SLOVAK AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. PESSIMISTIC ON PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000165

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DAMON WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAK AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. PESSIMISTIC ON PM
DZURINDA'S ELECTORAL PROSPECTS, THINKS HE COULD BE NEXT FM


Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D
).


1. (C) During a March 1 meeting, Slovak Ambassador to the
U.S. Rastislav Kacer (please protect) told Ambassador that he
spent three days in Bratislava meeting with many members of
the opposition with whom he has maintained close personal
relationships. His scheduled 20-minute call on President
Gasparovic lengthened into a 90-minute tete-a-tete. Based on
Kacer's experiences, he feels that Prime Minister Dzurinda
has "no chance" of remaining Prime Minister after June 17
elections, as he "knows" that the Christian Democrat Movement
(KDH),Smer ("Direction"),and the Slovak Hungarian Coalition
(SMK) are already meeting to plan post-election cooperation,
most likely in cooperation with up-and-comer Free Forum (SF).
Kacer says that the recent KDH split from Dzurinda's SDKU
party was "too raw" for easy reconciliation, especially with
Smer as a "reasonable" alternative for KDH. In addition,
Kacer says that Dzurinda's "poaching" of the credit for KDH
initiatives has further spoiled the soup. Without KDH, the
numbers don't add up for Dzurinda.

KACER ON SMER: FICO'S TALK IS GARBAGE
--------------


2. (C) Kacer said that Robert Fico's Smer party is not
focusing on foreign policy, and that current party Vice Chair
for International Affairs and member of European Parliament
Monika Benova would likely end up Foreign Minister under a
Fico government, with MP Robert Kalinak heading the Ministry
of Defense and Pavol Paska an "Ambassador somewhere."
According to Kacer, all of Fico's talk about Slovakia simply
following the EU lead on foreign policy is "garbage." Kacer
is strongly advocating an alternative view with all
opposition parties with whom he meets.


3. (C) Kacer speculated, however, that Smer may give up the
Foreign Ministry, perhaps to SF. When asked if he honestly
believed that Smer -- and moreover, Benova -- would let it
slip from grasp, Kacer said that the Ministry is "but a Teddy
bear for her (Benova),and it will depend on the numbers."

SMER MIGHT WORK WITH DZURINDA...
--------------


4. (C) One of the close personal friends Kacer met with was
Smer's Kalinak, who Kacer thinks would be a very "reasonable"
defense minister. Kalinak noted that Fico has recently
stopped his personal attacks on Dzurinda, which Kacer thinks
leaves open the possibility of a Smer-SDKU partnership with
Dzurinda as Chairman of Parliament. Kacer confided, however,
that Fico's "financiers" were not at all pleased with such
rapprochement, as Dzurinda had attacked many of them.

THE RISE OF SF: HOW KACER COULD END UP FOREIGN MINISTER
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The hatred some Slovak politicians feel for Dzurinda
over the Skupinka affair can never be overcome, Kacer
speculated, especially the hatred between SF Chair Zuzana
Martinakova's husband and the PM. SF has strong financial
backing -- including a patron close to Kacer. Claiming that
he has seen recent polling which puts SF and SDKU within a
half percentage point of each other (with 7.5 and 8 percent,
respectively),Kacer said he feels some affinity with SF
supporters, as he was apparently listed as a Skupinka member
himself. When asked who SF would choose as a Foreign
Minister, Kacer -- referring to himself as Foreign Minister
-- allowed that "we don't talk of these things, but, while
complicated, personally and otherwise, my friend (the
financier) would assure that it would happen."
VALLEE