SLOVAK AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. PESSIMISTIC ON PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000165 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DAMON WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2021 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI LO SUBJECT: SLOVAK AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. PESSIMISTIC ON PM DZURINDA'S ELECTORAL PROSPECTS, THINKS HE COULD BE NEXT FM Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D ). ¶1. (C) During a March 1 meeting, Slovak Ambassador to the U.S. Rastislav Kacer (please protect) told Ambassador that he spent three days in Bratislava meeting with many members of the opposition with whom he has maintained close personal relationships. His scheduled 20-minute call on President Gasparovic lengthened into a 90-minute tete-a-tete. Based on Kacer's experiences, he feels that Prime Minister Dzurinda has "no chance" of remaining Prime Minister after June 17 elections, as he "knows" that the Christian Democrat Movement (KDH),Smer ("Direction"),and the Slovak Hungarian Coalition (SMK) are already meeting to plan post-election cooperation, most likely in cooperation with up-and-comer Free Forum (SF). Kacer says that the recent KDH split from Dzurinda's SDKU party was "too raw" for easy reconciliation, especially with Smer as a "reasonable" alternative for KDH. In addition, Kacer says that Dzurinda's "poaching" of the credit for KDH initiatives has further spoiled the soup. Without KDH, the numbers don't add up for Dzurinda. KACER ON SMER: FICO'S TALK IS GARBAGE -------------- ¶2. (C) Kacer said that Robert Fico's Smer party is not focusing on foreign policy, and that current party Vice Chair for International Affairs and member of European Parliament Monika Benova would likely end up Foreign Minister under a Fico government, with MP Robert Kalinak heading the Ministry of Defense and Pavol Paska an "Ambassador somewhere." According to Kacer, all of Fico's talk about Slovakia simply following the EU lead on foreign policy is "garbage." Kacer is strongly advocating an alternative view with all opposition parties with whom he meets. ¶3. (C) Kacer speculated, however, that Smer may give up the Foreign Ministry, perhaps to SF. When asked if he honestly believed that Smer -- and moreover, Benova -- would let it slip from grasp, Kacer said that the Ministry is "but a Teddy bear for her (Benova),and it will depend on the numbers." SMER MIGHT WORK WITH DZURINDA... -------------- ¶4. (C) One of the close personal friends Kacer met with was Smer's Kalinak, who Kacer thinks would be a very "reasonable" defense minister. Kalinak noted that Fico has recently stopped his personal attacks on Dzurinda, which Kacer thinks leaves open the possibility of a Smer-SDKU partnership with Dzurinda as Chairman of Parliament. Kacer confided, however, that Fico's "financiers" were not at all pleased with such rapprochement, as Dzurinda had attacked many of them. THE RISE OF SF: HOW KACER COULD END UP FOREIGN MINISTER -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The hatred some Slovak politicians feel for Dzurinda over the Skupinka affair can never be overcome, Kacer speculated, especially the hatred between SF Chair Zuzana Martinakova's husband and the PM. SF has strong financial backing -- including a patron close to Kacer. Claiming that he has seen recent polling which puts SF and SDKU within a half percentage point of each other (with 7.5 and 8 percent, respectively),Kacer said he feels some affinity with SF supporters, as he was apparently listed as a Skupinka member himself. When asked who SF would choose as a Foreign Minister, Kacer -- referring to himself as Foreign Minister -- allowed that "we don't talk of these things, but, while complicated, personally and otherwise, my friend (the financier) would assure that it would happen." VALLEE