Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BOGOTA4712
2006-05-26 21:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bogota
how-toVZCZCXYZ0003 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHBO #4712/01 1462104 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 262104Z MAY 06 FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5301 INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 0440 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6834 RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1902 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY LIMA 3807 RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2845 RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 9176 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4447 RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2063 RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 3566 RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004712
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: FINAL ELECTORAL ROUNDUP
Classified By: PolCouns Jeffrey DeLaurentis, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004712
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: FINAL ELECTORAL ROUNDUP
Classified By: PolCouns Jeffrey DeLaurentis, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.
1. (U) This is the last election roundup before presidential
elections on Sunday, May 28.
2. (C) Uribe vs. Gaviria: The Polo's Carlos Gaviria appears
to have positioned himself as the second-place finisher on
May 28, despite the electoral machinery advantage of the
Liberal Party (PLC) and its nominee, Horacio Serpa. While
all indications are that Uribe will attain the necessary 50
plus percent to win in the first round, Gaviria could attain
well over 20 percent of the vote. Presidential
Communications Director Jaime Bermudez told A/S Shannon May
26 that his latest poll showed Uribe with 60 percent, Gaviria
with 21 percent and Serpa with 5 percent. Bermudez predicted
Uribe would ultimately get 54-56 percent, with 11 million
turnout. In the last week, Gaviria has harshly criticized
the Uribe campaign for allegedly planting press stories
linking Gaviria to Hugo Chavez and the Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia (FARC). Drawing on allegations of vote
fraud (under investigation by the Prosecutor General's
Office) in 2002, Gaviria and Polo leaders claim the GOC is
orchestrating an extra-legal, pro-Uribe vote push, using
state resources. The Uribe campaign, meanwhile, has
expressed concern that Polo has enlisted members of the
national teachers union (many of whom will serve as poll
station workers) to entice voters to cast ballots for
Gaviria. Bermudez told Shannon that Polo had hired 3,000
taxis in Barranquilla on Sunday; in general, he said, the
opposition candidates had outspent Uribe considerably.
3. (C) Tidbits from the Uribe Camp: In separate
conversations with poloff, three pro-Uribe members of
Congress (all re-elected in March) expressed some concern
over the lack of vote mobilization efforts in favor of the
President. Senator Manuel Guillermo Mora (National Unity
Party, Norte de Santander Department),a former mayor of
Cucuta (Norte de Santander),said the President's campaign
was giving few resources to departmental campaign leaders to
get out the vote. Instead, the campaign was putting
virtually all funds into national-based media spots.
Representative William Ortega (Radical Change Party,
Antioquia Department) expressed a similar concern and told
poloff that Polo's Gaviria was making strong inroads in his
department (Uribe's home turf). Representative Alfredo
Cuello (Conservative Party, Cesar Department) stated that
many pro-Uribe MOCs were paying mere lip service to the
President in terms of promising votes on game day.
Nevertheless, all three MOCs agreed Uribe would win in the
first round, with 54 to 56 percent of the vote.
4. (SBU) Election Monitoring: Embassy election monitors will
spend May 28 visiting polling stations in various locations
in Bogota, Cali, Medellin, Barranquilla, and Bucaramanga.
Representative Gregory Meeks (D-NY),invited by President
Uribe, will also participate in election monitoring
activities in Bogota. The National Electoral Council has
rolled out the red carpet for international observers.
Planned activities include meetings with all Presidential
candidates. At meeting for election observers on May 25,
Polo Party head Samuel Moreno warned of imminent fraud (in
favor of Uribe) and complained that electoral entities were
void of Polo representation. German Vargas Lleras and Carlos
Holguin, heads of the Radical Change and Conservative
parties, refuted Moreno and argued that transparency was
guaranteed. The OAS has released a preliminary report
praising Colombian election preparations and technical
assistance provided to international observers.
5. (U) Voting Logistics - Finger Inking and Tally Issues:
The National Registrar (Registraduria),the entity charged
with overseeing the elections, made two procedural
announcements May 25. First, voters' fingers will be marked
with ink to avoid multiple voting attempts. Second, votes
for Alvaro Leyva, the National Reconciliation Movement
candidate who withdrew from the race on May 13, will be
counted for voter turnout totals.
WOOD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: FINAL ELECTORAL ROUNDUP
Classified By: PolCouns Jeffrey DeLaurentis, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.
1. (U) This is the last election roundup before presidential
elections on Sunday, May 28.
2. (C) Uribe vs. Gaviria: The Polo's Carlos Gaviria appears
to have positioned himself as the second-place finisher on
May 28, despite the electoral machinery advantage of the
Liberal Party (PLC) and its nominee, Horacio Serpa. While
all indications are that Uribe will attain the necessary 50
plus percent to win in the first round, Gaviria could attain
well over 20 percent of the vote. Presidential
Communications Director Jaime Bermudez told A/S Shannon May
26 that his latest poll showed Uribe with 60 percent, Gaviria
with 21 percent and Serpa with 5 percent. Bermudez predicted
Uribe would ultimately get 54-56 percent, with 11 million
turnout. In the last week, Gaviria has harshly criticized
the Uribe campaign for allegedly planting press stories
linking Gaviria to Hugo Chavez and the Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia (FARC). Drawing on allegations of vote
fraud (under investigation by the Prosecutor General's
Office) in 2002, Gaviria and Polo leaders claim the GOC is
orchestrating an extra-legal, pro-Uribe vote push, using
state resources. The Uribe campaign, meanwhile, has
expressed concern that Polo has enlisted members of the
national teachers union (many of whom will serve as poll
station workers) to entice voters to cast ballots for
Gaviria. Bermudez told Shannon that Polo had hired 3,000
taxis in Barranquilla on Sunday; in general, he said, the
opposition candidates had outspent Uribe considerably.
3. (C) Tidbits from the Uribe Camp: In separate
conversations with poloff, three pro-Uribe members of
Congress (all re-elected in March) expressed some concern
over the lack of vote mobilization efforts in favor of the
President. Senator Manuel Guillermo Mora (National Unity
Party, Norte de Santander Department),a former mayor of
Cucuta (Norte de Santander),said the President's campaign
was giving few resources to departmental campaign leaders to
get out the vote. Instead, the campaign was putting
virtually all funds into national-based media spots.
Representative William Ortega (Radical Change Party,
Antioquia Department) expressed a similar concern and told
poloff that Polo's Gaviria was making strong inroads in his
department (Uribe's home turf). Representative Alfredo
Cuello (Conservative Party, Cesar Department) stated that
many pro-Uribe MOCs were paying mere lip service to the
President in terms of promising votes on game day.
Nevertheless, all three MOCs agreed Uribe would win in the
first round, with 54 to 56 percent of the vote.
4. (SBU) Election Monitoring: Embassy election monitors will
spend May 28 visiting polling stations in various locations
in Bogota, Cali, Medellin, Barranquilla, and Bucaramanga.
Representative Gregory Meeks (D-NY),invited by President
Uribe, will also participate in election monitoring
activities in Bogota. The National Electoral Council has
rolled out the red carpet for international observers.
Planned activities include meetings with all Presidential
candidates. At meeting for election observers on May 25,
Polo Party head Samuel Moreno warned of imminent fraud (in
favor of Uribe) and complained that electoral entities were
void of Polo representation. German Vargas Lleras and Carlos
Holguin, heads of the Radical Change and Conservative
parties, refuted Moreno and argued that transparency was
guaranteed. The OAS has released a preliminary report
praising Colombian election preparations and technical
assistance provided to international observers.
5. (U) Voting Logistics - Finger Inking and Tally Issues:
The National Registrar (Registraduria),the entity charged
with overseeing the elections, made two procedural
announcements May 25. First, voters' fingers will be marked
with ink to avoid multiple voting attempts. Second, votes
for Alvaro Leyva, the National Reconciliation Movement
candidate who withdrew from the race on May 13, will be
counted for voter turnout totals.
WOOD