WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - MAY 8-15

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004351 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016 TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - MAY 8-15 REF: A. BOGOTA 4348 ¶B. BOGOTA 4223 Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis; Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (U) Weekly election roundup for May 8-14. ¶2. (C) Alvaro Leyva Drops Out of Presidential Race: National Reconciliation Movement candidate Alvaro Leyva withdrew from the race on May 13. Leyva, who has maintained links with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and continues to press for negotiations, had promised to end the internal conflict within six months if elected. In his withdrawal speech, Leyva complained that the campaign had been "dangerous" and marked by "inequality," a reference to Uribe's status as president-candidate and his refusal to debate. He said he would better serve his country as a "symbol of peace" out of elective politics. Leyva's campaign had limited funds and poor poll showings. ¶3. (C) "We Are Not Anti-Election," Says FARC: FARC spokesman Luis Edgar Devia, aka Raul Reyes, announced May 12 that the FARC will not sabotage or otherwise interfere with the presidential elections, saying "we are not anti-elections." Reyes encouraged voters to "vote for any candidate other than the President," whom he called a "prop of the United States" and a danger to the Colombian people and their neighbors. Reyes said Uribe is pro-war and called on voters to elect a president interested in peace. Unlike the National Liberation Army's March 2 announcement that it would not interfere with congressional elections, the FARC did not say it would cease hostilities and allow people to vote in peace. While encouraging at first glance, this latest FARC declaration would suggest either they are unable to execute attacks to disrupt the elections as they have in the past, or they hope to lull voters into a false sense of security (Ref A). ¶4. (C) A Dull Campaign: Uribe's National Unity Party (Partido de la "U") leader Juan Manuel Santos told polcouns on May 9 that the presidential campaign was "dull," mostly because Uribe was already the presumed winner. He expected the president to receive about 55 percent of the vote. He said the other candidates were conducting a well-orchestrated campaign of personal attacks against Uribe, and trying to resurrect past allegations of paramilitary ties. The campaign, according to Santos, was almost "issue-free." He also predicted that a second Uribe administration would be more difficult than the first, that Uribe would need a "tougher and more sophisticated" cabinet, and that Uribe had to be more inclusive and collaborative with the political parties to move his agenda through the Congress. ¶5. (C) Former President Gaviria Breaks Silence, Returns to Campaign Trail: Breaking his silence for the first time since his sister Liliana's murder April 27, former president and current Liberal Party head Cesar Gaviria said he was returning to the campaign trail in the two weeks before the presidential elections (but told us privately he would likely step down as Liberal Party chief afterwards). Gaviria said his family has been silent since Liliana's murder because they did not want to make her death a political issue and did not want to engender vengeance. Per Ref B, Gaviria agreed with the GOC that the FARC appears to be responsible for his sister's death. ¶6. (C) Ensuring Voter Turnout to Deliver First Round Victory for Uribe: While polls continue to show Uribe holding steady at anywhere from 54-58 percent of the vote - enough for a first round victory - Uribe's campaign staff is taking no chances. They worry in particular about low voter turnout. The usual high rate of absenteeism (almost 60 percent of eligible voters did not vote in the March 12 congressional elections) coupled with Uribe's commanding lead in the polls could dissuade even more voters from going to the polls on May 28. As a result, the Uribe campaign is organizing a major "get out the vote" effort with the media and private sector, directed at all voters, that will include discounts at popular food stores and restaurants for those who vote. ¶7. (U) Internet Campaign for a "Blank Vote" Gaining Momentum, But Not Enough: University students and internet users have mounted a campaign to encourage voters not to vote for a candidate, but to enter a "blank vote" (vote en blanco). Colombian ballots present "blank votes" as an option; marking the "blank vote" box permits a voter to express dissatisfaction with all candidates on the ballot. Under Colombian law, if the "blank vote" garners 50 percent plus one of the votes, new elections, with all new candidates, are mandatory. A Gallup poll released at the end of April shows 4.4 percent of likely national voters intend to mark the blank vote option; the movement may be localized in Bogota, with 10 percent of polled residents saying they intend to use the blank vote. A similar "voto en blanco" movement garnered an unprecedented 30 percent of the vote during Cartagena mayoral elections last October. ¶8. (U) Candidates Low Key on Decision to Decriminalize Abortion: Presidential candidates have not said much following last Wednesday's Constitutional Court decision to decriminalize abortion to protect the life and health of the mother, if the fetus is so deformed it cannot survive or in case of rape or incest. Only leftist Polo Democratico Alternativo (PDA) candidate Carlos Gaviria has made an official statement; consistent with the PDA platform, Gaviria supported the decision, saying that legal abortion is an issue of gender equality. In a terse statement, Liberal candidate Horacio Serpa supported the decision to decriminalize abortion in limited cases. Prior to the decision, Indigenous Social Movement candidate Antanas Mockus said all abortion should be legal. In an interview with Caracol Radio, President Uribe said he respects the decision of the Court, but declined to discuss the details of the decision or how it will be implemented. Prior to Wednesday's decision, abortion was illegal. The issue - and the decision - have polarized largely Catholic Colombia and the local Episcopal Conference has threatened to excommunicate Constitutional Court judges as well as women who have abortions. ¶9. (U) International Election Observation Scheduled for 200 Municipalities: The National Election Commission, the military and the representatives of the candidates have selected 200 municipalities in 13 Departments for international electoral observers from the Organization of American States and the European Union to monitor during the presidential elections. International participants will observe in locations, primarily along the north coast and in the southwest, where public order and/or pressure from illegal armed groups are concerns. The military will conduct inspections in each municipality in the coming days to ensure damage to roads and other infrastructure caused by flooding in recent months, as well as communications and security issues, are not obstacles to the observation missions. Emboffs will observe elections in Bogota and 3-4 other cities. -------------- OTHER POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS -------------- ¶10. (U) Former DAS Director Resigns, Will Face Electoral Fraud Charges: Former head of the Department of Administrative Security (DAS, FBI equivalent) and current Colombian Consul in Milan Jorge Noguera resigned this week after the Fiscalia announced he was the subject of a formal investigation for fraud during the 2002 elections. A former DAS employee said Noguera, who has been accused of links to paramilitary groups, was involved in election irregularities aimed at ensuring pro-paramilitary candidates won congressional seats. In 2002, Noguera managed Uribe's presidential campaign in Magdalena Department. ¶11. (C) Another Sign of Potential Rifts in the Uribista Congressional Coalition?: Contacts from the National Unity ("U") and Conservative (PCC) parties have told us the cohesion of the pro-Uribe Congressional coalition is under strain over the election of the next Senate President and House Speaker (to be decided when the new Congress takes office on July 20). Conventional wisdom had held that the Senate post would go to the U Party and the House to the PCC. Our sources now tell us the reverse is likely to happen -- Senate to the PCC and House to the U Party. The reversal, we are told, owes to two factors: First, concern by the U Party that Radical Change Senators, led by Senator German Vargas Lleras, were likely to publicly vote against the U Party Senate president candidate; and, second, internal division within the U Party as to which Senator would be their nominee for the post. ¶12. (C) Or Maybe Not: U Party leader Juan Manuel Santos told polcouns on May 9 that he and Radical Change Party leader German Vargas Lleras were trying to end their long-simmering feud. They met privately on May 8 for the first time in months and agreed to work together after Uribe's assumed re-election. According to Santos, rumors that Vargas Lleras would remove his party from the coalition of pro-Uribe parties and join forces with the Liberal Party after the May 28 elections, were untrue. WOOD