A PRIMER TO POLITICAL PARTIES OF KYRGYZSTAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001744 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KG SUBJECT: A PRIMER TO POLITICAL PARTIES OF KYRGYZSTAN Ref: Bishkek 1587 BISHKEK 00001744 001.2 OF 003 Sensitive but unclassified. Not for Internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Kyrgyzstan's new constitution envisions an increasingly important role for political parties in the parliament and in forming the government. Under the new constitution, half of the 90 seats in the new parliament will be elected by party list, and the majority party (among those elected by party list) in the parliament will have the right to form the government and nominate the prime minister. The term of the current parliament runs until 2010, although there is a possibility that the parliament could be dissolved and new elections called sooner. Currently, among nearly 90 officially registered parties, only about a dozen play a significant role. No one party is dominant, and it is doubtful that any current party could gain a majority in parliament without significant resources and lots of finagling. Given the altered political landscape, parties and party leaders are beginning to position themselves for the inevitable mergers based on compromise and shared interests that will be necessary for their future survival. End summary. General overview -------------- ¶2. (U) According to the most recent official list, there were 88 officially registered parties among the population of five million. The first parties that emerged following Kyrgyzstan's independence in 1991 were the "Erkin Kyrgyzstan" (Free Kyrgyzstan) Democratic Party and the "Asaba" (Banner) Party of National Revival. The Communist party survived the collapse of the Soviet Union and was registered in 1992 as the Party of Communists of Kyrgyzstan. Over the next dozen years, there was steady growth in the number of parties, with one to three parties established each year. Following the "Tulip Revolution" in March 2005, there was a real boom, as the number of parties almost doubled. Many of these parties, however, exist on paper only. According to the law on political parties, a minimum of 10 people can launch a new party. It became rather popular among prominent political figures to have their own party, which, quite often, consists just of family members and close friends. ¶3. (SBU) The large number of political parties does not necessarily mean that there is wide political pluralism. Out of almost 90 parties, only a dozen determine, to varying degrees, the political landscape of Kyrgyzstan. Practically all parties have democratic development as the key element of their platforms. They differ by the degree of popularity of the leader, quantity and "quality" of members, efficiency of party management and administration, and resources. None of the parties is a truly national party. ¶4. (SBU) Below is a snapshot of currently active parties, with a breakdown based on their present political orientation, arranged in chronologic order (year of establishment and leader name is given in brackets): Pro-Government: -- The Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan party (1993; Viktor Tchetrnomorets): This party was very popular in the 1990s, but now has limited support; it is used by the government when it needs a demonstration of "popular support" for the government. -- The "Erkindik" (Freedom) party (2000; Topchubek Turgunaliyev, father-in-law of deceased mobster Ryspek Akmatbayev): This party often publicly expresses support for the government, but its efforts almost always have a negative effect because of the poor reputation of its leader. -- The Republican Party of Labor and Unity (2005; Tabaldy Orozaliyev): Many party members are wealthy people and/or government officials; recently, this party proposed a long-term BISHKEK 00001744 002.2 OF 003 economic development program known as the "Five Passes," which President Bakiyev strongly supported, even though it was widely known that at the time the prime minister's office was developing a competing economic strategy; potentially, this party can be highly competitive because it has substantial human and financial resources and is very likely to get a lot of support from the government. -- The "Sanjira" (Tree of Life) party (2006; Ednan Karabayev): One of the new parties that is used by the government as a think-tank; currently, its potential to win elections is low. -- The "Sodrujestvo" party (2006; Vladimir Nifadyev and Samat Borubayev): This is a new party that has many representatives of academia and business circles in its ranks; it openly pushes a pro-Russia and defense of ethnic Russians platform; the Russian Ambassador presided at its March 2006 opening, and it is said to receive funding from Russia; potential to win elections is low. Opposition: -- The "Asaba" (Banner) party (1991; Deputy Azimbek Beknazarov and former Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva): This party has more support in the south than in the north; many people, especially in the north, do not support this party because of its nationalistic views, its recent unpopular stand regarding stripping the Russian language of its official status, and the perception that its current leaders are controversial. -- The "Ata-Meken" (Fatherland) Party (1992; Deputy Omurbek Tekebayev): This is one of the oldest parties, which has offices throughout the country; it actively participated in the "Tulip Revolution" and in rallies in the spring and fall of 2006; however, the open opposition stance of its leadership is not always supported by party members with more moderate views, which could undermine the party's strength before an election. -- The Social Democratic Party (1994; former Industry and Trade Minister Almaz Atambayev): This party has a long history and a lot of experience; it actively participated in the "Tulip Revolution" and in rallies in the spring and fall of 2006; its leader owns several businesses and can easily recruit human and financial resources to support his party; it is doubtful however that the party will gain the required majority. Independent: -- The Party of Communists of Kyrgyzstan (1992; Deputy Iskhak Masaliyev, son of former party boss who ran Kyrgyzstan for six years during the Soviet Union time): Even though as late as 2000 this party was able to gain one-third of the party list seats in the lower house of the former parliament (5 out of 15 seats),its popularity has been in steady decline. The party suffered a split in its ranks, and perhaps communist ideas have become less and less attractive. In addition, the bulk of its membership consists of elderly people; young people are not rushing to join this party. -- The "Moya Strana" (My Country) Party (1998; led by Deputy Head of Presidential Staff Medet Sadyrkulov; previous leader - Joomart Otorbayev): There are quite a few bright personalities in its ranks (deputy chief of presidential staff Medet Sadyrkulov, law professor and political expert Zainidin Kurmanov); it has a carefully thought out program, though its agenda appears aimed more to intelligentsia, rather than to the workers and farmers who are the majority of the electorate. The party participated in opposition rallies in spring of 2006, but stayed away from the November protests; however, it made several official statements denouncing harassment of independent media and arranging counter-demonstrations; in the statement, the party urged both the government and the opposition to sit down to the negotiations table. By the end of the year, the party will elect its new leader and, depending on who this is, the party's stand may change to pro-government. BISHKEK 00001744 003.2 OF 003 -- The "Arnamyz" (Dignity) party (1999; Emil Aliyev): After losing (at least temporarily) its charismatic leader, Felix Kulov, who suspended his membership for the period of his term as prime minister, this party has become less popular, its role has become less conspicuous in the political arena, and the party has experienced internal fighting for power. -- The Union of Democratic Forces (2005; Deputy Kubatbek Baibolov, former KGB official): This is a fairly new party established in 2005; its leader is a wealthy businessman, a strong personality, and a good organizer. He is an ambitious politician, and if he puts all these qualities to work and if the party establishes its network throughout the country, this party may become a strong competitor at the next election, but probably will still not be strong enough to win a majority of the seats. United we stand, divided we fall . . . -------------- ¶5. (U) According to the new constitution, half of the 90 deputies will be elected by party lists; the party that gets over 50% of seats to which deputies are elected from party lists (i.e., at least 23 deputies),nominates the prime minister and forms the government. This provision will encourage political party development and boost competition for votes at the next election. ¶6. (U) Modern Kyrgyz history already has experienced one election by party lists. According to the laws that existed in 2000, a quarter of 60 deputies of the lower chamber of the then bi-cameral parliament was elected from party lists. In 2000, there were 28 political parties, but only 15 of them were qualified to nominate candidates. Five out of the 15 parties formed two electoral blocs. The following parties (that remain politically active) exceeded the required 5-percent threshold and received a pro-rated number of seats: the Party of Communists of Kyrgyzstan, the "Ata-Meken" Party, the My Country party, and the Social Democratic Party (as a part of a bloc). In 2003, the constitution was amended; as a result, the parliament became unicameral and the provision allowing election by party lists was eliminated. In the current parliament elected in 2005, there are deputies affiliated with some political parties, but they were elected from constituencies, not as party candidates. ¶7. (SBU) The new constitution sets a high threshold for political parties to play the key role in forming the government. Looking at the current political landscape, it seems unlikely that any single party could secure a majority to become the ruling party. Since the constitution does not provide for party blocs, mergers will be necessary. Political parties will have to assess realistically their potential, and vanity parties with limited membership will have to curb their ambitions and seek compromise with politicians sharing the same or similar views. If such a pragmatic approach prevails, in the next couple years -- or sooner -- we will witness the formation of political alliances and mergers of parties with similar platforms. YOVANOVITCH