PRESIDENT URIBE WINS REELECTION IN LANDSLIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004729

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV CO
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT URIBE WINS REELECTION IN LANDSLIDE

Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis
Reason: 1.4 (b,d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) President Alvaro Uribe was reelected to a second
consecutive 4-year term on May 28 in a landslide victory with
62 percent of the vote. Uribe won in 30 of Colombia's 32
Departments. Second place went to the leftist Polo
Democratico Alternativo's Carlos Gaviria with 22 percent,
which represented the best showing by the left in a
presidential election in Colombian history. The Polo pushed
Colombia's once-dominant Liberal Party into a weak third
place; Liberal nominee Horacio Serpa trailed with 11.8
percent, the party's worst result in decades. Voters cast
their ballots in peaceful and secure conditions throughout
the country. Septels will address Uribe's second term
challenges and the future of the left. End summary.

--------------
Uribe Wins Convincingly
--------------


2. (U) Uribe was reelected for a consecutive four-year term
on May 28 with 62.2 percent of the vote. His closest
challenger was the Polo's Carlos Gaviria, who obtained 22
percent. The Liberal Party's Horacio Serpa came third with
11.8 percent. Former Bogota Mayor Mockus fared poorly,
attracting only 146,000 votes, or 1.2 percent. Uribe got
over 7,363,000 votes, surpassing the former highest total a
winning presidential candidate has received (Andres Pastrana
in 1998) and significantly more than when he won the
presidency for the first time in 2002, when he obtained
5,862, 655 (53 percent). With 99.86 percent of the votes
counted, more voters turned out in 2006 (12,058,788) than in
2002 (11,248,734),although as a percentage of eligible
voters the turnout stayed roughly the same (45.11 percent in
2006 versus 46.47 percent four years earlier). Uribe's
victory was sweeping across the country. He won 30 of
Colombia's 32 Departments (up from 18 in 2002),including
significant majorities in 31 cities. His losses to Gaviria
in the Departments of Narino (on the Pacific coast bordering
Ecuador) and Guajira (on the Atlantic coast bordering
Venezuela) were by slim margins. Uribe will be inaugurated
on August 7.

--------------
Left Makes Significant Inroads
--------------


3. (U) The left also proclaimed victory on May 28. The
Polo's Carlos Gaviria won 2.6 million votes, impressive when
compared to the left's highest-ever vote in Colombia, Antonio
Navarro's 754,000 total in 1990 (12.5 percent). With the
exception of Navarro's 1990 result, the left has never broken
10 percent in any presidential election. Gaviria pushed
Liberal Party candidate Serpa into third place, almost
doubling Serpa's vote total (1.4 million). The Polo defeated
the Liberals in 26 of 32 Departments.

--------------
Liberals in Disarray
--------------


4. (SBU) The most obvious losers were the Liberals. Serpa's
performance was dismal. The Liberals have averaged over 50
percent of the vote over 6 decades, but Serpa managed only
11.8 percent, a dramatic decline from even his own poor
result when running against Uribe in 2002 (31.8 percent).
Serpa lost in 14 Departments that he won in 2002, and failed
to persuade Liberals to give him their support. Serpa got
about 350,000 votes more than he attracted in the March
Liberal primary, but was unable to attract about 800,000
people who voted for Liberal candidates other than Serpa in
that primary. Serpa lost in traditional Liberal bastions,
including along the Atlantic Coast, in the key Departments of
Cordoba, Sucre, Cesar, San Andres, and Bolivar.

--------------
Concession and Victory Speeches
--------------


5. (SBU) Serpa's concession speech was striking for its
barely concealed lack of grace. He said Uribe had "won but
not convinced." He claimed he was satisfied with his
performance. Gaviria and his Polo supporters were exuberant
but equally self-focused. Gaviria, who has said his task is
to build the Polo into a party capable of challenging for the
presidency in 2010, said the Polo must be careful how it
manages its success. He repeated several times that the
party was united and called for responsible opposition.
Mockus was the only candidate who publicly and explicitly
congratulated Uribe. For his part, the President struck a
magnanimous tone in his remarks, saying his political
opponents are not enemies, but rather competitors. He
reached out to the Congress, committing to work with its
members more productively than in his first term.

--------------
Comment
--------------


6. (C) Uribe's victory was overwhelming, but the biggest
winner on May 28 was Colombian democracy. Voters cast their
ballots in peaceful and secure conditions throughout the
country. With regard to the Liberals, one major issue is
whether the electorate will see Serpa's loss (his third in
three presidential attempts) as primarily personal, or will
now stay away from the party no matter who is its candidate.
For the Polo, despite Gaviria's emphasis on unity the party
is split into at least three factions (the more moderate of
which, represented by Bogota Mayor Garzon, was conspicuous by
its absence on Gaviria's "victory" podium on May 28) and will
struggle to paper over the cracks. Uribe's 2002 win started
the slow disintegration of Colombia's traditional Liberal and
Conservative two party system, and the May 28 result
confirmed the trend. Septels will address the prospects for
Uribe's second term and the future of the left.
WOOD