MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS FOLLOWING KYRGYZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001787 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS FOLLOWING KYRGYZ GOVERNMENT RESIGNATION REF: BISHKEK 1784 BISHKEK 00001787 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) In the immediate aftermath of the surprise resignations of Prime Minister Kulov and other members of the government December 19, one thing has not changed: the government. The Prime Minister and all of the ministers are continuing in their positions as "acting" ministers, and this may continue indefinitely. But beyond that, nothing is clear, including whether there will be early parliamentary elections or how issues will be resolved under the new constitution. Reaction to the move varied widely, with some in the opposition accusing the government of playing a "dirty game," while others see an opportunity. At this point, no one knows how this will play out, and there are more questions than answers. ¶2. (C) Some commentators had predicted that the Bakiyev government would make a show of strength against the parliament. Former director of the International Institute of Strategic Studies Valentin Bogatyryov told us earlier that the Bakiyev insiders had floated a plan for dissolving parliament -- much to the dismay of some pro-Bakiyev MPs who were worried about financing new election campaigns. He said that key figures in the presidential administration believed that by forcing new parliamentary elections and fielding a single party, they could gain control of everything. Bogatyryov doubted that the administration was organized enough to pull it off. And there are some indications that the government may have overplayed its hand -- or at least that things were not going according to plan. Late on December 19, Deputy Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov indicated to the Ambassador that he was surprised that the parliament had not moved to dissolve itself. ¶3. (C) The government resignation took parliamentarians by surprise. Some opposition MPs, perhaps predictably, reacted negatively to the mass resignation. MP Kubatbek Baibolov told us that it was "another silly move" by the president, as there was no need to get rid of the government under the new constitution. He said he thought parliament could pass a law covering the formation of a new government during this transitional period under the new constitution, and it was "highly unlikely" that the parliament would dissolve itself. He expressed concern about any upcoming elections, noting that the current electoral code needed to be revised to bring it in line with the new constitution, and the Chairman of the Central Election Commission, Tuigunaaly Abdraimov, had been forced to resign on December 19. Baibolov said Bakiyev wanted someone he could more easily manipulate during the next election. Baibolov predicted that the current "unstable situation" would continue until the summer, with more demonstrations possible. ¶4. (C) Government critic (and AUCA Vice President) Bakyt Beshimov called the move "beyond understanding." He said that Bakiyev already commanded a working majority in the parliament, and there was no need to try to force new elections. He predicted that if the government continued down this confrontational path, it could provoke a north-south "civil war." ¶5. (C) NGO Coalition leader and opposition For Reforms movement member Edil Baisalov, however, was more upbeat, saying that the government's move created an opportunity, and he welcomed the prospect of new parliamentary elections by party list. He did not anticipate that For Reforms would transform itself into a political party, but the new elections would lead to the formation of election blocs, and those (like himself) who were not members of parties would join one of the blocs. BISHKEK 00001787 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) COMMENT: What has been clear from talking to people in and out of government is that no one knows how this will play out, or what procedures will be followed under the new constitution. Prime Minister Kulov told the press yesterday that the move would hasten new parliamentary elections; Justice Minister Kayipov told the press today that the government did not want to dissolve parliament. It is incomprehensible -- but not completely surprising given this government's track record -- to think the government may not have planned for all the possible scenarios following such a drastic move. In the past months, most recently during the November demonstrations, the Kyrgyz have come up to the brink, only to pull back. With this latest gambit, the Kyrgyz appear once again to be edging toward the brink. YOVANOVITCH