LEADING LIBERAL SENATORS ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004565 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2021 TAGS: PGOV PINR CO SUBJECT: LEADING LIBERAL SENATORS ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND FUTURE OF THE PARTY Classified By: PolCouns Jeffrey DeLaurentis, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. ¶1. (C) Summary: Three leading Liberal Party (PLC) senators told us recently that Horacio Serpa would defy poll data and finish second in the May 28 Presidential election. They argued the PLC would not disintegrate after the election, but would re-organize in advance of an eventual pendulum swing back to the center during the second Uribe Administration. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In a dinner meeting on May 16, poloff discussed the Presidential election and Liberal Party (PLC) internal dynamics with Senators Juan Manuel Lopez, Mario Salomon Nader, and Juan Fernando Cristo. All three concurred that President Uribe would win on May 28, surpassing the 50 percent threshold to avoid a run-off. In spite of recent poll numbers and press speculation placing Polo nominee Carlos Gaviria ahead of PLC nominee Horacio Serpa, the three argued that well-oiled PLC electoral machinery would deliver second place for Serpa. They argued that national polling underestimates rural and Atlantic Coast electoral preferences, areas where Serpa is still relatively strong. ¶3. (C) The senators lamented that Serpa fails to listen to counsel from PLC heavyweights and simply relies on a small group of advisors. They recognized that Serpa is viewed negatively by the majority of Colombians and even the best campaign apparatus would not enable him to challenge Uribe. The ideal scenario, per the Senators, would have been for one major PLC figure to have challenged Serpa in the party's March 12 primary. The presence of three centrist PLC rivals to Serpa made it possible for him to eke out victory with 49 percent of the vote. ¶4. (C) When asked about the future of the PLC in the face of imminent electoral debacle, the senators argued for the staying power of Colombia's oldest party. They said four more years of Uribe would lead to a political pendulum swing back toward the center. The senators pointed to outgoing Senator Rodrigo Rivera (who competed against Serpa in the primary) as the front-runner to energize the centrists within the PLC between this election and the 2010 Presidential contest. They also believed party head Cesar Gaviria would stay on after the election. ¶5. (C) Comment: While polls show the Polo's Gaviria in second place, we do not discount the possibility that PLC machinery might help Serpa eke out a second place finish. Although some commentators write off the PLC post-May 28, we note the party still controls just over half the governorships and a plurality of mayorships in Colombia. PLC up-and-comers like Rivera might be able to rejuvenate the party after its imminent defeat. Another factor will be whether the newer parties, like National Unity (U), supporting President Uribe, will return to the PLC fold when Uribe finishes his second term. The task will not be easy, however. End Comment. ¶6. (U) Biographical notes: Lopez and Nader are Cordoba Department natives. Both sit on the Senate Third Committee, which handles taxes and revenue issues. Lopez was the third highest overall voter getter in Senate elections held on March 12 (Senate is decided on a national, not local, level). Cristo is a native of North Santander Department. He is a former PLC party head (2004-2005) and ambassador to Greece. He sits on the Senate First Committee, which handles Constitutional and legal issues. His father, then a sitting senator, was killed by guerrillas (officially attributed to the ELN, as we understand it) in the mid 1990s. WOOD