Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06BOGOTA1858
2006-03-01 20:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bogota
Cable title:
POLO'S SAMUEL MORENO ON ELECTORAL POLITICS,
how-toVZCZCXYZ0018 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHBO #1858/01 0602050 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 012050Z MAR 06 FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2680 INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 7243 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR 7739 RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 3302 RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 8813 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 3925
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001858
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD
SUBJECT: POLO'S SAMUEL MORENO ON ELECTORAL POLITICS,
URIBE'S NEXT TERM, AND FREE-TRADE
REF: BOGOTA 1447
Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001858
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD
SUBJECT: POLO'S SAMUEL MORENO ON ELECTORAL POLITICS,
URIBE'S NEXT TERM, AND FREE-TRADE
REF: BOGOTA 1447
Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (SBU) Summary. Polo DemocraticoAlternativo (Polo)
President Samuel Moreno predicted his party would get up to
17 Senate seats in the March 12 congressional elections. He
said the Polo would use anti-free trade rhetoric to win
votes, and argued that Uribe would have a reduced majority in
Congress and a harder time getting legislation passed.
Moreno said he plans to run for Mayor of Bogota in 2007. End
summary.
--------------
The March 12 Election
--------------
2. (C) According to Moreno, the Polo will get 12-17 Senate
seats on March 12. He predicted it would get about four of
the 18 House seats in Bogota. (He did not comment more
broadly on how the Polo expects to fare in obtaining House
seats nationwide.) Moreno estimated 8-9 of the registered
parties would not reach the 2 percent "umbral" (the new legal
threshold to retain their legal status is about 240,000 votes
nationally). He said the Polo would benefit from a provision
in the new electoral rules, which redistributes votes
originally cast for such parties. (Even experienced analysts
are not sure exactly how "umbral" and redistributed votes
will affect the results.) (Reftel)
--------------
Impact of Free Trade on Elections
--------------
3. (C) Moreno said the free trade agreement (FTA) that
closed on February 27 will help Polo gain congressional
representation. He argued that the 57 percent of people
holding a negative opinion of the FTA will associate the FTA
with the "U" Party, likely benefiting the Polo and Liberal
parties. Moreno predicted the Polo's strong opposition to
the FTA could bring as many as 5 additional seats in the
House, and 1 seat in the Senate. He suggested the Polo would
benefit most in the departments of Valle de Cauca, Huila, and
Tolima, as the economies of these regions are driven by the
agricultural sector. (Note: The Polo will try to make the
FTA a campaign issue. Moreno, who falls on the moderate side
of his party, said the Polo line is that the GOC should have
negotiated a continuation of the Andean Trade Preferences and
Drug Enforcement Act (ATPDEA). When reminded that the U.S.
Congress would not extend ATPDEA again, he acknowledged the
position would be a tough call. End Note.)
--------------
On Uribe's Next Term
--------------
4. (SBU) Moreno said Uribe will have more problems getting
legislation passed with the new Congress then he did with the
current body. He predicted the Congress will split about
55-60 percent in favor of Uribe, and 40-45 percent against
him. In the current Congress, Uribe has about 70 percent
support. He argued that voters would prefer a "check and
balance" in the system, between Uribe and left-leaning
Congressional representation.
5. (C) In Moreno's view, Uribe will likely be able to pass
some of his less-contentious legislation by simple majority
vote, especially during the traditional "honeymoon" period.
He predicted, however, that this period would be considerably
shorterthen the traditional 2 years. (Septel) Moreno said
Uribe would need to "sweeten the deals" for legislators to
convince them to vote in favor of his projects.
6. (C) Moreno compared Uribe to Hugo Chavez, saying his ego
and consolidation of power may even hurt him within the "U"
Party. Both Uribe and Chavez have not effectively shared
power, said Moreno, and Uribe is increasingly alienating some
within his own movement. He also suggested Uribe might take
a shot at a third term.
--------------
The Political Landscape in 2010
--------------
7. (SBU) Moreno said the "U" Party will almost certainly
dissolve before the 2010 Presidential election, sending
currentUribistas to other parties. He also believes current
Bogota Mayor LuchoGarzon (Polo) will be a serious contender
for President in 2010, and also mentioned Enrique Penalosa,
Rodrigo Rivera, Rafael Pardo, and German Vargas Lleras as
other possible candidates. Moreno said he plans to run for
Mayor of Bogota in 2007.
--------------
Comment
--------------
8. (C) The left remains divided in the run-up to
Congressional and Presidential elections. Embassy views
Moreno's predictions across the board as overly optimistic.
WOOD
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD
SUBJECT: POLO'S SAMUEL MORENO ON ELECTORAL POLITICS,
URIBE'S NEXT TERM, AND FREE-TRADE
REF: BOGOTA 1447
Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (SBU) Summary. Polo DemocraticoAlternativo (Polo)
President Samuel Moreno predicted his party would get up to
17 Senate seats in the March 12 congressional elections. He
said the Polo would use anti-free trade rhetoric to win
votes, and argued that Uribe would have a reduced majority in
Congress and a harder time getting legislation passed.
Moreno said he plans to run for Mayor of Bogota in 2007. End
summary.
--------------
The March 12 Election
--------------
2. (C) According to Moreno, the Polo will get 12-17 Senate
seats on March 12. He predicted it would get about four of
the 18 House seats in Bogota. (He did not comment more
broadly on how the Polo expects to fare in obtaining House
seats nationwide.) Moreno estimated 8-9 of the registered
parties would not reach the 2 percent "umbral" (the new legal
threshold to retain their legal status is about 240,000 votes
nationally). He said the Polo would benefit from a provision
in the new electoral rules, which redistributes votes
originally cast for such parties. (Even experienced analysts
are not sure exactly how "umbral" and redistributed votes
will affect the results.) (Reftel)
--------------
Impact of Free Trade on Elections
--------------
3. (C) Moreno said the free trade agreement (FTA) that
closed on February 27 will help Polo gain congressional
representation. He argued that the 57 percent of people
holding a negative opinion of the FTA will associate the FTA
with the "U" Party, likely benefiting the Polo and Liberal
parties. Moreno predicted the Polo's strong opposition to
the FTA could bring as many as 5 additional seats in the
House, and 1 seat in the Senate. He suggested the Polo would
benefit most in the departments of Valle de Cauca, Huila, and
Tolima, as the economies of these regions are driven by the
agricultural sector. (Note: The Polo will try to make the
FTA a campaign issue. Moreno, who falls on the moderate side
of his party, said the Polo line is that the GOC should have
negotiated a continuation of the Andean Trade Preferences and
Drug Enforcement Act (ATPDEA). When reminded that the U.S.
Congress would not extend ATPDEA again, he acknowledged the
position would be a tough call. End Note.)
--------------
On Uribe's Next Term
--------------
4. (SBU) Moreno said Uribe will have more problems getting
legislation passed with the new Congress then he did with the
current body. He predicted the Congress will split about
55-60 percent in favor of Uribe, and 40-45 percent against
him. In the current Congress, Uribe has about 70 percent
support. He argued that voters would prefer a "check and
balance" in the system, between Uribe and left-leaning
Congressional representation.
5. (C) In Moreno's view, Uribe will likely be able to pass
some of his less-contentious legislation by simple majority
vote, especially during the traditional "honeymoon" period.
He predicted, however, that this period would be considerably
shorterthen the traditional 2 years. (Septel) Moreno said
Uribe would need to "sweeten the deals" for legislators to
convince them to vote in favor of his projects.
6. (C) Moreno compared Uribe to Hugo Chavez, saying his ego
and consolidation of power may even hurt him within the "U"
Party. Both Uribe and Chavez have not effectively shared
power, said Moreno, and Uribe is increasingly alienating some
within his own movement. He also suggested Uribe might take
a shot at a third term.
--------------
The Political Landscape in 2010
--------------
7. (SBU) Moreno said the "U" Party will almost certainly
dissolve before the 2010 Presidential election, sending
currentUribistas to other parties. He also believes current
Bogota Mayor LuchoGarzon (Polo) will be a serious contender
for President in 2010, and also mentioned Enrique Penalosa,
Rodrigo Rivera, Rafael Pardo, and German Vargas Lleras as
other possible candidates. Moreno said he plans to run for
Mayor of Bogota in 2007.
--------------
Comment
--------------
8. (C) The left remains divided in the run-up to
Congressional and Presidential elections. Embassy views
Moreno's predictions across the board as overly optimistic.
WOOD
=======================CABLE ENDS============================