MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS FOLLOWING KYRGYZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001787

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS FOLLOWING KYRGYZ
GOVERNMENT RESIGNATION

REF: BISHKEK 1784

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Classified By: DCM Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In the immediate aftermath of the surprise
resignations of Prime Minister Kulov and other members of the
government December 19, one thing has not changed: the
government. The Prime Minister and all of the ministers are
continuing in their positions as "acting" ministers, and this
may continue indefinitely. But beyond that, nothing is
clear, including whether there will be early parliamentary
elections or how issues will be resolved under the new
constitution. Reaction to the move varied widely, with some
in the opposition accusing the government of playing a "dirty
game," while others see an opportunity. At this point, no
one knows how this will play out, and there are more
questions than answers.


2. (C) Some commentators had predicted that the Bakiyev
government would make a show of strength against the
parliament. Former director of the International Institute
of Strategic Studies Valentin Bogatyryov told us earlier that
the Bakiyev insiders had floated a plan for dissolving
parliament -- much to the dismay of some pro-Bakiyev MPs who
were worried about financing new election campaigns. He said
that key figures in the presidential administration believed
that by forcing new parliamentary elections and fielding a
single party, they could gain control of everything.
Bogatyryov doubted that the administration was organized
enough to pull it off. And there are some indications that
the government may have overplayed its hand -- or at least
that things were not going according to plan. Late on
December 19, Deputy Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov indicated
to the Ambassador that he was surprised that the parliament
had not moved to dissolve itself.


3. (C) The government resignation took parliamentarians by
surprise. Some opposition MPs, perhaps predictably, reacted
negatively to the mass resignation. MP Kubatbek Baibolov
told us that it was "another silly move" by the president, as
there was no need to get rid of the government under the new
constitution. He said he thought parliament could pass a law
covering the formation of a new government during this
transitional period under the new constitution, and it was
"highly unlikely" that the parliament would dissolve itself.
He expressed concern about any upcoming elections, noting
that the current electoral code needed to be revised to bring
it in line with the new constitution, and the Chairman of the
Central Election Commission, Tuigunaaly Abdraimov, had been
forced to resign on December 19. Baibolov said Bakiyev
wanted someone he could more easily manipulate during the
next election. Baibolov predicted that the current "unstable
situation" would continue until the summer, with more
demonstrations possible.


4. (C) Government critic (and AUCA Vice President) Bakyt
Beshimov called the move "beyond understanding." He said
that Bakiyev already commanded a working majority in the
parliament, and there was no need to try to force new
elections. He predicted that if the government continued
down this confrontational path, it could provoke a
north-south "civil war."


5. (C) NGO Coalition leader and opposition For Reforms
movement member Edil Baisalov, however, was more upbeat,
saying that the government's move created an opportunity, and
he welcomed the prospect of new parliamentary elections by
party list. He did not anticipate that For Reforms would
transform itself into a political party, but the new
elections would lead to the formation of election blocs, and
those (like himself) who were not members of parties would
join one of the blocs.


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6. (C) COMMENT: What has been clear from talking to people
in and out of government is that no one knows how this will
play out, or what procedures will be followed under the new
constitution. Prime Minister Kulov told the press yesterday
that the move would hasten new parliamentary elections;
Justice Minister Kayipov told the press today that the
government did not want to dissolve parliament. It is
incomprehensible -- but not completely surprising given this
government's track record -- to think the government may not
have planned for all the possible scenarios following such a
drastic move. In the past months, most recently during the
November demonstrations, the Kyrgyz have come up to the
brink, only to pull back. With this latest gambit, the
Kyrgyz appear once again to be edging toward the brink.
YOVANOVITCH