WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001393

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP

REF: A. BOGOTA 1150 AND 849 (NOTAL)


B. BOGOTA 1327

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MILTON DRUCKER;
REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (U) Election updates for February 6-10.


2. (SBU) Uribe Campaigns for Congressional Candidates:
President Uribe announced he will campaign for Congressional
candidates. In an interview with Ahora magazine, Uribe said
he "can't be absent from the elections" and needs to
"participate" in Congressional elections to ensure an
Uribista majority in Congress. To some extent, this is a
reconsideration by the Uribe re-election team of an earlier
decision to keep the President above the fray.


3. (U) House and Senate Candidate Registration End:
Registration for the March Congressional elections closed on
February 7. Twenty-two parties will compete for 102 seats in
the Senate and over 400 parties for 166 seats in the House
(Ref B). Candidates and parties have until February 25 to
modify their lists. While most party lists are finalized,
there remains some jostling for positions and top spots.


4. (U) The Continuing Saga of Rocio Arias: According to
press reports, Rocio Arias has joined Senator Carlos Moreno
de Cano's eponymous political party after being expelled from
Senator Mario Uribe's Colombia Democratica party last week
for paramilitary ties. At Arias' request, Moreno changed his
list to allow preferential voting, which means voters can
cast ballots for Arias personally rather than just for
Moreno's party; this change will likely ensure Arias'
election. Senator Uribe has promised to return the 20
million pesos (approximately USD 9,000) Arias gave Colombia
Democratica to cover election costs.


5. (C) Conservative Leader Holguin to Run for President in
2010: While registering the Conservative Party Senate list,
Party President Carlos Holguin announced his intention to run
for President in 2010. Holguin, a Senator whom many believe
is past his political prime, said he would not accept a
position in the next Uribe Administration, but would use his
position as President of the Conservative Party to
communicate to the voters his vision for the future of
Colombia. Holguin, who generally represents the "old guard,"
could undermine Conservative efforts to appeal to younger
voters, both now and in 2010, if he insists on staying at
center stage and fails to groom the next generation of
leaders.


6. (U) Claudia Blum Will Not Run for Senate: Senate
President Claudia Blum, who held the second spot on Cambio
Radical's Senate list, announced that she will not run for
Senate. Blum will either take a position in Uribe's next
cabinet and/or run for Mayor of Cali in 2007. Blum is a top
vote getter from Valle Del Cauca Department, where Cali is
located.


7. (U) Seven Retired Generals Running for Congress: Seven
relatively recently retired generals are running for
Congress, three for the Senate and three for the House.
While they are running on different party lists, most are
part of Uribista parties and share common goals: supporting
Uribe's Democratic Security agenda and increasing military
pensions and salaries. In total, 12 former members of the
armed forces are seeking office this year. This is the
largest number of former military to run for Congress in
Colombian history.
DRUCKER