GOC-ELN EXPLORATORY TALKS MAKE STEADY PROGRESS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001965 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR CO SUBJECT: GOC-ELN EXPLORATORY TALKS MAKE STEADY PROGRESS, RESUME IN APRIL; ELN CALLS ON COLOMBIANS TO VOTE IN MARCH 12 ELECTIONS REF: BOGOTA 1145 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood Reason: 1.4 (b,d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The latest round of exploratory talks between the GOC and ELN ended February 28 in Havana. The GOC-ELN joint statement issued February 27 characterized the talks as "satisfactory" and said they would resume in early April, again in Havana. Other participants and observers told us the talks made steady progress. Civil society guarantor Moritz Akerman was optimistic, saying the talks moved forward on defining modalities for the next session, including a "working group" to handle the tough issues. He said the guarantor group would expand shortly. A close observer from the Catholic Church, who also attended the talks, was more skeptical, saying neither party seemed to have a clear strategy beyond seeking short term political advantage. The GOC conceded "political" status to ELN negotiators, which allows them to travel within Colombia and abroad and insulates them from arrest while the talks continue. The ELN negotiators plan to use this status to travel to Europe in the near future. The GOC's reluctance to concede the political status almost led to the talks breaking down. Akerman told us that ELN military commander Antonio Garcia asked him to "tell the Americans to pay close attention" to the talks. The guarantor also said Garcia regarded a guarantor proposal to the ELN on kidnappings (reftel) as positive but premature. On March 2, the ELN called on Colombians to vote in the March 12 congressional elections and said it would suspend military action for a few hours before and after voting time. End summary. -------------- -------------- STATEMENT SAYS TALKS CONCLUDE IN SATISFACTORY MANNER -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) A GOC-ELN statement dated February 27 said the most recent round of exploratory talks in Havana concluded in a "satisfactory" manner. The statement said the parties met their objectives, which were to define further their proposals on the peace process in general and the agenda for subsequent sessions. The statement thanked the Governments of Cuba and Venezuela for their assistance, and the Governments of accompanying countries" Spain, Norway, and Switzerland for their participation. The exploratory phase of talks will resume in early April, again in Havana. The statement did not mention the fact that the GOC agreed to concede "political status" to two ELN negotiators (apparently militarycommander Antonio Garcia and alias "Ramiro Vargas.") This status would allow the ELN negotiators to travel without fear of arrest, according to press reports. Leading daily El Tiempo reported March 1 that the ELN wanted to use the status to visit Europe. -------------- STEADT PROGRESS, BUT NO BREAKTHROUGH -------------- ¶3. (C) The talks made steady progress but did not result in a breakthrough, according to participants and observers. Civil society guarantor Moritz Akerman told D/Polcouns that the agreement was "very good," because it talks about a "peace process" for the first time. Akerman said the parties agreed to establish a working group-type mechanism ("mesa alternativa") for the next round of talks, which would enable especially difficult issues to be thrashed out prior to reaching the main negotiators. According to Akerman, the guarantors would play a role in the "mesa alternativa." He also said the GOC and ELN agreed to a formal role in the talks for the "accompanying countries" (who are to be called "international observers"). ¶4. (C) Akerman said the guarantors group still intends to expand (reftel). Three new guarantors will soon be announced: former foreign minister Maria Emma Mejia, Father Horacio Orango, and El Colombiano editor Ana Mercedes Gomez (who still needs permission from her publisher employer). He noted that the guarantors are exploring moving the talks to Panama and are in touch with Panamanian interlocutors. ¶5. (C) Akerman said he was concerned the talks were headed for trouble late on February 22, when Garcia called him on the cell phone to say the GOC was refusing to concede the ELN negotiators "political" status that would enable them to travel. According to Akerman, Garcia said, "tell the Americans that they should pay close attention to this matter." Akerman understood from this comment that Garcia was suggesting the U.S. help persuade the GOC to grant political status to the negotiators. (Akerman relayed this information to us on February 24, by which time the GOC and ELN had reached agreement.) Akerman also said Garcia told him the guarantor proposal to the ELN on kidnappings was positive but premature (reftel). ¶6. (C) Lead Catholic Church negotiator Father Dario Echeverri, who was also in Havana for the talks, told Polcouns he believes neither the ELN nor the GOC have a clear strategy for the talks beyond seeking short-term political advantages. He said the ELN wanted to move the talks to Europe beginning March 28, and argued the GOC is correct to insist on a "very big concession" from the ELN before it agrees to such a move. According to Echeverri, the ELN wants the GOC to release captured Valle del Cauca commander, alias "El Viejo," to join ELN spokesman Francisco Galan at the House of Peace in Antioquia for further civil society consultations. In Echeverri's view, the House of Peace initiative educates the ELN on the negative impression most Colombians have of the guerrilla organization. Echeverri said he was very impressed by a new ELN negotiator in Havana, alias "Moises," from Norte de Santander. -------------- -------------- ELN CALLS ON COLOMBIANS TO VOTE IN MARCH 12 ELECTIONS -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) On March 2, the ELN,s Garcia called on the Colombian population to vote in the March 12 Congressional elections and promised to suspend any military action that could interfere with voting for a few hours before and after the election. He made these statements in Cuba during a teleconference with journalists in Medellin. Some Colombian analysts see the ELN,s new attitude toward elections as an indicator of the group,s willingness to move forward with the peace process and as a sign of the ELN distancing itself from the FARC. Others remain skeptical. Garcia denied the ELN had any favored candidates or parties, but encouraged the population to vote for candidates &committed to peace and who are willing to support necessary changes8 in the country. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The fact that exploratory "talks about talks" will continue is a good sign, but Embassy is inclined to accept Echeverri's account as more realistic. Foreign Minister Barco told Polcouns that the GOC remains skeptical of ELN intentions and does not want to get embroiled in a long, complicated process with too many moving parts -- something the ELN has been partial to during past attempts at peace. Both Echeverri and members of Peace Commissioner Restrepo's team report that ELN commander Garcia was very tough and intransigent at the negotiating table. Garcia's interest in ensuring the U.S. was informed of what he viewed as GOC stubbornness is an interesting sidebar but Embassy believes we should take our cue from the GOC with respect to any future involvement in the process. WOOD =======================CABLE ENDS============================