URIBE'S ELECTORAL LEAD DECLINES IN LATEST POLL

UNCLAS BOGOTA 002028 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON KJUS CO SUBJECT: URIBE'S ELECTORAL LEAD DECLINES IN LATEST POLL REF: Bogota 898 ¶1. (U) Summary: A poll in daily El Tiempo revealed an 11 percentage point decline in the intention to vote for President Uribe from December 2005 to February 2006. The poll shows Uribe remains over 30 points ahead of closest rival Horacio Serpa from the Liberal Party, and that he would still win reelection in the May 28 first round election with 54 percent of the vote. Negative indicators for the President included pessimism on the economy and a large spike in respondents favoring negotiation over combat with guerrilla groups. As for Congressional elections on March 12, pro-Uribe parties still appear poised to hold a majority in the Senate, while the Liberal Party would win a sizeable plurality. (The full poll can be reviewed, in Spanish, at eltiempo.terra.com.co.) End Summary. ¶2. (U) On March 5, leading national daily El Tiempo released a poll conducted during the February 8-20 period. Compared to late December 2005, intention to vote for President Uribe dropped from 65 to 54 percent. The closest rival to Uribe, Liberal Party (PLC) aspirant Horacio Serpa, meanwhile, rose from 12 to 20 percent. By comparison, a late January Semana magazine poll gave Uribe 57 percent of the intended vote (reftel),while Serpa was below ten percent. In a hypothetical second round Presidential runoff, Uribe would handily defeat any potential rival. Even were undecided voters in each potential matchup to go against Uribe, the President wins in each scenario. ¶3. (U) Noteworthy responses came to questions regarding extradition, the economy, and dealing with guerrilla groups. Support for granting extraditions to the U.S. fell three points, from 51 to 48 percent. Employment (44 percent) handily beat out dealing with illegal armed groups (15 percent) as the number one citizen concern. Only eight percent termed the economy good, while 58 and 34 percent, respectively, felt it was regular or bad. Support for fighting guerrilla groups dropped from 37 to 31 percent, while support for negotiating with guerrilla groups increased from 57 to 63 percent. ¶4. (U) The poll showed that the leading pro-Uribe parties would win a majority in March 12 Senate voting. However, several pro-Uribe parties were on weak ground in terms of attaining the minimum vote threshold (umbral) required to actually be granted seats in the Senate. The five top Senate vote getters would be: --Liberal (PLC): 33.2 percent --National Unity (U): 13.2 --Radical Change (CR): 12.8 --Conservative (PCC): 10.2 --Democratic Pole (PDA): 6.7 Numerous parties were just above or below the two percent mark. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: The race remains Uribe's to lose, which is highly unlikely, given the huge distance between the President and any other potential rival. While chances of a majority anti-Uribe Senate are slim, new electoral rules on vote threshold make predicting exact Senate numbers difficult. The Liberals, however, have clearly sought to position themselves to hold a plurality in the next Congress. WOOD