WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - MAY 1-7

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004083 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - MAY 1-7 REF: A. BOGOTA 3773 ¶B. BOGOTA 3764 ¶C. BOGOTA 3809 Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis; Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (U) Election roundup for May 1-7. ¶2. (C) FARC Attacks Local Government Leaders in Run Up to Elections: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) has stepped up attakcs on local government officials in the run up to the May 28 presidential elections. To date, 16 city council members from three towns in and around Huila Department have been killed. The most brutal attack occurred February 27 in the town of Rivera (prior to congressional elections on March 12),when FARC members dressed as police opened fire on a hotel where the city council was meeting, killing nine members. On May 4, the entire municipal council of the rural town of Villavieja resigned and fled to the nearby provincial capital of Neiva, saying they feared for their lives. Violence toward local elected leaders is consistent with the FARC's past anti-election modus operandi: more than 79 city council members were killed ahead of the 2002 presidential elections, according to the head of the National Federal of City Councils. Initial reports from the Fiscalia (Prosecutor General) suggest that the murder of Liliana Gaviria, sister of former president Ceasar Gaviria, was another strike by the FARC (Ref A). In addition to threats and attacks, the FARC's efforts to intimidate voters also include propaganda campaigns. ¶3. (U) Conservative Party Votes Against Re-Election of Mayors, Governors: A ninth effort to allow the re-election of governors and mayors has failed to make it out of the Senate's First Committee, despite the personal support of President Uribe, as a result of an alliance of unusual bedfellows: the Liberal Party, the leftist PDA, and the Conservative Party (PCC). The PCC, which is part of the Uribista congressional coalition but does not consider itself an Uribista party, acted out of self-interest, demonstrating the limits of the Party's loyalty to Uribe. The Party did not want to hamper efforts to increase the currently small number of PCC mayors and governors in the 2007 elections. The PCC has not ruled out supporting local government re-election in the future. ¶4. (U) Official Results of Presidential Primaries: The National Electoral Commission published the official results of the Liberal Party and Polo Democratico Alternativo primary elections held concurrently with the March 12 congressional elections. On the Liberal side, Horacio Serpa received just under 49 percent of the votes cast for candidates (1,185,348 of the total 2,435,407 votes). Rafael Pardo and Rodrigo Rivera finished neck and neck, with 23 percent and 22 percent of the vote, respectively. Andres Gonzalez finished last, with about 5 percent of the vote or 135,539 votes - fewer votes than the 220,918 unmarked cards submitted by voters. Carlos Gaviria won the PDA primary with almost 53 percent of 1,349,074 votes cast. Antonio Navarro Wolf finished a close second with about 47 percent of the vote. ¶5. (U) The Polls - Uribe Holding at 56 Percent: Despite a tumultuous two weeks that included extensive coverage of the DAS scandal and the murder of Liliana Gaviria, Uribe's poll numbers have remained constant, at about 56 percent, according to a recent poll for various news agencies reported in Semana magazine. The same poll showed Liberal candidate Horacio Serpa falling from 25 percent to 15 percent since March. In the coming election rematch with Serpa, Uribe is in a better position than in 2002: poll results indicate more optimism in Colombia, with almost 50 percent of voters agreeing Colombia in on the right path compared with only 11 percent in 2002. Moreover, Serpa has a lower favorability rating than he had going into the 2002 elections. PDA candidate Carlos Gaviria has gained four points in recent weeks, but at 13 percent remains unable to challenge Uribe. WOOD