URIBE CONGRESSIONAL COALITION MOVES TOWARDS AN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 011405 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2016 TAGS: ECON ETRD PGOV PREF PREL PTER CO SUBJECT: URIBE CONGRESSIONAL COALITION MOVES TOWARDS AN UNCERTAIN 2007 AS THE U PARTY ORGANIZES REF: A) BOGOTA 8108 B) BOGOTA 9795 Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood - Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. In November, President Uribe's U Party elected Senator Carlos Garcia as its new president. Garcia is an effective deal maker with an independent streak. Uribe and Garcia succeeded in passing key legislation late in the recent Congressional term. But four dissidents in the U Party--led by Senator Martha Lucia Ramirez--are now pushing for reform and threatening to leave the party. Uribe survived the chaotic Congress of his first term, but U Party and coalition gamesmanship leading toward October state and local elections will likely require more of the president's time and political skills in 2007. End summary. A New Sheriff in Town ===================== ¶2. (C) Early in its first ever the Congressional session (July-September),the U Party lacked leadership and organization and struggled to move President Uribe's legislative agenda (reftels). On November 25, the U Party elected Senator Carlos Garcia its new president. Senators Martha Lucia Ramirez and Luis Velez said the president and defense minister unsuccessfully lobbied members to elect Ramirez as director (or co-director) of the party. According to Velez, who managed Garcia's bid, Ramirez did not have the votes and he (and Garcia) could not work with her. ¶3. (C) The new party president is Senator Garcia, a career neurosurgeon with good English, and someone who can cut deals and get things done. He is intelligent, energetic, demanding, and--above all--independent. Garcia supports Uribe, but could oppose him on specific issues. He has already crossed the president, publicly calling on Foreign Minister Maria Consuelo Araujo to resign over allegations her family is associated with ex-paramilitaries. Garcia told us he would be more aggressive in exercising his and the U party's Senate prerogatives to modify legislation, specifically mentioning elements of the proposed Free Trade Agreement with the United States. U Party Dissidents Emerge ========================= ¶4. (C) Four U Party dissidents--Ramirez, Senators Armando Benedetti and Gina Parody, and Representative Nicholas Uribe--are pushing for the U Party to break with what they characterize as traditional and corrupt deal making of the past. After the U Party leadership elections they threatened to resign, and told the press that Garcia was an old-line politician unable to implement a progressive vision. Ramirez and the others said they would remain in the party for now. ¶5. (C) The naming of ex-representative German Viana secretary general of the U Party further angered Ramirez. SIPDIS She told us Viana had a reputation as a corrupt north coast politician, and was worried about possible future accusations of paramilitary ties in the Party. Garcia and Velez told us Ramirez and the other dissidents should leave the Party. "We would rather have 49 loyal party members in Congress," Garcia said, "than 53--with four who cannot be trusted." Garcia and the U Party Get Organized ==================================== ¶6. (C) Despite the early disorganization, Garcia and the U Party worked through the Uribe Administration's legislative agenda this term; passing most of the president's legislative priorities, albeit in diluted form. Garcia essentially ignored the U Party dissidents, who ended up voting with the party. Coalition Together...for Now ============================ ¶7. (C) The Uribe Congressional coalition--the U Party, the Conservatives, Cambio Radical, and several smaller parties--is holding together, but awkwardly. Cambio Radical leader German Vargas Lleras wants to be president in 2010 and may seek closer ties to the Liberal Party in 2007. The U Party is also reaching out to the Liberal Party for the 2007 local elections; there is even talk of a loose U Party-Liberal-Cambio alliance for 2010. On December 14, President Uribe met with Liberal Party leader (and former-president) Cesar Gaviria. Gaviria said he would discuss the president's offer to cooperate with the Liberals with party members early next year. Liberal Party contacts tell us an alliance with the U Party is unlikely, but local alliances--and perhaps more--with Vargas Lleras' Cambio Radical are possible. A Tough 2007 Likely =================== ¶8. (C) 2007 is likely to be tougher for the U Party and Uribe Congressional coalition. Garcia and the U Party have not yet established a platform or a process to choose candidates for October elections. This puts it far behind better organized and more ideologically coherent parties and may lead to more problems with Ramirez. Local elections in Colombia are about individual star power, and our contacts tell us that the U has few viable candidates and no clear plan. WOOD