WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001150

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP

REF: A. BOGOTA 849 (NOTAL)


B. BOGOTA 898


1. (U) Election updates for the week of January 30 -
February 5.


2. (C) More Expulsions For Paramilitary Ties: Colombia
Democratica Party leader and Senator Mario Uribe (President
Uribe's cousin) announced the expulsion from his party of
Rocio Arias and Eleonora Pineda on February 2. Colombia
Democratica accepted both women late last year after they
were denied membership in both the "U" Party and Cambio
Radical. Both Representatives, elected from areas under AUC
control in 2002, are spokespersons for the paramilitaries and
are widely suspected of financial and personal ties to them.
Pineda, a major vote getter in 2002, has reportedly been
offered the top spot on the Citizens Convergence House list.
Arias, who is running for Senate, spent the weekend looking
for a new party, but reportedly has been rejected by seven,
including Colombia Viva, which accepted Senator Dieb Maloof
after his expulsion from the "U" Party two weeks ago. Both
Arias and Pineda blame their expulsion from Colombia
Democratica on U.S. pressure and Senator Uribe's desire to
protect his U.S. visa after a week of false rumors about
changes in U.S. visa policy. At least one party leader
expects the "expulsados" to be elected, and present a new
opposition bloc to Uribe.


3. (C) Antonio Navarro's Temporary Withdrawal from
Presidential Race: Polo Democratico Alternativo Presidential
candidate and current Senator Antonio Navarro announced his
withdrawal from the presidential race, apparently leaving the
party nomination to Senator Carlos Gaviria. Navarro's
decision not to run was reportedly the result of concerns
about the Party's leftward movement and his recent drop in
the Polo Party primary polls (Ref B),from 52 to 37 percent.
Some Polo members said Navarro's departure was, in fact, a
publicity stunt. In any event, he has returned to the race
as a means of "uniting the party." Polo's continued public
gnashing of teeth regarding its platform and its failure to
announce its Senate list until the last possible day may just
be growing pains, or it could be a struggle between moderate
and far wings of the Party. This week's events, however,
highlight that the Party still lacks a clear leader, vision,
and strategy acceptable to a large slice of the electorate --
serious handicaps for a party that wants a good showing in
2006 to lay the ground work for a real shot at the presidency
in 2010.


4. (C) Conservative Party's Impossible Dream: Conservative
Party leaders say they have a multi-year strategy aimed at
taking back the Presidency in 2010. The first step is to win
25-30 seats in the Senate this year. Polls show
Conservatives lagging behind the Liberals in the Senate race,
but leaders say polling doesn't capture the national picture
because of its urban focus. They say the Conservative Party
is doing well in rural areas, as evidenced by gains in the
number of Conservative Mayors and City Council Members in the
2003 local elections and the 3 million votes cast in the
Party's November primary. The Conservatives say they support
President Uribe for re-election because his agenda is aligned
with theirs. They claim to eschew the kind of personality
politics practiced by the Liberal and Polo Parties, but the
fact is that there is no next generation of Conservative
leaders ready to challenge for the Presidency now or in 2010.


5. (SBU) Campaigns Focused on Process: With six weeks to
the Congressional elections, campaigns remain focused on the
process -- who's on what list, what's the latest potential
infraction of the Electoral Guarantees Law. Serious issues
like the peace process, poverty, displacement, fumigation,
and the Free Trade Agreement with the United States seem to
have been lost in the technical fray, perhaps an indication
of how little the differences among the major parties are.


6. (SBU) Uribe's Approval Rating Over 70 Percent: On
February 2, Gallup Colombia released the results of its
latest poll, taken January 27-30, showing President Uribe's
approval rating has jumped three points, to 72 percent, since
November 2005. Colombians are more concerned about security,
President Uribe's strong point, and less worried about
economic issues that they were two months ago. These results
are consistent with polls showing Uribe has the support of
more than 50% of likely voters needed to win in the first
round of presidential elections in May. The popularity of
Uribe's policies helps to explain the focus on process noted
in para 6.


7. (C) Alvaro Leyva's FARC Promises: Calling himself the
"Candidate of Peace," former Minister of Mines Alvaro Leyva
has launched his presidential campaign. Long suspected of
FARC ties, Leyva promises, if elected, to successfully
conclude a peace process with the forty-year old guerrilla
movement in six months. Levya, who is running under the
National Reconciliation Movement banner, is widely regarded
as erratic. He has not yet revealed his plan or overall
platform.

WOOD