WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001820

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP


Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM B. WOOD;
REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (U) Election updates for the week of February 20-28.


2. (C) Uribe to Campaign for Congressional Majority: In an
effort to assuage concerns that he has not sufficiently
promoted congressional supporters, President Uribe officially
launched his campaign on February 27. This move will allow
the President to publicly support the six pro-Uribe parties:
the Conservative Party, Cambio Radical, Alas Equipo Colombia,
Colombia Democratica, the U Party, and La Colombia que
Sonamos. His first campaign event will be March 1 with the
Conservative Party. Uribe's support for these parties is an
effort to secure a Congressional majority for his second
term. U Party leader Juan Manuel Santos acknowledged to
polcouns on February 20 that strong support for Uribe was not
trickling down to pro-Uribe congressional candidates so far.
In a country with no history of coattails, it is not clear
whether Uribe's efforts will have the desired effect,
particularly with less than two weeks until the March 12
elections (septel).


3. (C) Conservatives Expel La Gata's Son: Bowing to
pressure from Casa Narino, Conservative Party President
Carlos Holguin expelled Hector Julio Alfonso Lopez, the son
of jailed lottery millionaire Enilce Lopez ("La Gata"),
currently under investigation for money laundering. This is
a departure for the Conservative Party, which had earlier
said it would not expel candidates unless there were judicial
proceedings against them. Holguin told the press it was a
political decision and did not mean there was evidence
against Alfonso Lopez or the Conservative Party was judging
him. Holguin did say, however, that he thought Alfonso
Lopez's inclusion on the Conservative list for the House from
Bolivar Department was "inappropriate" from the beginning and
fired local Boliviar Conservative Party president Dario Jose
Bustillo Gomez. Alfonso Lopez is said to be considering
offers to join other parties.


4. (C) Conservative Party Slipping?: Between the two
historically dominant Colombian political parties -- the
Conservatives and the Liberals -- the probable loser in this
year's elections would appear to be the Conservative party,
which is aligned with President Uribe. Even Uribe supporters
predict that the Conservatives will lag far behind the
Liberals in the upcoming March 12 elections. Most
politicians predict the Liberals will garner 30-35 seats in
the Senate and 55-60 in the House. Estimates for the
Conservatives range from 10-19 wins in the Senate, with a
more respectable showing of as many as 30-40 seats in the
House. In the current Congress, Conservatives have 24 Senate
seats and 46 House seats. Our interlocutors attribute the
expected Conservative decline to the lack of personalities
and leadership in the party. Despite this potential loss,
the Conservative Party still figures to feature prominently
in any Uribe coalition and will be important to Uribe in his
efforts to pass legislation (septel).


5. (U) The View from the Extreme Left: Jorge Enrique
Robledo, a Senator and member of Polo Democratico Alternativo
(Polo) who leans to the far left, recently said that Polo's
goals are to "defend work and workers, their salaries, the
quality of life of all people, and protection for
agriculture, industry and business in Colombia." Robledo is
opposed to the Colombian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and
prominently displays this on his campaign materials. Robledo
noted that "statutes and agreements" are what currently unite
Polo and that it will take time to blend the personalities
that came together to form the party. He is "optimistic,"
however, about the left's chances in the congressional
elections. He said he hopes Carlos Gaviria wins the Polo
primary and defeats Uribe in the presidential race.


6. (C) Elections and Extradition: Leading daily El Tiempo
asked 100 of the "most likely" winners in the coming
elections if they would support constitutional changes to end
extradition. Only 29 of the 100 said they would be in favor
of anti-extradition changes. Two thirds said flat out they
would not, while about a third expressed varying degrees of
support for legislative changes. This parallels with
numerous comments Members of Congress have made to us over
time.


7. (SBU) Senate Candidate Dies in Helicopter Crash: Pedro
Juan Moreno, a leading Conservative Senate candidate and
former advisor to President Uribe, died on February 24 when
the helicopter carrying him to an election event in Apartado
crashed in the mountainous region of Dabeiba, 220 miles
northwest of Bogota. Mechanical failure is the probable
cause of the crash. In the late 1990s, Moreno was chief aid
to Uribe when he was the governor of Antioquia Department.
In recent years, Moreno had distanced himself from the
President and had accused some Uribe administration officials
of corruption in his self-funded publication, "The Other
Truth."


8. (C) Shifts in Liberal Party Support: A poll released on
February 28 showed the front-runner, Horacio Serpa, slipping
from 32 percent to 18 percent in his quest for the Liberal
party nomination. Former Defense Minister and current
Senator Raphael Pardo rose from 8 to 14 percent. More than
46 percent are undecided, making it anyone's race.

WOOD