COLOMBIAN TELECOM SECTOR OVERVIEW

UNCLAS BOGOTA 002936 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USTR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ETRD ECON ECPS CO SUBJECT: COLOMBIAN TELECOM SECTOR OVERVIEW REF: A. 05 BOGOTA 8730 ¶B. 05 BOGOTA 11901 ¶1. (Summary) The telecommunications sector is a major contributor to Colombia's recent economic expansion. Telecom sector growth and investment have been substantial in recent years, driven by a sizeable increase in the mobile services market, but Colombia needs to do more to augment internet services penetration. The Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (CRT) made an important regulatory ruling to normalize rates for fixed-line to mobile calls in 2005 but continues having difficulty enforcing regulatory requirements for interconnection between Avantel and other mobile operators. The recently negotiated FTA between the U.S. and Colombia will guarantee an open and competitive telecommunications market between the two countries. -------------- - General Outlook, Investment Trends, and Income -------------- - ¶2. The telecommunications sector is a major contributor to Colombia's recent economic growth representing about 3 percent of GDP. The telecom sector grew 5.9 percent between the third quarter of 2004 and the third quarter of 2005. This growth rate made telecom one of the best performing sectors of the economy, only surpassed by construction (16.1 percent growth),financial services (12.1 percent) and commerce (8.9 percent). The sector is the second largest investor in infrastructure (22 percent of the total) after the energy sector (51 percent). Telecom companies significantly increased investment in infrastructure during the period 2000-2004 as shown in the table below. While fixed-line operators reduced their infrastructure investments after the liquidation of the publicly owned Telecom in 2002, investment levels are expected to increase during the 2005-06 period. Telecom Infrastructure Investment - 2000-2004 Type of Operator Amount (in USD billion) Growth Fixed telephony ops. USD 3.2 -1% Mobile operators USD 1.5 270% Value aggregate ops. USD 0.289 278% Cable operators USD 0.064 470% ¶3. Mobile telephony had significantly greater income growth compared to all other telecom services in 2004 and 2005. Fixed telephony also showed moderate growth driven by the need to replace fixed lines with other technological alternatives such as voice over internet protocol. In the first half of 2005, total telecom sector income was USD 3.02 billion, growing by 15.1 percent with respect to the first half of 2004. Total projected 2005 income was about USD 6.45 billion in 2005 versus USD 5.56 billion in 2004. The following are projected income levels for 2005 (in USD million): Mobile telephony 2,489 Local telephony 933 Local extended telephony 323 Rural mobile telephony 11 Interconnection 288 Basic commuted Public Telephony (Other services) 310 Value aggregate 339 Carrier 69 National long distance 316 International long distance 184 Trunking 76 Radio and television 578 Other 533 -------------- -------------- Total 6,449 Source: CRT, Ministry of Communications -------------- Mobile Telephony -------------- ¶4. The three main players in the mobile telephony market are Movistar, owned by Telefonica Moviles from Spain; Comcel owned by Mexico,s America Movil; and Ola-Colombia Movil, a joint venture between Empresas Publicas de Medellin (EPM) and Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Bogota (ETB). Market distribution among mobile operators has remained constant throughout 2005: Company Percent Share # of Lines by # of Lines by End of 2006 End of 2010 Comcel 61.8 16.1 million 20 million Movistar 28.2 7.0 million 9 million Ola 10.0 2.3 million 600,000 Source: CRT and Pyramid Research ¶5. According to a market study performed by Pyramid Research, a US-based telecommunications consulting company, Comcel will maintain market share by adding 3 million new lines in 2006, and add an additional one million lines annually until 2010. Movistar plans to add one million lines in 2006 and an additional 500,000 lines annually until 2010. OLA will add about 300,000 lines in 2006, 200,000 lines both in 2007 and 2008, 100,000 lines in 2009 and 2010. ¶6. The Ministry of Communications reported that the number of mobile telephony users rose significantly in the last year from 10.4 million in December 2004 to 21.8 million by the end of 2005. Mobile telephony penetration reached 50 percent of the population in 2005 (measured by the number of users),up from 14 percent in 2003 according to the CRT. (Comment: GOC and industry experts agree the pace of growth in the penetration rate will moderate over the next several years since the remaining population without mobile phones is less able to afford the service. End Comment) ¶7. Mobile operators face some earning difficulties. Although the mobile penetration level has increased, the average revenue per user has decreased. Wireless operators are attempting to attract low-income consumers to maintain revenues. In addition, Law 788 of December 2002 increased the value-added tax from 16 to 20 percent for wireless telephony. On the other hand, the appreciation of the Colombian peso over the last two years and migration toward GSM technology permitted an increase in productivity and cost reductions. -------------- Fixed Telephony -------------- ¶8. According to the CRT, by mid-2005 there were approximately 7.8 million fixed lines active in Colombia. Mobile penetration is having a significant impact on fixed-line market share. A study published by Colombian think-tank Fedesarrollo predicts a drop-off in the number of fixed telephone lines; today there are 16.3 fixed lines for every 100 inhabitants, and by 2009 that figure will slide to 15.6 lines. The land line infrastructure is well-developed in the main urban centers with Bogota, Medellin, and Cali accounting for about 50 percent of land lines in use. Local basic telephone service is provided by 42 authorized enterprises although more than one-third of these are associated with Colombia Telecomunicaciones (previously Telecom-Colombia,s state-run telecommunications company). Other major operators include ETB, EPM, Emcali, and Orbitel. Colombia Telecom accounts for 35 percent of the market with over 3 million lines in 900 municipalities. ETB based in Bogota has 28 percent market share while Medellin company EPM has 23 percent. Emcali, Orbitel, and a number of smaller companies control the remaining amount. ¶9. Low income households continue to rely on local fixed telephony although access is limited, especially in rural areas. While the mobile market continues to grow, the fixed line market is stagnant, registering less than a 2 percent increase in registered lines in 2005. Wireless lines overtook fixed lines in service for the first time during 2004 and the market penetration rate for fixed lines also declined slightly that year. Pyramid Research forecasts that the number of installed telephone lines will remain nearly flat over the next five years. Although the number of installed fixed lines will grow slightly over the forecast period, tariffs are expected to rise in line with inflation and peso depreciation. In May 2004, ETB announced a reduction of installation costs for new telephone lines, especially for low-income households. New regulations approved in February 2005 allow companies to offer cheaper calling plans to low-income households. ¶10. Long-distance service is provided by three long-distance licensed operators (EPM, ETB and Orbitel) and the three wireless operators. Cellular providers Movistar and Comcel have been gearing up for increased competition in long distance by offering attractive subscription conditions and introducing advanced second-generation (2.5G) technologies, which facilitate data transmission. Movistar-Telefonica aims to become the dominant cellular telephony provider and a leading fixed-line provider in the country. The two main wireless providers will try to increase margins by expanding the opportunities offered to corporate clients and by the development of the still minuscule text-messaging (short messaging service, or SMS) business. -------------- -------------- Internet Services - Imperative to Enhance Penetration -------------- -------------- ¶11. Low internet and broadband penetration remains a significant issue in Colombia. CRT figures show the number of internet subscribers in 2005 reached 900,000, or the equivalent of 4.5 million users based on a CRT estimate that one subscriber supports 5 users. Colombian users represent 4.9 percent of total internet users in Latin America. The CRT reports internet penetration will grow in 2005-09, although Colombia will likely continue to lag behind benchmark countries such as Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. Most of Colombia,s internet subscribers rely on dial-up service but approximately 170,000 pay for broadband access divided evenly between cable and DSL technologies. ¶12. The private sector is encouraging more internet use. Internet providers plan to use aggressive marketing to capture more corporate clients and internet market share. Also, leading communications companies, together with the banking sector, continue to promote the use of the internet for transactions with their clients by increasing internet banking and business-to-business transactions. However, popular distrust of online transactions and low credit-card penetration will remain major obstacles to the development of e-commerce, even as Colombia introduces new internet security measures in the medium term. -------------- 2005 Regulatory Decisions -------------- ¶13. In 2005, the CRT capped the price of fixed-to-mobile telephone calls. As reported reftel A, the CRT regulation requires mobile operators to gradually lower the per minute rate from a high of about 44 cents per minute to about 17 cents per minute by November 1, 2006, a 57 percent decrease. The regulatory change will save consumers approximately USD 9 million, according to the CRT. Similar modifications to tariff regulations for local extended telephony, long-distance, and access charges are expected for 2006. ¶15. In November 2005, CRT announced that from January 1 2006, all local calls in Colombia would be charged by the minute in compliance with Resolution 1250 of 2005. In December 2005, CRT published the regulatory agenda for 2006. The schedule includes consideration of a revision in access rates, a definition of rate policy for local extended telephony, and an integral review of regulatory policy. -------------- --- Colombia Telecomunicaciones--Looking for a Buyer -------------- --- ¶16. Colombia Telecomunicaciones, created in mid-2003 to continue the operations of its liquidated predecessor Telecom Colombia, is searching for a strategic partner who will help it expand into mobile and internet services. The company announced in early 2006 that the winning bidder (the auction is scheduled for April 7) will guarantee payment of the company's USD 3.57 billion pension debt and significantly invest in the company's communications infrastructure. Colombia Telecom President Alfonso Gomez expects the winning bidder to offer more than the USD 350 million Telmex offered in 2005 and Banif Securities investment bank reported the controlling stake may be worth between USD 450-500 million according to Morningstar. The winning bidder will continue present operations and contract for new mobile services. Potential investors include Mexico,s Telmex, Spain,s Telefonica, Venezuela,s privatized telecom monopoly CANTV (of which U.S.-based Verizon owns a minority share), Colombia's Cablecentro, and Phone 1. ¶17. An August 2005 attempt to transfer management control of Colombia Telecom to Telmex ended in failure when the Colombian Comptroller,s Office opposed the agreement, arguing the process lacked a formal valuation by a qualified independent firm. The Comptroller instructed the GOC to repeat the process and provide an opportunity for other bidders to participate. -------------- Interconnectivity-The Case of Avantel -------------- ¶18. As reported reftel B, Avantel, a U.S. affiliated telecom company, continues to assert that Colombia has not been in compliance with its telecom trade agreements. Avantel maintains that noncompliance arises from the refusal of other mobile operators to offer interconnection with Avantel,s trunking network and CRT's inability to enforce existing decrees requiring interconnection. From 2000-2004, the Ministry of Communications and CRT did not require other Colombian mobile operators to provide interconnection services to Avantel, although this was required by Colombia,s Law 555 of 2000 according to Avantel officials. Decree 4239 issued in December 2004 appeared to resolve the interconnection issue. While Avantel has received a unique prefix for the telephone numbers it assigns customers, Avantel efforts to negotiate license fees since the new decree have been rejected by the other mobile operators who refuse to recognize interconnection obligations. ¶19. Avantel argues that mobile operators are delaying cooperation in the hope that Avantel market share will continue to decrease. Since Avantel cannot connect directly with the mobile operators, Avantel pays for a fixed line service that then provides the connection to the mobile operators. Avantel pays about 43 cents per minute for the service while the average fee for other operators is 8 cents per minute. Avantel,s market share has decreased from 5 percent in 2000 to about one percent now. Moreover, Avantel maintains regulatory delays have caused it to miss out on a rapidly expanding customer base and has left it with a network that is 60 percent under-utilized. -------------- FTA Will Improve Access -------------- ¶20. The recently negotiated U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will provide guaranties for an open and competitive telecommunications market between the two countries. Colombia will provide cost-based licensing for operators, and ensure that U.S. companies will enjoy the same access as Colombian companies, including interconnection rights with Colombian suppliers and timely bid review procedures. Regarding rural telephony, the agreement initially excludes operators in approximately 800 Colombian municipalities that have less than 4,500 installed lines (about 9 percent of the national total) to facilitate investment in areas with limited telephony access. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶21. CRT forecasts that the telecom sector will outperform the rest of the economy over the next five years. CRT also predicts substantial growth potential as over 5 percent of the population remains without access to telephony services and broadband penetration is low compared with similar regional economies. The signing of an FTA with Colombia will foster growth and broaden service access. The sector's expansion, including greater access to telephony services in Colombia's rural areas, will assist GOC efforts to reestablish its presence in areas formerly controlled by illegal groups. WOOD