ALL SIDES PREDICTING A PEACEFUL MAY 27

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000779

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PINS PREL ASEC KG
SUBJECT: ALL SIDES PREDICTING A PEACEFUL MAY 27

REF: BISHKEK 766

Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: One day before the May 27 opposition
demonstration in central Bishkek (reftel),both government
and opposition contacts continue to predict a violence-free
demonstration. One protest organizer told the Embassy on May
26 that the opposition is expecting 30,000 demonstrators to
take part, and said the opposition has been in talks with
police officials all week regarding plans for May 27. A
Deputy Minister of the Interior confirmed with the RSO on May
25 that MVD officials were coordinating with protest
organizers to ensure a peaceful demonstration, and said he
expected no problems. Embassy observers will monitor the
demonstration. Any incidents of violence will be reported
immediately by cable and to the Operations Center. END
SUMMARY.

NO VIOLENCE PREDICTED
--------------


2. (SBU) Both opposition and government contacts said they
expect Saturday's march and demonstration to proceed
peacefully. Deputy MVD Minister Omurbek Suvanaliyev told the
RSO that the MVD had been in talks with the opposition all
week to ensure that the demonstration remains peaceful.
Civil society leader and demonstration organizer Asiya
Sassykbayeva confirmed this to PolOff on May 25, saying talks
between the opposition and MVD had gone well and said she
expected no problems or violence. Opposition leader Emil
Aliyev, normally a reliable source of gloom and doom
predictions, told the Embassy the opposition and MVD had been
"fully cooperating," and said he expected no violence.

OPPOSITION, OTHERS PREDICTING LARGE TURNOUT
--------------


3. (C) Expectations for a strong turnout appear to be
growing. On May 24, the Kazakh Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan told
the Ambassador he believed over 30,000 people will attend the
demonstration. Listing a litany of Bakiyev mistakes, he
argued that there is strong dissatisfaction among the people
and that the opposition really did represent this anger. He
added that Defense Minister Ismail Isakov has made a mistake
in deciding to hold Armed Forces Day celebrations at the same
time and place as the demonstration, and thus needlessly
increasing the chance of a confrontation. Opposition leader
Kubatbek Baibolov told the Ambassador on May 25 that he
expected almost 100,000 people to attend, despite efforts by
the Bakiyev regime to stymie the demonstration. He claimed
that so many people were expected to come, that they were now
urging some not to come. Other opposition contacts, however,
told PolOff they are hoping for a turnout of 30,000.
Baibolov noted that groups in the south, angered by personnel
decisions by Bakiyev and recently sacked Head of the
Presidential Administration Usen Sydykov, would be
participating on Saturday. Several youth groups that did not
participate in the April 27 demonstrations like Kel Kel,
announced on May 25 that they will also participate.

POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS REMAINS
--------------


4. (C) But despite the numerous predictions for a happy and
peaceful day, there remains the potential that the
demonstration could turn violent. The Ministry of Defense
has so far stuck by its plans to hold Armed Forces Day
celebrations on Ala-Too Square at the same time as the
planned demonstration. Although opposition contacts have
told the Embassy they will begin their demonstration when the
MOD event ends around 1100, Deputy MVD Minister Suvanaliyev
told the RSO that the MOD celebration could drag on until the
afternoon. If that is the case, it will sorely try the
patience of the opposition, especially if thousands of

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protesters arrive at or are blocked from approaching the
square and are forced to wait for hours to begin the
demonstration. The opposition and even some members of the
Presidential Administration have interpreted the MOD decision
to move the Armed Forces Day celebration from May 28 to May
27 (a decision made by MOD at the last minute, and almost
certainly at the instruction of the Presidential
Administration) as a direct challenge and provocation.

EMBASSY REPORTING PLAN
--------------


5. (S//NF) The RSO will deploy local guard force
surveillance detection (SD) teams to the area around Ala-Too
square. RSO will also increase Mobile Patrols in
neighborhoods of Mission residences nearest the center of
town. The Embassy will also have one observer in an office
overlooking the square. In the absence of violence or
unexpected events, Post will not report on the demonstration
over the weekend or Memorial Day holiday, although SIMO plans
to report in its channels on May 27. RSO sent out a security
notice on Thursday requiring Mission personnel to avoid the
demonstrations and obey all local police restrictions in the
area.


6. (C) COMMENT: The peaceful conclusion to the April 29
demonstration proved to both the government and opposition
that large, peaceful demonstrations are possible in Bishkek.
This lesson - along with the reasonably moderate rhetoric and
demands on the part of the opposition - has certainly
influenced planning for the May 27 protest, and is probably
responsible for the lack of dire predictions in the days
before the demonstration. Nevertheless, the potential for
trouble remains. Large crowds are difficult to manage
anywhere ) but particularly here ) and even a small
incident could cause either the government or opposition to
overreact, despite the best efforts of both sides to maintain
order. In contrast to the downpour on April 29, the weather
forecast for tomorrow is clear and sunny.
YOVANOVITCH