LEADING LIBERAL SENATORS ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004565

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2021
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: LEADING LIBERAL SENATORS ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
AND FUTURE OF THE PARTY


Classified By: PolCouns Jeffrey DeLaurentis, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.


1. (C) Summary: Three leading Liberal Party (PLC) senators
told us recently that Horacio Serpa would defy poll data and
finish second in the May 28 Presidential election. They
argued the PLC would not disintegrate after the election, but
would re-organize in advance of an eventual pendulum swing
back to the center during the second Uribe Administration.
End Summary.


2. (C) In a dinner meeting on May 16, poloff discussed the
Presidential election and Liberal Party (PLC) internal
dynamics with Senators Juan Manuel Lopez, Mario Salomon
Nader, and Juan Fernando Cristo. All three concurred that
President Uribe would win on May 28, surpassing the 50
percent threshold to avoid a run-off. In spite of recent
poll numbers and press speculation placing Polo nominee
Carlos Gaviria ahead of PLC nominee Horacio Serpa, the three
argued that well-oiled PLC electoral machinery would deliver
second place for Serpa. They argued that national polling
underestimates rural and Atlantic Coast electoral
preferences, areas where Serpa is still relatively strong.


3. (C) The senators lamented that Serpa fails to listen to
counsel from PLC heavyweights and simply relies on a small
group of advisors. They recognized that Serpa is viewed
negatively by the majority of Colombians and even the best
campaign apparatus would not enable him to challenge Uribe.
The ideal scenario, per the Senators, would have been for one
major PLC figure to have challenged Serpa in the party's
March 12 primary. The presence of three centrist PLC rivals
to Serpa made it possible for him to eke out victory with 49
percent of the vote.


4. (C) When asked about the future of the PLC in the face of
imminent electoral debacle, the senators argued for the
staying power of Colombia's oldest party. They said four
more years of Uribe would lead to a political pendulum swing
back toward the center. The senators pointed to outgoing
Senator Rodrigo Rivera (who competed against Serpa in the
primary) as the front-runner to energize the centrists within
the PLC between this election and the 2010 Presidential
contest. They also believed party head Cesar Gaviria would
stay on after the election.


5. (C) Comment: While polls show the Polo's Gaviria in
second place, we do not discount the possibility that PLC
machinery might help Serpa eke out a second place finish.
Although some commentators write off the PLC post-May 28, we
note the party still controls just over half the
governorships and a plurality of mayorships in Colombia. PLC
up-and-comers like Rivera might be able to rejuvenate the
party after its imminent defeat. Another factor will be
whether the newer parties, like National Unity (U),
supporting President Uribe, will return to the PLC fold when
Uribe finishes his second term. The task will not be easy,
however. End Comment.


6. (U) Biographical notes: Lopez and Nader are Cordoba
Department natives. Both sit on the Senate Third Committee,
which handles taxes and revenue issues. Lopez was the third
highest overall voter getter in Senate elections held on
March 12 (Senate is decided on a national, not local, level).
Cristo is a native of North Santander Department. He is a
former PLC party head (2004-2005) and ambassador to Greece.
He sits on the Senate First Committee, which handles
Constitutional and legal issues. His father, then a sitting
senator, was killed by guerrillas (officially attributed to
the ELN, as we understand it) in the mid 1990s.
WOOD