PRIMER FOR MARCH 12 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS BOGOTA 001327 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR CO SUBJECT: PRIMER FOR MARCH 12 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS ¶1. Summary: This cable provides a brief overview of upcoming Congressional elections on March 12, in which 166 House and 102 Senate seats will be decided. Newly elected members will take office for four-year terms starting July ¶20. Thousands of individuals are running overall, spread over the roughly 60 political parties currently in existence. After this election, only 8-12 parties should remain, due to new vote threshold requirements. Revised electoral rules and ballot dynamics have radically changed the political calculus of both aspirants and political party leaders. End Summary. THE BASICS -------------- ¶2. Voters across Colombia and overseas will elect 166 House and 102 Senate members on March 12. House voting is held at the departmental (U.S. state equivalent) level while Senate races are national in nature. For the House, each department has been assigned a number of seats, based on population (for example, Bogota has 18 seats, Antioquia Department 17, and so forth). In each department, the individual voter may select one candidate from within a party's pre-determined candidate list. In addition, Colombians residing abroad may vote for one House candidate (special list) to hold a single special seat representing overseas Colombians. Each voter (whether in Colombia or abroad) may vote for one senator, again from within a series of party-affiliated lists. NEW LEGAL-BASED DYNAMICS -------------- ¶3. Three major new mechanisms come into play for the first time in these elections, based on a new law passed in 2003. First, a minimum vote threshold (umbral) now exists in order for a party to: A) maintain its official party status, and B) be entitled to assignment of seats in either house of Congress. In order for the party to maintain its official status, it must attain two percent of the nationwide vote in either the Senate or House elections. For entitlement to Senate seats, the party must make the two percent mark. For entitlement to House seats in a particular department, the party must make the two percent mark in that department. Parties failing to reach either marker are shut out of the post-election day assignment of seats. ¶4. Second, individuals will be able to select an individual candidate from within a party's list for Senate or House, regardless of that individual's numerical order on the list (preferential vote or voto preferente). Previously, parties crafted lists in which votes were for the party alone and the subsequent allocation of seats to said party went to the highest-ordered individuals on the list. (Parties may opt for the previous, non-preferential scheme, but thus far only one leading party has done so.) ¶5. Third, subsequent to voting day, the National Registrar will implement use of the D'Hondt method, a statistical highest average system named after mathematician Victor D'Hondt, and used widely in European elections. The method allocates seats in proportion to the number of votes a list received (provided, of course, the party made the umbral level). After the vote count, successive quotients are calculated for each list. The quotient is calculated using the formula V/(s+1),with V being the total number of votes that list received, and s the number of seats that party has been allocated so far (initially zero for all parties). The list with the highest quotient gets the next seat allocated, and its quotient is recalculated given its new seat total. The process is repeated until all seats have been allocated. REGISTRAR DECISION ON BALLOT FORMAT -------------- ¶6. The Registrar recently ruled that in order to keep the ballot (relatively) simple, the names of individual candidates will not appear under each party banner. The parties thus have assigned (or are about to assign) numbers to each individual candidate. Individuals have begun to pitch their candidacies publicly in such a fashion, for example, running as "Liberal Party - Senate - Vote 01." COMMENT -------------- ¶7. The Congressional ballot will be exceedingly long and complex, and a large number of null votes will almost certainly take place. In recent days, individuals expelled from several leading parties have regrouped under smaller political party banners in hopes of attaining sufficient votes as a group to guarantee a handful of seats in the Senate. Experts project a nationwide Senate vote of roughly 12 million. Under such a scenario, any individual party would need to attain roughly 240,000 votes for Senate in order to be entitled to assignment of seats in that body. Septel will provide an overview of the major parties participating in the March 12 elections. DRUCKER