GOC-ELN PROCESS MIGHT BE PICKING UP STEAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 007494

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2016
TAGS: PTER PGOV MARR PHUM PINR CO
SUBJECT: GOC-ELN PROCESS MIGHT BE PICKING UP STEAM

REF: BOGOTA 6865

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood
Reason: 1.4 (b,d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo will shortly
present ELN military commander and negotiator Antonio Garcia
with a formal GOC peace proposal on cease-fire, disarmament,
and the ELN's possible participation in the political
process, said GOC-ELN civil society guarantor Alejo Vargas.
Restrepo confirmed the outline of the proposal in a recent
dinner with the Ambassador. Vargas said the parties
understood the need for a cease-fire prior to addressing
other substantive topics and were focused on modalities. The
fourth round of talks is expected to convene in Havana in
September, following the NAM Summit. End summary.

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GOC Has Proposal for ELN
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2. (C) Vargas told us ELN negotiator Francisco Galan said on
August 7 Restrepo had prepared a peace proposal for the ELN
and would present it to Garcia personally. Vargas understood
the GOC proposal would address cease-fire, disarmament, and
the ELN's possible participation in the political system.
Vargas' description of the GOC proposal is consistent with
Restrepo's comments in an August 8 dinner with the Ambassador
(septel).


3. (C) Vargas claimed the GOC and ELN understood the need
for a cease-fire before discussing other substantive issues.
He said the principal task now was to define the modalities
of a cease-fire, including where ELN troops would concentrate
and how the organization would finance itself during the
cease-fire period. In an August 5 meeting with us, the
Norwegian MFA point person for the GOC-ELN talks, Johan Vibe,
said he had told guarantors Moritz Akerman and Alvaro Jimenez
in Oslo the ELN suggestion that Norway pay USD 18 million to
finance a six month ELN cease-fire was "not appetizing."
Vibe explained the ELN idea was not new and Norway could not
"reward" the terrorist group in this way. However, Norway
was willing to consider other creative proposals to help
sustain the ELN during a cease-fire if the process was
serious and the GOC and international community approved.



4. (C) Vargas predicted the parties would approach the next
round of talks in Havana (likely to take place after the
September 14-15 NAM Summit in Cuba) in a creative way. Both
Restrepo and Garcia appeared willing to "break the mold" of
traditional peace talks, he said.

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ELN and FARC Processes Linked?
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5. (C) Vargas noted the complex relationship between the
fledgling ELN and possible FARC peace talks. He said the
Pastrana administration relegated the ELN process to a
secondary level because it wanted to concentrate on
delivering a FARC deal. In recent weeks, Vargas had the
impression the GOC was doing the same. Now, however, Vargas
said the GOC appeared ready to test the ELN's commitment to
peace with a serious proposal. If FARC talks eventually got
underway, Vargas said he would worry about the GOC's interest
in combining the processes, which he said would be a mistake.


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ELN Interest in Political Role
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6. (C) Vargas said Garcia and other ELN leaders had long
been interested in a political role, although they did not
necessarily have expectations of being able to run for office
themselves. Political participation would be difficult to
imagine while the ELN remained an armed group. He indicated
one possibility if talks were successful might be lower-level
ELN members running for mayor or local councilor positions.
Vargas did not rule out an ELN interest in competing in 2007
local elections, but said this was unlikely because the
process would probably not be concluded by then.

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Punishment Not Yet on Agenda
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7. (C) Vargas confirmed the ELN had not yet begun to
consider the price it might have to pay to participate in
politics. The guarantors are planning a series of workshops
at the Casa de Paz on this issue. Vargas understood that
future ELN amnesty would likely to be retroactively applied
to the paramilitaries. He said the ELN would be loathe to
have that as its legacy. Vargas suggested that Galan
understood better than other ELN leaders the importance of a
"justice" component to a future peace deal.

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Role of Accompanying Countries
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8. (C) Norwegian MFA representative Vibe said Restrepo had
asked Norway, Switzerland, and Spain to designate a lead
interlocutor on the ELN talks from their respective capitals.
Vibe's impression of Restrepo's request was that the Peace
Commissioner regarded the accompanying countries as too soft
on the ELN and wanted to encourage stiffer action from
capitals. Vibe was the Norwegian designee, and Switzerland
had Ambassador Didier Pfirter following the process. In
Vibe's view, Spain might encounter difficulties as an
accompanying country following Spanish Vice President
Fernandez de la Vega's recent comments in Bogota saying the
Spain-ETA talks were only possible because ETA had not killed
anyone for three years. This could tie Spain's hands, Vibe
suggested.

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ELN Leadership Dynamics
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9. (C) Vibe said his meetings with Galan at the Casa de Paz
had convinced him Galan did not have authority to commit the
ELN. He was an "antennae, not a decision maker." By
contrast, Garcia had the aura of a leader. He frequently got
angry during previous rounds of talks and was prepared to
show it. His soft spoken image and status as a self
proclaimed poet masked a tough negotiator. Guarantor Vargas
said the ELN Central Command (COCE) had apparently elected
its 5th member to replace one who died; the identity of the
new COCE member would tell us something about the
organization's leanings on peace talks.
WOOD