THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES: SUBSTANCE TAKING A BACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001447

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER SNAR CO
SUBJECT: THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES: SUBSTANCE TAKING A BACK
SEAT

REF: A. BOGOTA 1328

B. BOGOTA 1327

Classified By: Charge Milton K. Drucker, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.


1. (C) Summary: Campaigning for the March 12 Congressional
elections is thus far light on substantive issues and
platforms. New electoral rules allow voters to cast ballots
for individuals rather than parties, which could further
erode the parties' ability to maintain legislative discipline
in Congress. In essence, several center-right pro-Uribe
parties and candidates are pitted against the center-left
Liberals and Polo. Party heads almost single-handedly
control placement on (or removal from) each party's list.
Perceived electoral prowess is a major factor in selecting
prospective candidates. Below we offer a brief overview of
the leading parties, their platforms, and the most prominent
figures in each movement. Ref B details the March 12 stakes
and electoral dynamics. End Summary.

PRO-URIBE PARTIES
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2. (C) The Conservative Party (Partido Conservador
Colombiano, PCC),headed by Senator Carlos Holguin Sardi, is
one of Colombia's two traditional parties. It opted not to
run its own Presidential candidate, but instead backs Uribe
for reelection. During the Uribe Administration, the party
has largely voted in favor of the President's legislative
initiatives, albeit with several notable exceptions, largely
in the fiscal realm. The posts of Senate President and House
Speaker (which alternate yearly) have been held by PCC
members on several occasions during the Uribe Administration.
Party faithful hold several key posts in the GOC. Interior
and Justice Minister Sabas Pretelt hails from the PCC, as
does Prosecutor General (Fiscal General) Mario Iguaran.
(Comment: While Prosecutor General is not technically a GOC
post, President Uribe sent to the Supreme Court three names
for consideration for the post. All were rank and file PCC
members. End Comment.) The PCC does not consider itself an
"Uribista" party; PCC leaders say support for Uribe comes
with the understanding that he will move forward with key PCC
agenda items during his second administration. These include
support for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United
States, lowering tax rates while increasing the tax base,
"formalization" of the informal economy, and expanded
participation in key social programs, like subsidies for
rural and urban families with children in school. Consistent
with its Christian Democratic roots, the PCC is opposed to
the decriminalization of abortion in Colombia.


3. (C) The U Party (Partido de la U),headed by former
Finance Minister Juan Manuel Santos, fully supports President
Uribe and counts in its ranks numerous political
heavyweights, many of whom are, like Uribe, former members of
the Liberal Party. Notable among these are Senators Luis
Guillermo Velez, Carlos Garcia Orjuela, and Oscar Ivan
Zuluaga, and Representatives Gina Parody and Armando
Benedetti. Parody is number one on the party's Senate
candidate list. Santos removed five party members from his
Senate list in January for alleged ties to the AUC. Of late,
Santos and Radical Change head German Vargas Lleras (see para
4) have captured attention for their obvious personal
rivalry, if not mutual disdain. As an Uribista party, the U
Party supports President Uribe's policies and increased
access to health care, education, and public services. The U
Party has taken a "wait and see approach" to the FTA.


4. (C) Radical Change (Cambio Radical),headed by Senator
German Vargas Lleras, supports President Uribe publicly in
spite of obvious and recurring tension between Uribe and
Vargas Lleras (including Vargas Lleras accusations regarding
GOC protection for him in the aftermath of a failed
assassination attempt). Current Senate President Claudia
Blum was slated to be one of the party's top Senate
candidates (at number two, after Vargas Lleras at number
one),but removed herself in order to be positioned for a
cabinet position in a second Uribe Administration or to run
for Mayor of Cali. Other major party figures include sitting
Senators Miguel Pinedo and Javier Caceres. The latter is
well-known for conducting headline-grabbing Senate hearings,
particularly focusing on graft and corruption. Last month,
Vargas Lleras removed two members of the party for alleged
AUC ties. Radical Change candidates support President
Uribe's policies, including the FTA and extradition.


5. (C) Democratic Colombia (Colombia Democratica) is headed
by Senator Mario Uribe Escobar, the President's cousin.
(Comment: The morning after the U Party had removed members
for alleged ties to the AUC, Mario Uribe was on the radio
publicly welcoming them into his party. Mario Uribe desisted
only after President Uribe asked that parties supporting him
for President not accept any of the expelled individuals.
End Comment.) Senator Uribe announced the week of January 30
that Representatives Rocio Arias and Eleonora Pineda, vocal
sympathizers of the AUC, would no longer be welcome in the
party's ranks. The Democratic Colombia party supports the
re-election of President Uribe and the continuation of his
Democratic Security agenda.


6. (C) Wings-Team Colombia (Alas-Equipo Colombia, A-EC) is
headed by Senator Luis Alfredo Ramos, a former Commerce
Minister and Ambassador to the OAS. Most leading A-EC
figures are former members of the PCC. Other notable party
figures include Senator Alvaro Araujo, brother of former GOC
Culture Minister Maria Consuelo Araujo, who heads the party's
current Senate candidate list. Major A-EC issues include
governmental decentralization, tax breaks for big business,
help for the urban poor, and mandatory primary and secondary
education.

ANTI-URIBE PARTIES
--------------


7. (C) Former President and OAS Secretary General Cesar
Gaviria runs the Officialist Liberal Party (Partido Liberal
Colombiano, PLC),one of Colombia's two traditional parties.
Former cabinet minister Cecilia Lopez heads up the party's
Senate list. The party will hold a national primary on March
12 to select its Presidential nominee. The contenders are
Horacio Serpa (the PLC candidate in 1998 and 2002) and
Senators Rafael Pardo, Rodrigo Rivera, and Andres Gonzalez.
Serpa is the clear frontrunner for the nomination. Gaviria
removed Senator Vicente Blel Saad from the PLC Senate list in
January over publicly-reported ties to drug trafficking
organizations. The PLC platform focuses on social issues,
including access to education and credit, pension reform, and
job creation. Liberals are generally opposed to the FTA.


8. (C) Senator Samuel Moreno Rojas heads the Alternative
Democratic Pole (Polo Democratico Alternativo, PDA),the only
major party on the far left of the political spectrum. As
with the PLC, the PDA will hold a Presidential primary on
March 12. The contest pits Senators Antonio Navarro Wolff (a
former member of the demobilized M-19 guerrilla movement) and
Carlos Gaviria Diaz against each other for the nomination.
Heading the PDA's Senate list is Representative Gustavo
Petro, one of Colombia's most vocal leftist figures. The PDA
is currently discussing its platform and intends to make an
announcement before the end of February. Party leaders say
that key objectives will be consistent with general leftists
goals: enhancing social programs, increasing taxes for
wealthier Colombians, and decreasing military spending. The
PDA is also considering more radical issues like agrarian
reform and wealth and natural resources distribution, but it
is not clear that these will make the formal platform.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Thus far, the campaign has not witnessed much public
discussion of real issues, and has been more focused on
jockeying for position on party lists. This may be in part
because the differences between the major parties, excepting
the PDA, are minor. The major vote getters from the 2002
Congressional elections in general attained prime spots on
major party lists. Party heads have tweaked their lists in
recent weeks/days in response to negative information on one
or more candidates.
DRUCKER