PRESIDENT URIBE WINS REELECTION IN LANDSLIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004729 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2016 TAGS: PGOV CO SUBJECT: PRESIDENT URIBE WINS REELECTION IN LANDSLIDE Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis Reason: 1.4 (b,d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) President Alvaro Uribe was reelected to a second consecutive 4-year term on May 28 in a landslide victory with 62 percent of the vote. Uribe won in 30 of Colombia's 32 Departments. Second place went to the leftist Polo Democratico Alternativo's Carlos Gaviria with 22 percent, which represented the best showing by the left in a presidential election in Colombian history. The Polo pushed Colombia's once-dominant Liberal Party into a weak third place; Liberal nominee Horacio Serpa trailed with 11.8 percent, the party's worst result in decades. Voters cast their ballots in peaceful and secure conditions throughout the country. Septels will address Uribe's second term challenges and the future of the left. End summary. -------------- Uribe Wins Convincingly -------------- ¶2. (U) Uribe was reelected for a consecutive four-year term on May 28 with 62.2 percent of the vote. His closest challenger was the Polo's Carlos Gaviria, who obtained 22 percent. The Liberal Party's Horacio Serpa came third with 11.8 percent. Former Bogota Mayor Mockus fared poorly, attracting only 146,000 votes, or 1.2 percent. Uribe got over 7,363,000 votes, surpassing the former highest total a winning presidential candidate has received (Andres Pastrana in 1998) and significantly more than when he won the presidency for the first time in 2002, when he obtained 5,862, 655 (53 percent). With 99.86 percent of the votes counted, more voters turned out in 2006 (12,058,788) than in 2002 (11,248,734),although as a percentage of eligible voters the turnout stayed roughly the same (45.11 percent in 2006 versus 46.47 percent four years earlier). Uribe's victory was sweeping across the country. He won 30 of Colombia's 32 Departments (up from 18 in 2002),including significant majorities in 31 cities. His losses to Gaviria in the Departments of Narino (on the Pacific coast bordering Ecuador) and Guajira (on the Atlantic coast bordering Venezuela) were by slim margins. Uribe will be inaugurated on August 7. -------------- Left Makes Significant Inroads -------------- ¶3. (U) The left also proclaimed victory on May 28. The Polo's Carlos Gaviria won 2.6 million votes, impressive when 
compared to the left's highest-ever vote in Colombia, Antonio Navarro's 754,000 total in 1990 (12.5 percent). With the exception of Navarro's 1990 result, the left has never broken 10 percent in any presidential election. Gaviria pushed Liberal Party candidate Serpa into third place, almost doubling Serpa's vote total (1.4 million). The Polo defeated the Liberals in 26 of 32 Departments. -------------- Liberals in Disarray -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The most obvious losers were the Liberals. Serpa's performance was dismal. The Liberals have averaged over 50 percent of the vote over 6 decades, but Serpa managed only 11.8 percent, a dramatic decline from even his own poor result when running against Uribe in 2002 (31.8 percent). Serpa lost in 14 Departments that he won in 2002, and failed to persuade Liberals to give him their support. Serpa got about 350,000 votes more than he attracted in the March Liberal primary, but was unable to attract about 800,000 people who voted for Liberal candidates other than Serpa in that primary. Serpa lost in traditional Liberal bastions, including along the Atlantic Coast, in the key Departments of Cordoba, Sucre, Cesar, San Andres, and Bolivar. -------------- Concession and Victory Speeches -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Serpa's concession speech was striking for its barely concealed lack of grace. He said Uribe had "won but not convinced." He claimed he was satisfied with his performance. Gaviria and his Polo supporters were exuberant but equally self-focused. Gaviria, who has said his task is to build the Polo into a party capable of challenging for the presidency in 2010, said the Polo must be careful how it manages its success. He repeated several times that the party was united and called for responsible opposition. Mockus was the only candidate who publicly and explicitly congratulated Uribe. For his part, the President struck a magnanimous tone in his remarks, saying his political opponents are not enemies, but rather competitors. He reached out to the Congress, committing to work with its members more productively than in his first term. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Uribe's victory was overwhelming, but the biggest winner on May 28 was Colombian democracy. Voters cast their ballots in peaceful and secure conditions throughout the country. With regard to the Liberals, one major issue is whether the electorate will see Serpa's loss (his third in three presidential attempts) as primarily personal, or will now stay away from the party no matter who is its candidate. For the Polo, despite Gaviria's emphasis on unity the party is split into at least three factions (the more moderate of which, represented by Bogota Mayor Garzon, was conspicuous by its absence on Gaviria's "victory" podium on May 28) and will struggle to paper over the cracks. Uribe's 2002 win started the slow disintegration of Colombia's traditional Liberal and Conservative two party system, and the May 28 result confirmed the trend. Septels will address the prospects for Uribe's second term and the future of the left. WOOD