BAKIYEV REJECTS MINISTERS' OFFER TO RESIGN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000648 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KG SUBJECT: BAKIYEV REJECTS MINISTERS' OFFER TO RESIGN, THREATENS TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 2, sixteen ministers submitted their resignations to President Bakiyev, which Bakiyev refused to accept. The offers to resign came after the Parliament on April 28 passed non-binding no-confidence votes against thirteen ministers (Parliament approved of the work of only three ministers). Later on May 2, the Presidential Press Service issued a written statement in which President Bakiyev threatened to dissolve the Parliament "in the event insurmountable differences arise between the Parliament and Executive Branch." Bakiyev's threat ) which he has the constitutional authority to make good on - was a clear warning to the Parliament not to let opposition deputies drive the legislative branch agenda. However, few observers believe Bakiyev will move anytime soon to actually dissolve the Parliament. END SUMMARY. ALTOGETHER NOW, RESIGN! -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to both press reports and Embassy contacts, on May 2 sixteen ministers, including the two Vice Prime Ministers, offered their resignations, which President Bakiyev refused to accept. At a press conference specifically called to discuss the resignation offers, Vice Prime Minister Adakhan Madumarov said that sixteen tendered their resignations during a cabinet meeting with President Bakiyev on May 2. According to Madumarov, Bakiyev listened carefully to each minister, and then refused to accept their offers to resign. However, according to Madumarov, Bakiyev did thank the ministers for "taking a manly step" and offering to resign. (Note: He can say this as there are no female ministers in the government. End note.) ¶3. (SBU) Madumarov said that Bakiyev also "categorically disagreed" with Parliament's April 28 votes of no-confidence against the thirteen ministers. Madumarov acknowledged, however, that although the votes by the Parliament are non-binding, they do carry "moral responsibility." ¶4. (C) Parliamentarian Omurbek Babanov told PolOff that the offer to resign was nothing more than a sideshow and an empty gesture towards the Parliament. Opposition leader and parliamentarian Kubatbek Baibolov, however, told PolOff that the resignations were part of a failed ploy on the part of the Presidential Administration to force Prime Minister Kulov out of the government. According to Baibolov, sixteen ministers and vice prime ministers signed a document officially declaring their intention to resign (the text of the document has been reprinted in the Kyrgyz press). The hope, according to Baibolov, was that Kulov, as head of the government, would add his name to the document, at which point Bakiyev would accept all of the resignations. However, Kulov apparently refused to add his name to the document, thereby dooming the plan. (NOTE: Kulov, along with three other ministers, received positive evaluations from the Parliament on April 28. However, the three other ministers who received a positive evaluation DID sign the resignation offer. END NOTE). Baibolov mocked the plan as "childish and primitive," but said it was typical of the way the Bakiyev administration operates. Baibolov said the move to oust Kulov was in retaliation for Kulov's alleged support for the April 29 opposition demonstration. According to Baibolov, many in the Presidential Administration believe that Kulov tacitly supported the demonstration in hopes of putting pressure on Bakiyev. THREAT TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT "AN EMPTY BLUFF"? -------------- -- ¶5. (C) The text of the document signed by the sixteen ministers offering to resign also claimed that the no-confidence vote by the Parliament created "insurmountable differences between the Parliament and government." (NOTE: BISHKEK 00000648 002 OF 002 The ambiguous phrase "insurmountable differences" is a key one, lifted directly from the Kyrgyz Constitution's deliberately vague language spelling out conditions under which the President can legally dissolve the Parliament. END NOTE.) Later on May 2, the Presidential Press Service issued a press release regarding the tendered resignations. The press statement quoted President Bakiyev, highlighting the same phrase, as saying that "in the event of insurmountable differences between the Parliament and Executive Branch, I will be required to exercise my constitutional right and undertake decisive measures in relation to the Parliament." Bakiyev's threat to take "decisive measures" clearly meant dissolving the Parliament. One political observer familiar with Daniyar Narymbayev, the President's representative in Parliament, noted that the use of the phrase pointed directly at Narymbayev as the possible author of the statement signed by the sixteen ministers. ¶6. (C) Both Babanov and Baibolov dismissed Bakiyev's statement about dissolving the Parliament as an empty threat. Baibolov said that Bakiyev lacks the decisiveness and political strength to actually dismiss the legislature. Nevertheless, Baibolov acknowledged that "perhaps 80 percent" of deputies fear that Bakiyev might some day move to dissolve the Parliament. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Baibolov's claim that the resignations were part of a failed plan to force Kulov out may be far-fetched. But given the depths to which Bakiyev and Kulov have gone in the past to undermine one another, and the current antipathy between Bakiyev and opposition deputies in Parliament, it cannot be ruled out. It is also likely that the mass resignation was part of a larger effort to discredit and intimidate the Parliament, initiated from the Presidential Administration. It is conceivable that the "insurmountable differences" wording could give Bakiyev the means to dissolve the Parliament, and then subsequently pressure the Central Election Commission to prevent opposition parliamentarians from obtaining registration as election candidates. More likely, however, Bakiyev may try to hold this threat over the head of Parliament for some time in hopes of getting a more pliant, Bakiyev-friendly legislature. It may also be intended as a shot across the bow of Baibolov and other opposition deputies currently planning another major demonstration on May 27. YOVANOVITCH