BRAZIL FOREIGN MINISTRY PREDICTS DEEPENED RELATIONS FROM

UNCLAS BRASILIA 001410 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL FOREIGN MINISTRY PREDICTS DEEPENED RELATIONS FROM LULA-GARCIA MEETING REF: LIMA 2427 ¶1. Summary: The June 13 meeting between Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Peruvian President-elect Alan Garcia will increase physical integration, increase information sharing and strengthen political ties between the two neighbors, according to the Brazilian Foreign Ministry (MRE). Poloff was told during a July 10 readout of the meeting that the two presidents also discussed the role that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez played during the Peruvian presidential election and the subsequent chill in Peruvian-Venezuelan relations. Our interlocutor predicted that Garcia's presidency, coupled with Lula's expected reelection, would result in a continuous and significant strengthening of relations between the GoB and the GoP. End Summary ¶2. Poloff met with Lauro Beltrao of the MRE's Division for Meridian America on July 10, to discuss the GoB's impressions of the June 13 meeting between President Lula and President-elect Alan Garcia, of Peru. While Beltrao was not present at the meeting, he shared information he had gleaned from the GoB's internal reports. Beltrao noted that the meeting had been extremely positive and focused on three issues: physical integration, information sharing and strengthened political ties. ¶3. Beltrao opened by noting the excellent relationship shared by Garcia and Lula, pointing out that President Garcia had been the only world leader to call Lula after his failed Presidential bid in ¶1989. As social democrats, possessing similar values, Beltrao believes that Garcia and Lula will remain very close, and possess definitive ideological ties. Those ties, in turn, should lead to stronger ties between Brazil and Peru. He also noted that he believed Garcia would move to strengthen commitments with the United States and Chile. ¶4. During the meeting Lula and Garcia discussed the three pillars on which Brazil and Peru can develop their cooperation. The first is via physical integration projects. The given example was the intercontinental highway which will provide Brazil's first link to the Pacific Ocean, while increasing sorely needed development in the Southern reaches of Peru. Second, Peru and Brazil, by means of an MOU signed in 2003 and implemented in the last few months, would increase information sharing through the SIPAM/SIVAM system for spacial mapping, cartography and prevention of illicit activities in the Amazon regions of both countries. Lastly, the meeting previewed deepening political relations between the countries, especially as relations with Venezuela have soured following Chavez' interference in the Peruvian elections. ¶5. The President's comments on Hugo Chavez emphasized the momentary chill in relations between Venezuela and Peru, Beltrao said. Beltrao believes that Garcia will/has become a target for Chavez and that there may be further deterioration between the two countries. Lula, in this scenario, may play the role of a negotiator and peacekeeper. ¶6. Moving beyond the confines of the Lula-Garcia meeting, Beltrao opined that that Lula's first term as president is a model for Garcia. He sees Garcia promoting foreign investment, pro-market reforms and other sound macroeconomic policies to foment the Peruvian economy's continued growth. Lula's emphasis on social programs may also be a beacon for Garcia, who desperately needs to reach out to a country where 40% of the population lives in poverty. During the meeting the two leaders spoke about implementing a program in Peru similar to the Bolsa Familia. Beltrao ended the meeting by noting that Lula has already committed to attending Garcia's inauguration and that he is very optimistic for the future of the Peru- Brazil relationship. WILLIASON