KYRGYZSTAN PROTEST "DE-ESCALATING"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001571 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ASEC KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN PROTEST "DE-ESCALATING" REF: A. BISHKEK 1566 ¶B. BISHKEK 1565 ¶C. BISHKEK 1554 ¶D. BISHKEK 1551 ¶E. BISHKEK 1548 ¶F. BISHKEK 1537 ¶G. STATE 180495 BISHKEK 00001571 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Late on November 7, opposition and pro-government parliamentarians reached agreement on a draft of a new constitution that reportedly strengthens the role of the parliament. This latest draft follows the submission of proposed amendments to the constitution by President Bakiyev to Parliament on November 6, and the "adoption" of a new constitution by a "constituent assembly" consisting of opposition MPs late in the night of November 6-7. Following changes to its procedural rules, Parliament was scheduled to begin hearings on this newest draft on November 8. ¶2. (C) Following clashes between opposition and pro-Bakiyev demonstrators that required police intervention on November 7, both groups continued their demonstrations on November 8 without incident (as of 17:00 local),with approximately 5000 opposition demonstrators on Ala-too Square, and approximately 1500 pro-government demonstrators gathered on nearby Old Square in front of the Parliament. The OSCE office in Bishkek released a statement offering to help mediate the dispute between the government and the opposition, but neither government nor opposition has expressed interest in the proposal. With this latest possible compromise over the constitution, the current confrontation appears to be de-escalating, but with many important issues unresolved, the near-term situation remains uncertain. END SUMMARY. Agreement on a Draft Constitution? -------------- ¶3. (C) The slow pace of constitutional reform has been a central issue in the ongoing confrontation between the government of President Bakiyev and the political opposition. For over a year, both sides have argued over the form of government and the restrictions on power that should be embodied in a new constitution (Ref F). When the opposition began its protest November 2, its leaders said that the protest would continue until either President Bakiyev went forward with constitutional reform or he and his government resigned. On November 6, Bakiyev officially submitted to Parliament a draft amending the current constitution, increasing some authority of the parliament but largely retaining the strong role of the executive (Ref A). Late on November 6, opposition MPs, dissatisfied with the President's proposal, called an extraordinary session of Parliament. When they failed to maintain a quorum, they declared themselves to be a "constituent assembly" and adopted a new constitution with a mixed presidential-parliamentary system. President Bakiyev denounced the constituent assembly as "illegal" and an attempt to grab power, but suggested that a reconciliation commission meet to examine and comment on his suggested constitutional changes. ¶4. (C) Late on November 7, Speaker of Parliament Sultanov and opposition MP Beknazarov announced that a reconciliation group had agreed on a new draft constitution (Russian text e-mailed to SCA/CEN). According to Sultanov, this new draft proposed a mixed presidential-parliamentary form of government, but with greater powers given to the parliament. Under this draft, the parliament would consist of 90 members, half elected from party lists and half from single-member constituencies. The majority party in parliament would form the government, but if no party controlled at least 50 percent of the seats, the president would form the government. In addition, the SNB, as well as economic and BISHKEK 00001571 002.2 OF 003 energy agencies, would be under the government, not the president. Sultanov said that Parliament would first adopt changes to its procedural rules to provide a mechanism for adopting a new constitution by the Parliament without reference to the Constitutional Court, and then it would proceed with consideration of the new draft. On November 8, Parliament passed a bill with the proposed changes to its procedural rules, but President Bakiyev has not yet signed the bill into law (as of November 8, 17:00 local). We also understand that a reconciliation commission is meeting to review the latest draft, raising questions as to whether a deal actually was reached. Opposition and Pro-Government Demonstrators Clash -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Mid-morning on November 7, a group of approximately 300 pro-Bakiyev demonstrators rallied in front of the Parliament building on the Old Square (approximately 2 blocks from Ala-too Square). Around 11:15, pro-opposition demonstrators began arriving at the Old Square from Ala-too Square. Less than 100 opposition demonstrators confronted (verbally) the pro-Bakiyev demonstrators, and police moved in quickly to separate the two groups. The confrontation ended without incident. ¶6. (C) By mid-afternoon November 7, the opposition crowd at Ala-too Square had grown to 3500-4000. One of the demonstration leaders, MP Babanov, exhorted the crowd to move to Old Square to confront the pro-Bakiyev demonstrators. As opposition demonstrators gathered on Old Square, the police formed a line between the two groups. Shouting between the groups soon led to rocks and bottles (mostly empty plastic bottles) being thrown. The police then used tear gas and pushed the groups farther apart, and after a few minutes, the crowd was subdued. The MVD reported that there were 18 injuries, but that no firearms had been used. Protests Continue November 8 -------------- ¶7. (C) Opposition protesters continued their rally overnight November 7-8 at Ala-too Square. Approximately 200 protesters spent the night in the 16 yurts and dozens of tents that have been erected there. One of the demonstration leaders expressed his concern to us that a number of "new faces" had appeared around Ala-too Square late in the evening, and he was worried about a possible confrontation. The night passed without incident. As of 17:00 November 8, there were approximately 5000 opposition protesters on Ala-too Square. There were also approximately 1500 pro-Bakiyev demonstrators at the Old Square in front of Parliament, and they had set up at least 4 yurts. Both rallies continued to have speakers and singers to entertain the crowds. In addition to the usual food and water being distributed, we saw cases of vodka being transported to the squares. The Russian beer company "Baltika" was seen setting up a large tent at the site of the pro-Bakiyev rally. Police remain in the area. ¶8. (C) However, at 18:30 on November 8, NGO Coalition leader Edil Baisalov told the crowd at the opposition rally that the MVD had arrested four individuals at Ala-too Square, and that those individuals had told the MVD that they had been hired to start a provocation with the opposition. MVD confirmed to us that it had arrested four individuals from Osh with two handguns at Ala-too Square. (Comment: We are concerned by these arrests, as this is the first incident involving weapons during this week-long protest, but we think it is too soon to draw conclusions about who or what may have been behind these individuals. End Comment.) ¶9. (C) On November 7, there were pro-Bakiyev demonstrations in the southern cities of Osh, Jalalabad, and Batken. As many as 7000 reportedly turned out in Osh, and 1500 in both BISHKEK 00001571 003.2 OF 003 Jalalabad and Batken for rallies of short duration. There was a small opposition rally in Naryn, and there were both pro-government and opposition rallies (600 demonstrators each) in Talas. There have been no reported incidents at these demonstrations. Reports that large numbers of pro-Bakiyev demonstrators were being bused into Bishkek from the south have not proved true so far. Additional pro-government rallies were planned for November 8. OSCE Offers Mediation -------------- ¶9. (C) Late on November 7, the OSCE office in Bishkek issued a statement (faxed to SCA/CEN) offering to assist in facilitating a dialogue between the opposition and government over the substance and timetable for a new constitution. On November 8, OSCE representatives told us that neither the government nor the opposition had approached the OSCE regarding its offer of assistance. ¶10. (C) At a November 8 OSCE meeting of Ambassadors and senior representatives of like-minded missions in Bishkek (U.S., Germany, Kazakhstan, UN, and OSCE),the group believed that the militia's use of tear gas and other actions to separate the demonstrators on November 7 had been justified. The German Ambassador characterized the police response as "proportionate." The group, however, was also critical of the government's handling of the situation, especially in allowing the pro-Bakiyev demonstrations to go forward. The Kazakhstani Ambassador said that Bakiyev and his advisors had made "lots of mistakes." He said that if they understand the current situation, they will compromise; if they don't, they will soon be out of power. The group agreed that with the apparent compromise on the constitution, the situation was de-escalating. However, other important issues -- such as the struggle over property with Bakiyev's family -- remain unresolved, and will color the political landscape until they are resolved. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Events of the past few days have shown that the Bakiyev-Kulov tandem lives on. Despite rumors that he would resign and join the opposition, Kulov clearly demonstrated that he was in Bakiyev's camp in a joint press conference November 7. Bakiyev owes Kulov a great debt, because if Kulov had left the tandem, the whole political dynamic would have changed to Bakiyev's detriment. Kulov appears to be collecting on this debt already with the appointment of his close ally Omurbek Suvanaliyev as Interior Minister, putting the MVD under Kulov's influence, if not outright control. ¶12. (C) Both the government and the opposition appear to have stepped back from the brink they reached on November 7. High-level negotiations over a constitutional draft continue, and confrontation between the demonstrators has been avoided for the last 24 hours. The possible compromise over the constitution, if successful, will remove the most salient grievance of the opposition and will ease tensions on the street. However, other contentious issues -- such as Bakiyev's nepotism, efforts to monopolize lucrative businesses, and his harassment of opposition leaders -- will remain to spark friction between the President and the opposition. We concur with our colleagues that both the political and security pictures have improved, but note that with large numbers of pro- and anti-Bakiyev demonstrators still on the street, the situation remains fluid and could change quickly. YOVANOVITCH