PARTICIPANTS IN GOC-ELN EXPLORATORY TALKS UNDER NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 000860 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL CO ELN ELN SUBJECT: PARTICIPANTS IN GOC-ELN EXPLORATORY TALKS UNDER NO ILLUSION OF QUICK SUCCESS REF: BOGOTA 594 Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood. Reason: 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 9. ¶2. (C) Summary. The next formal round of the GOC-ELN exploratory talks will take place in Havana on February 17-28. A preparatory phase for consultations with civil society, including Colombian political parties, press, Church officials, and diplomats from the three "accompanying countries," will be held February 9-16. The principal objective for the second round is to create an agenda for actual negotiations. GOC and ELN officials appear to want to move slowly and are not ready to tackle the substantive issues; the Europeans and civil society guarantors are pressing for faster action. While a third round is likely months off, after presidential elections on May 28, discussions are underway already among the various players to hold it in Europe. End Summary. -------------- Guarantor Daniel Garcia-Pena -------------- ¶3. (C) Garcia-Pena told poloffs on January 26 that the GOC-ELN process was going slowly but would not break down. He stressed that the ELN leadership wants to move slowly because they have not thought through what price they want to pay to "come in from the cold" and because they remain unsure what they really want substantively. Garcia-Pena said the GOC was equally cautious because, likewise, it is unsure how the process is going to go and because of the electoral campaign. ¶4. (C) Garcia-Pena, whom another of the five guarantors has described as the "shadow foreign minister of the ELN" reiterated how surprised the ELN was by the attitude of the Colombian democratic left during the Casa de Paz initiative (consultative process with civil society prior to the first round of talks in Havana). According to Garcia-Pena, representatives of the democratic left told ELN spokesman Galan, "we welcome you but you must give up arms and resolve your problems with Uribe. We don't like him but he is the democratically-elected president of the country." Garcia also said the ELN has kept the FARC closely informed about developments. He characterized the FARC response as "interesting": be careful with Uribe, don't trust him, you shouldn't be doing this but it's your call and we respect your decision. Garcia-Pena underscored that ELN-FARC regional relationships depend on personalities, however, with friendly/cooperative relationships existing alongside conflict. As for the FARC, he said it only knows how to resist, has no plans for political talks and no sense of what it wants. -------------- Peace Commissioner Restrepo's Deputy -------------- ¶5. (C) Ret. Major General Eduardo Herrera, who has been serving as Restrepo's deputy, told polcouns on January 27 that he agreed with the assessment that both sides wanted to move slowly. In his view, neither side really trusted the other, nor was willing to make the necessary concessions to move the talks along. The ELN was still reluctant to agree to anything that would deliver Uribe a political victory and more interested in stabilizing its considerable losses on the battlefield. And the GOC was really not prepared to deal with the ELN's "agenda for transition." Herrera also reported difficulties between the three accompanying European countries (Norway, Spain and Switzerland) and forecasted difficulties down the line between the Europeans and the GOC. The Europeans want things to move faster, he said. They want to be facilitators, not observers. He also said the five guarantors were revealing themselves to be closer to the ELN than the GOC. The veneer of neutrality had almost disappeared. ¶6. (C) Herrera said after the next round in Havana, barring any unforeseen circumstances, formal discussions would be suspended for several months (past the May 28 presidential elections) with a third round perhaps in Geneva, Switzerland. He noted that the Cubans were uncomfortable with the fact that members of civil society (including the press) would be descending on Havana for the February 9-16 pre-talks with not enough to do, and inevitably turn their attention to Cuba's human rights situation or other sensitive issues. -------------- Norwegians Cautiously Optimistic -------------- ¶7. (C) Norway's negotiating team told polcouns over dinner on January 24 that the GOC had to be more assertive in advancing proposals if the next round of exploratory talks with the ELN were to lead to a third. He asked that the U.S. do what it could to push the GOC along these lines. Head of the Foreign Ministry's Latin America Section Herberth Linder and negotiator Johann Vibe were in Bogota to meet with the GOC, ELN Spokesperson Galan (during his consultations in Bogota with civil society and GOC officials per reftel) and Catholic Church officials, along with charge d'affaires in Bogota Sigurd Endressen. Linder also recommended that the talks be moved out of Cuba. While the Cubans continued in a strictly host role, he complained that they caused the delay in the second round, insisting that they could not accommodate everyone in Havana because of Jose Marti-related celebrations. Why should we allow such events to diminish momentum and stand in the way of progress, he said. -------------- Action Requested -------------- ¶8. (C) Embassy would like to approach Bogota-based journalists about focusing on Cuba's human rights situation while in Havana covering the GOC-ELN talks and would appreciate suggestions from the Department on what background material to provide prior to their departure. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) We are not inclined to take up the Norwegian's request to push the GOC for faster action. We have told the Norwegians that the U.S. would be watching this process carefully and would weigh in if the Europeans appeared to be pressuring the GOC to make concessions. Our sense is that both sides want to take this slow. Most importantly, we should not support moving the talks to Europe without the ELN's conceding something for it. WOOD