audience in an attempt to assure the USG that Fico is "not another Meciar." ¶7. (C) Nevedalova showed us Fico's "secret campaign schedule" which kicks off on April 1 in Malacky. In addition to Fico's April travel to Washington, he is also planning trips to Moscow (April 11 - 13, but which Kalinak says will involve only one day of consultations within that window), London (April 18, from where he departs to Washington),and several trips to Prague. On one of the Prague visits (April 28),Fico plans to meet with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. COMMENT: In addition to "explaining" Smer's position and future initiatives to his foreign audiences, Fico is likely also attempting to increase his foreign policy credentials at home with some media-friendly photos of him meeting with foreign leaders. We have advised the travelers that Washington interlocutors will want to hear about their foreign policy vision, particularly their planned role in "transformational diplomacy" and not just that they will "follow the EU." His party's non-response to media requests to all parties for a comment on the recent "elections" in Belarus indicates Fico has more homework to do before his arrival in Washington. END COMMENT. SMER HAS NO PROBLEMS WITH SLOVAKIA'S FOREIGN POLICY -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Kalinak would likely be Defense Minister in a Smer-led government (in the past he was rumored to want the Interior Minister post, but he has apparently changed his mind). He claimed that Smer has no problems with Slovakia's current foreign policy orientation, and gave us a short tour d'horizon of Smer's foreign policy outlook. On Iran, Smer said that Slovakia considers the Iranian regime and its nuclear weapons program a "really serious problem" that will need to be dealt with in the near future. Regarding Cuba, Kalinak said he disapproves of sanctions because they were not effective against Castro, but only deteriorated the social situation of the Cuban people. Kalinak said that Belarus should not be treated like Cuba, but rather a different format of assistance to the Belarusian people must be introduced; in this respect, Kalinak praised the work of Slovakia's Pontis Foundation. COMMENT: Kalinak's claim contrasts markedly with both Fico's past public complaints that Dzurinda has been a lap-dog of the U.S., as well as with what Fico has told us privately: that a Smer government would be more likely to "follow" the big EU countries. At our December 15 lunch with Fico, Paska, and Kalinak, Kalinak was notably subdued. END COMMENT. COMMENT: CONFIDENT IN VOTES, SMER WOOING PARTNERS -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Fico appears to be fine-tuning his party in an attempt to avoid a repeat of the 2002 elections, in which Smer -- despite winning the largest share of votes -- failed to form a coalition government. Fico has likely taken the advice of focus groups and image makers, who seem to have zoned in on criticism that Smer is all complaint and no solution. The establishment of an economic think tank (ASA, to be reported septel),as well as the focus on developing a party platform and candidate list that homes in on pro-social-state issues will, he hopes, bolster his ability to look authoritative and statesmanlike on the campaign trail. Fico is still pursuing first-time votes, speaking to graduating students at high schools. He was in Pezinok speaking to the local gymnasium a week before Pol-Econ chief, but we heard that the students were rather bored with his poorly-chosen topic: pension reform. ¶10. (C) Comment, Cont'd: This pre-positioning -- lessening Flasik's and Benova's influence and undertaking foreign travel -- may be an attempt to make cooperation with Smer BRATISLAVA 00000233 003 OF 003 more attractive to parties elected to the next parliament and woo possible coalition partners. Fico's travels to Washington and Moscow may also be an attempt to "pay homage" to both relationships, though we continue to broadcast -- and increasingly receive -- the message that Slovakia's current foreign policy posture is one of the country's largest and most valuable assets. VALLEE