TOUGH TALK AMID HOPES FOR LAST MINUTE COMPROMISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000625 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KCRM KG SUBJECT: TOUGH TALK AMID HOPES FOR LAST MINUTE COMPROMISE ON APRIL 29 DEMONSTRATION REF: A. BISHKEK 614 ¶B. BISHKEK 503 ¶C. BISHKEK 605 Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Tensions seemed to ease somewhat one day before the large opposition demonstration planned for April 29 in Central Bishkek. Chief organizer Almaz Atambayev told PolOff on April 28 that he hoped for 20,000 people at the demonstration, but most Embassy contacts believe 4000-6000 a more realistic number. Unlike his past two meetings with the Embassy, Atambayev played down the possibility of violence, but said he can't rule it out. Atambayev told PolOff that he and other opposition leaders had met privately with President Bakiyev, but he described the meetings as unproductive. The government continues to take the demonstration very seriously, with the Interior Ministry planning to deploy every available police officer to maintain control in Bishkek. Numerous Embassy contacts reported that the National Security Service continues to pressure demonstration organizers and others not to attend the rally, although a senior government official told the Ambassador on April 27 that no such pressure was being applied. END SUMMARY. RUMORS OF COMPROMISE IN THE AIR -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Minister of Industry, Trade and Tourism and chief demonstration organizer Almaz Atambayev told PolOff that he had met one on one with President Bakiyev on the evening of April 28. Atambayev described the meeting as friendly, but said he and Bakiyev had not agreed on any kind of compromise, and said Bakiyev had agreed only to help "make peace" between the Central Election Commission (CEC) and organized crime boss Ryspek Akmatbayev. (NOTE: The CEC and Akmatbayev have been locked in a long-running dispute over Akmatbayev's candidacy for parliament (reftel b). END NOTE). Atambayev said other opposition leaders had also met separately with Bakiyev, but said their meeting had also achieved nothing. Busurmankul Tabaldiyev, Head of the Presidential Administration Department of Defense and Security, told the Ambassador on April 27 that President Bakiyev was working with civil society members to create a dialogue with opposition leaders, but provided no other details. At 1730 on April 28, civil society leader Asiya Sasykbayeva told PolOff that opposition parliamentarians Temir Sariev and Omurbek Tekebayev had told Sasykbayeva that they were ready to meet again with Bakiyev. But Sasykbayeva said other opposition leaders were unwilling to meet with Bakiyev, claiming further meetings with him would be pointless. TONING DOWN THE RHETORIC - SOMEWHAT -------------- ¶3. (C) Unlike his previous two meetings with the Embassy, Atambayev seemed less resigned to the possibility of violence on April 29. He stressed that the opposition would not initiate any violence, and confirmed reports that opposition organizers would provide up to 1500 of their own security people to help maintain control. Later on April 28, Atambayev held a press conference at which he stressed repeatedly that the demonstration would be entirely peaceful, and said any acts of violence would be initiated by the government or criminal elements and not by the opposition. BAKIYEV: "I'LL BREAK THEIR ARMS" -------------- ¶4. (C) The government, however, continued to talk tough. At a press conference on April 26, President Bakiyev said he would "break the arms" of anyone trying to overrun the White House on April 29, and said security forces would "use the strongest possible measures" to prevent demonstrators from storming the White House. Other government officials have BISHKEK 00000625 002 OF 003 also spoken openly in recent days of their intention to use deadly force to prevent any takeover of the White House. Political analyst and former Foreign Minister Muratbek Imanaliyev told PolOff that such talk was meant less to discourage a potential coup attempt than to convince ordinary people not attend the rally out of fear of bloodshed. On April 27, several NGOs issued a press release protesting Bakiyev's comments, saying they had been horrified by such language coming from the President. THE HARD SELL CONTINUES -------------- ¶5. (C) Numerous Embassy contacts confirmed that the SNB and Presidential Administration are working overtime to intimidate demonstration organizers and convince others not to attend the protest. Former Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva (whose political party is conspicuously NOT supporting the demonstration) told the Ambassador that she knew of several people who had been threatened by the SNB over their participation in the rally. Both Muratbek Imanaliyev and Almaz Atambayev said they too had heard numerous reports of the same. Imanaliyev said he had been told by a BBC correspondent that journalists were also being told by the Presidential Administration "to keep away" from the demonstration's main opposition organizers. Atambayev alleged that members of mob figure Ryspek Akmatbayev's gang are intimidating protest organizers, and are going around telling bus drivers in towns surrounding Bishkek not to drive demonstrators to Bishkek on April 29. Busurmankul Tabaldiyev told the Ambassador that he had been traveling around the country, trying to convince people not to take part in the demonstration. He said such efforts had been successful in most parts of the country, but admitted that "in Chui Oblast (where Bishkek is located) we've still got some work to do." However, Tabaldiyev denied that the SNB had pressured anyone about attending the demonstration. ¶6. (C) The intimidation efforts appear to have been at least somewhat successful, particularly among youth-oriented NGOs. NGOs Kel-Kel (reftel a) and the National Student Union both decided not to back the rally )- Kel-Kel after receiving threats from the SNB, and the Student Union out of fears of violence on April 29. Muratbek Imanaliyev told PolOff that young NGO leaders were easily frightened off, but said that more seasoned activists such as human rights advocate Aziza Abdrasulova - who has also received threatening phone calls - would demonstrate on April 29 regardless of threats. FEARS OF VIOLENCE REMAIN -------------- ¶7. (C) Roza Otunbayeva told the Ambassador on April 27 that she expects some kind of violence to occur on April 29. Student Union leader Elnura Osmonalieva (protect) told PolOff the Union board had voted not to participate in the rally out of fears of violence, particularly that the government or Ryspek Akmatbayev would cause some kind of "provocation." Muratbek Imanaliyev said his contacts in the SNB said that opinion within the SNB was divided over whether Ryspek Akmatbayev would attempt to disrupt the rally. Two contacts told the Embassy on April 27 that Akmatbayev's people were already in Bishkek in preparation for the demonstration, but had no information on what Akmatbayev's plans might be. POLICE VOW TO MAINTAIN ORDER -------------- ¶8. (C) In separate meetings on April 28, the Minister and Deputy Minister of the Interior told the Embassy that police would do everything possible to prevent violence on April 29, and that troublemakers would be dealt with harshly. Minister Sutalinov told ARSO that police officials were in close contact with the opposition, government, NGOs and even organized crime groups in an effort to prevent violence. Sutalinov told ARSO that his personal view is that there will BISHKEK 00000625 003 OF 003 be no violence. In a separate meeting, Deputy MVD Minister Suvanaliyev told the Ambassador that demonstration organizers had followed the law in notifying the city of their intent to demonstrate, and agreed with the Ambassador that the opposition has a right to peacefully express its views. Suvanaliyev said he had heard unconfirmed reports that Ryspek Akmatbayev would try to bring his people to Bishkek on April 29, adding that police would use "strong measures" against any pro-Akmatbayev demonstration. ATTENDANCE FIGURES, DURATION OF PROTEST STILL UP IN THE AIR -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Atambayev told PolOff that his Social Democratic party alone would bring 10,000 demonstrators to Bishkek's main square, but said he was unsure of how many people other sponsors would bring (although he still hopes for an overall turnout of 20,000). Other Embassy contacts, however, estimated that 4000-6000 participants is a more likely figure. Atambayev admitted that getting people from his party to Bishkek would be difficult in the event roads leading to Bishkek are closed. Atambayev told PolOff that the duration of the demonstration would only be decided by opposition leaders on the evening of April 28. At his press conference, he said organizers notified the city of their intent to stay on the square for up to five days. ¶10. (C) COMMENT: At this point, any last minute compromise between Bakiyev and the opposition seems highly unlikely. By all accounts, Bakiyev is unwilling to meet any of the opposition demands or even engage opposition leaders in a serious dialogue. Sensing this, most opposition leaders seem to have given up hope that any further meetings with the President could achieve real results. Nevertheless, there is no question that tensions seem to have eased over the past two days. The opposition is no longer hinting that it might try to seize the White House, and has bent over backward in recent days to stress their peaceful intentions. The government, for its part, although still working hard to frighten off demonstrators, has not tried to arrest or detain opposition leaders or try to ban the demonstration outright - measures that were considered entirely possible only a few days ago. However, the potential for violence remains real, and both the opposition and government have stressed repeatedly that should it occur they will be ready. YOVANOVITCH