WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - APRIL 21-28

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003809 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016 TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP - APRIL 21-28 REF: A. BOGOTA 3764 ¶B. BOGOTA 3444 Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) This is the first in a series of election roundup cables leading up to the presidential elections on May 28, ¶2006. ¶2. (SBU) The Latest Polls, Part 1 - Uribe Slips in Polls, But Still Has Commanding Lead: A Gallup poll released April 27, just over a month before the elections, shows Uribe's popularity has slipped 8 points to 56 percent since the last poll in March, falling closer to the 50 percent needed to avoid a second round run-off election. Local media speculates prospective voters are concerned about the widening corruption scandal involving the Department of Administrative Security (DAS, FBI equivalent) (ref A). Despite the drop, Uribe's challengers still lag far behind him: Left-leaning Polo Democratico Alternativo candidate Carlos Gaviria jumped 4 points to 14 percent but is still behind Uribe's closet challenger, Liberal Party candidate, Horacio Serpa, who also experienced a drop on the polls, falling to 18 percent. Former Bogota mayor Antanas Mockus received 2.5 percent of likely votes. The remaining three candidates did not top one percent: Alvaro Leyva, one tenth of a percent; Carlos Rincon, two tenths of a percent; and Enrique Parejo, four tenths of a percent. The same poll also showed Uribe beating Serpa by more than 30 percent in the event of a run-off election. ¶3. (U) The Latest Polls, Part II - Economic Issues Top Voters Concerns: Consistent with views expressed by local leaders and candidates prior to the March 12 congressional elections, the latest Gallup poll shows voters are more concerned about unemployment than the ongoing internal conflict. Fifty percent of voters said the principal problem facing the country was the economy and chief among economic concerns was reducing unemployment. Almost 50 percent of probable voters said President Uribe was the candidate best able to address unemployment and improve both the quality of education and health care. ¶4. (SBU) No Surprises at Second Unofficial Debate: During a second unofficial debate (ref B) (sponsored by and carried only on City TV) on April 23, presidential candidates provided expected responses to questions about the Colombian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and extradition, among other issues. Neither President Uribe nor Alvaro Leyva participated in the forum. The President has said he will not participate in any debates; Leyva, who participated in the first unofficial debate, cited "concerns for his personal security" as his reason for not attending. The GOC has yet to provide details about the three authorized official presidential debates, which would be carried on all public stations. ¶5. (C) Uribista Congressional Coalition Divided over Re-election of Mayors, Governors: A bill to reform the Constitution to allow reelection for mayors and governors -- strongly and publicly supported by President Uribe -- is close to being shelved as the Conservative Party (PCC) appears ready to split from the Uribista coalition on the issue. PCC members, including former House Speaker Alonso Acosta, tell us that given their strong performance in legislative elections, they hope to be able to increase their number of mayor- and governorships in elections to be held in late 2007. Over time, other pro-Uribe MOCs (including members of U and Radical Change parties) have expressed similar resistance to allowing local-level reelection. (This is the ninth attempt since 1995 to reform the Constitution in such terms.) The PCC is to meet again on the issue before the week of May 1. PCC resistance reaffirms the at times uneasy nature of the multi-party, pro-Uribe congressional coalition. ¶6. (U) Alvaro Leyva Claims Army Helicopter Held Him Hostage: During an April 24 press conference, National Reconciliation Movement presidential candidate Alvaro Leyva said he was held hostage aboard a boat on the Tapaje River in Narino Department by an armed military helicopter. Leyva claimed the helicopter hovered over the boat with its M-60 machine guns aimed at him. He also said he was told this same military helicopter was unable to provide him security during his trip because it did not have gas. Leyva claimed his campaign headquarters had been bugged and that he was being followed by a taxi working for the Colombian National Police. Leyva said his campaign has been debilitated by the GOC's failure to provide appropriate security. He blamed President Uribe for the helicopter incident and attempts at campaign espionage, saying Uribe does not want Leyva to cut a deal for the release of FARC-held hostages. Involved in past peace processes and long considered to have ties to the FARC, erratic Leyva has promised to negotiate peace with the FARC within six months if elected. ¶7. (SBU) Candidates Call for International Observers; OAS Already Planning to Send Team: Horacio Serpa, Carlos Gaviria, Antanas Mockus and Alvaro Leyva sent a signed letter to Minister of Interior and Justice Sabas Pretelt calling for the GOC to invite international observers to participate in the presidential elections to ensure transparency. MFA contacts say the GOC invited international observers to participate in both the congressional and presidential elections. A team of 17 OAS observers is expected to be present for the presidential elections. ¶8. (U) Lottery Determines Order of Seven Candidates on Ballot: The National Registry, which registers candidates for office, determined the order of the presidential ballot by lottery. Carlos Rincon, of the Movement for a Communal and Communitarian Colombia, drew first place. President Uribe will have the third spot on the ballot. Unlike the confusing nameless ballots for the congressional elections in March, presidential ballots will contain the name and photo of each candidate and his vice presidential running mate, as well as the logo of their party. WOOD