WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001583 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Milton K. Drucker; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Election Updates for February 13-17. ¶2. (C) Prominent Political Consultants, Part I - The Importance of a Congressional Majority: Three prominent political consultants told us on February 15 that a Congressional majority for Uribe's second term may be less vital than many believe. Colombia traditionally affords new presidents a two-year honeymoon in which much can be achieved with good arguments (and pork, when necessary). It is only afterwards that electoral calculations come into play, making progress on a president's agenda more difficult. A re-elected President may not enjoy quite such a honeymoon, but it is likely that Uribe will continue to hold many cards no matter who is elected to Congress (septel). ¶3. (C) Prominent Political Consultants, Part II - the Future of the Opposition: The same political consultants said that re-election is hindering the trajectory of Colombia's younger politicians. The traditional figures, including former presidents, have a new lease on their political lives as a result of the election ruling. For example, former President Cesar Gaviria is likely to be the Liberal nominee in 2010. Gaviria doesn't deny this, but says it is too soon to say what he will do. Gaviria told us he offered the top spot on their Senate list to former Foreign Minister Maria Emma Mejia more than a year ago, but she turned it down. After Mejia's recent falling out with the Polo DemocraticoAlternativo (Polo),Gaviria believes she regrets her decision not to acceptGaviria's offer. Re-election may make for some interesting opposition bedfellows, however. Senator German Vargas Lleras, an Uribe supporter who is generally on the outs with the President, may rejoin the Liberal Party after the elections, the consultants predicted. (Embassy comment: we view this as plausible.) ¶4. (C) Lottery Millionaire Who Gave Funds to Uribe Arrested: President Uribe publicly admitted his 2002 campaign accepted 100 million pesos (about USD 40,000) from a commercial entity controlled by Enilce Lopez, aka "La Gata," who was arrested by the Fiscalia the week of February 13 on suspicion of money laundering activity. Multi-millionaire Lopez is a controversial figure on the Atlantic coast, where she controls, inter alia, numerous lottery concessions. While press reports have noted that La Gata was not under formal criminal investigation in 2002, she has been publicly linked to illegal organizations (including the late drug trafficker Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha, aka "El Mexicano") since prior to ¶2002. Lopez's son, Hector Lopez, continues to be a House candidate on the Conservative Party ticket in Bolivar Department. Party President Carlos Holguin has twice asked local officials to consider removing him from the Conservative list. Party officials in Bolivar have not made a final decision. (The political advisor to Prosecutor General Iguaran tells us the case against La Gata is strong and that she will not likely get out on bail.) ¶5. (U) Televised Presidential Debates in the Works: The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that there will be three televised, 60-minute presidential debates starting some time after April 6. Participation will be open to all candidates. The debates will be broadcast on all national TV and radio stations. ¶6. (C) Name Recognition: The parties led by AntanasMockus and Enrique Penalosa (both former mayors of Bogota) and Senator Carlos Moreno de Caro -- all of whom have both strong name and face recognition among voters -- have each opted for a logo including some form of each leader's photo. Early in the week, the National Electoral Council rejected the use of these proposed personalized logos on the Congressional ballot. In a course change, however, the CNE then decided to permit only Mockus' party to use his photo, arguing that he was not running for Congress and therefore would not get an unfair advantage by having his face on a congressional ballot paper. Penalosa and Moreno are appealing the CNE rulings in their cases; decisions are expected before February 25. CNE rulings to date have lacked consistency and it is not clear how it will rule on these appeals. ¶7. (U) Presidential Candidates and the FTA: President Uribe, in the U.S. this week to finalize Free Trade Agreement negotiations between Colombia and the United States, may be the only presidential candidate who supports the FTA. Liberal candidates Horacio Serpa and Rafael Pardo have publicly come out against the FTA in recent weeks, as have Polo Democratico Alternativo hopefuls Antonio Navarro and Carlos Gaviria (Gaviria called it "harmful"). Antanas Mockus, running on his eponymous ticket, is not against the FTA, but is concerned that Colombia is not broadening its trade relationships with other countries and Mercosur. DRUCKER =======================CABLE ENDS============================