LEADING POLL CONTINUES TO GIVE URIBE COMMANDING

UNCLAS BOGOTA 000898 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV CO SUBJECT: LEADING POLL CONTINUES TO GIVE URIBE COMMANDING LEAD REF: Bogota 555 ¶1. According to a poll published January 28 in Semana magazine, President Uribe continues to be the overwhelming favorite for the May 28 Presidential election. If voting intentions remain solid, the poll predicts Uribe would win in the first-round with 57 percent of the vote. (The full poll can be reviewed, in Spanish, at www.semana.com.) ¶2. A comparison of movement regarding opinion on President Uribe's record and voting intentions is as follows: Favorability Toward Uribe: September 2005 - 78 percent October 2005 - 72 percent January 2006 - 73 percent Approval of the Uribe Administration: September 2005 - 73 percent October 2005 - 70 percent January 2006 - 68 percent Intention to Vote for Uribe: September 2005 - 56 percent October 2005 - 56 percent January 2006 - 57 percent ¶3. In addition, the poll revealed that Horacio Serpa and Antonio Navarro Wolff continue to be the clear frontrunners for the Liberal Party (PLC) and Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA) Presidential nominations, to be decided in national primaries on March 12 (same day as Congressional elections). Serpa leads the PLC primary race with 41 percent to Rafael Pardo's 9 percent, and Navarro has an 18 percentage point lead over Carlos Gaviria in the PDA primary. Respondents sided with Pardo over President Uribe in the public spat over the former's alleged outreach to the FARC (reftel),contributing to Pardo almost doubling his support among likely voters in the PLC primary. WOOD