KYRGYZSTAN PROTEST UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001554 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN PROTEST UPDATE REF: A. BISHKEK 1551 ¶B. BISHKEK 1548 ¶C. BISHKEK 1537 ¶D. STATE 180495 BISHKEK 00001554 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In Parliament on November 3, Prime Minister Kulov said that the government had received a taped conversation of opposition leaders planning to seize government buildings and regional administrations. State Secretary Madumarov claimed the tape "made obvious" that SIPDIS there was foreign government involvement (and large sums of money) in the demonstration. The tape was played in Parliament, and Speaker of Parliament Sultanov then said that experts should evaluate whether the tape is authentic. Several opposition figures denied that they intended to overthrow the government. The MFA distributed a transcript of the tape to the diplomatic corps, and the transcript and an mp3 file were posted to the Internet. ¶2. (C) The opposition protest continued through the night of November 2-3, with approximately 500 protesters spending the night in tents on the central Ala-too Square. The crowd grew to more than 1000 in the morning. At 1300 local, approximately 600-700 protesters left the square and marched to City Hall, where they demanded that the mayor resign. From there, the protesters marched to the state-owned KTR television studios, and a group of opposition leaders met with KTR officials to demand airtime in the evening, in part to explain the tape. KTR will reportedly give the opposition airtime in the evening. ¶3. (C) At 1500, the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs described the situation as "pretty quiet." He had no idea how much longer the protest would continue, but he assured the Ambassador that the police would take no harsh measures. In the late afternoon, demonstrators peacefully occupied the administrative building in an eastern Bishkek suburb, and there was a small demonstration in Talas. As of 1700, the crowd in Ala-too Square had grown to approximately 2000, with an increased number of militia and National Guard troops deployed around the White House. ¶4. (C) The Presidential Administration confirmed to the Ambassador that President Bakiyev would present his draft of a new constitution to the Parliament on November 6. The Deputy Head of the Administration dismissed Madumarov's charges of foreign involvement in the protest. END SUMMARY. Televised Debate on November 2 -------------- ¶5. (SBU) At 2100 November 2 following the first day of the protest on Ala-too Square, state-owned KTR broadcast a live debate/discussion with Prime Minister Kulov, State Secretary Madumarov, and MPs Azimbek Beknazarov, Kanybek Imanaliyev, Sultan Urmanayev, and Isa Omurkulov. Beknazarov was harshly critical of the government. Kulov said that the constitution could not be reformed in one day, and that he had no intention of resigning. He also asked people not to participate in any counter-demonstrations. Opposition Tape Played in Parliament -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In the morning of November 3, Prime Minister Kulov appeared in Parliament to say that overnight the government had received a tape recording (diskette) of opposition leaders plotting to overthrow the government by seizing particular buildings and regional administrations. The tape was played in Parliament, and Speaker of Parliament Sultanov said that experts should determine its authenticity. State Secretary Madumarov said the recording revealed precise plans SIPDIS BISHKEK 00001554 002.2 OF 003 and timings for seizures of government buildings, and he claimed it was "obvious" that some foreign states participated in this "attempt at destabilization." Civil society activist and demonstration participant Edil Baisalov (purportedly on the tape) charged that the tape was a fake, and MP Bolotbek Sherniyazov (also purportedly on the tape) said that the opposition had no plans to overthrow the government. ¶7. (C) At 1230, the MFA convoked the diplomatic corps to provide an update of the situation and to hand out a transcript of the tape (Note: the transcript was scanned and emailed to SCA/CEN). Responding to a question from the Ambassador, First Deputy Foreign Minister Taalay Kydyrov said the MFA had no information regarding foreign government support for the demonstration. (Comment: A number of diplomats believe the release of the transcript by the MFA is a way for the GOKG to lay out the justification for a use of force should that become necessary. Ambassador reached MVD Deputy Suvanaliyev and Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sadyrkulov to repeat our concern about the situation and that all sides should act non-violently and in accordance with the constitution. The Ambassador will see the Foreign Minister and repeat the same message at 1700 November 3. End comment.) ¶8. (SBU) The tape purports to be a recording of opposition leaders planning to seize government buildings, take over regional administrations, and block roads around the country. The quality of the tape, as played in Parliament and as heard over the Internet, is very poor. According to the transcript, the following individuals are on the tape: NGO leader Asiya Sasykbaeva, Edil Baisalov, Almaz Atambaeyev, MP Omurbek Tekebayev, MP Melis Eshimkanov, MP Bolotbek Sherniyazov, MP Temir Sariyev, MP Kanybek Imanaliyev, MP Kabay Karabekov, former Ambassador Roza Otunbayeva, Adilet Legal Clinic director Cholpon Jakupova, Rakhan Irsaliyev, and three unidentified persons. ¶9. (C) SNB Chair Maj. Gen. Murat Sutalinov denied that the SNB had anything to do with obtaining the tape; he said that a For Reforms member had delivered it to the government. Presidential Chief of Staff Myktybek Abdyldayev reportedly told the crowd of protesters at KTR (see paragraph 11) that Prime Minister Kulov had approved the wiretapping of the opposition leaders. Mid-afternoon on November 3, Prime Minister Kulov's press officer contacted the Embassy, trying to track down a rumor that international organizations had copies of the transcript before the Prime Minister revealed the tape in Parliament in the morning, and worried Kulov may have been set up with a fake. We replied that we did not have the transcript ahead of time. Rally Continues Overnight -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In the evening of November 2, two large truckloads of food were delivered to the protesters on Ala-too Square. Following dinner, the crowd dissipated. Approximately 500 opposition protesters remained on the square overnight, staying in approximately 60 small tents, 40 medium-sized tents, and four yurts set up on the south side of the square. In the morning of November 3, the crowd grew to approximately 1000 demonstrators (and numerous onlookers). Law enforcement personnel, numbering in the hundreds, remained in the vicinity of the square throughout the morning. Opposition to Get Airtime -------------- ¶11. (C) At 1300 local November 3, approximately 600-700 protesters left the square and marched to City Hall, where they demanded that the mayor resign. From there, the protesters marched to the state-owned KTR television studios, BISHKEK 00001554 003.2 OF 003 where they demanded to meet with KTR officials. Edil Baisalov told poloff that they wanted airtime in the evening to explain the tape. KTR has reportedly agreed to give the opposition airtime from 1900 to 2100 President to Present Constitution Draft November 6 -------------- -------------- ¶12. (C) Presidential Deputy Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov told the Ambassador November 3 that President Bakiyev would present a new draft of a constitution to Parliament on November 6. He said that opposition MPs had refused to participate in a small working group to finalize the draft, but the President was moving forward with the draft nevertheless. Sadyrkulov said that the tape of the opposition had been made on the evening of November 2, and he had no doubts as to its authenticity. He also dismissed Madumarov's contention that the tape indicated foreign involvement in the protest. Sadyrkulov said he thought the opposition would try to drag out the protest, but that people were losing interest. He said that despite the fact that the tape showed "huge provocation," the government was trying to resolve the situation without "creating winners and losers." Demonstration at Regional Offices -------------- ¶13. (SBU) In the afternoon of November 3, approximately 80-90 demonstrators took over the administrative offices of Alamudun Rayon, near Bishkek. The takeover was peaceful. As of 1600, the demonstrators were talking with the Akim (local administrator),and an Embassy patrol reported that there were approximately 25 MVD militia on site, but the situation was calm. As of 1700, we understand that the demonstrators have been removed from the building without incident. We also understand that there was a peaceful demonstration involving approximately 200 protesters in front of the administrative offices in Talas. Situation at 1700, November 3 -------------- ¶14. (SBU) As of 1700, the crowd was growing again on Ala-too Square, with approximately 2000 demonstrators present. In addition, there was an increased number of militia present, and the National Guard had deployed around the White House. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) The protest has remained peaceful, but the situation remains unpredictable. Just as the protest appeared to be slowing down, there was the demonstration in Talas, the peaceful seizure of an administrative building near Bishkek, and the crowd in Ala-too Square appears to be growing slightly. We expect that a small number of protesters will maintain their vigil in Ala-too Square overnight. The politics of the situation are heating up, with the latest charges that the opposition was planning to seize power. We have our doubts about the tape, but whether or not it is authentic, it has forced opposition leaders to divide their energies between defending themselves from the charges and pushing forward with the protest. The tape may also serve to divide the opposition. Edil Baisalov told us that some elements in the opposition did, in fact, envision occupying government buildings, while the majority of them were genuinely seeking reform. He claimed that MP Kubatbek Baibolov had met with the President earlier in the day to assure him that the majority of the opposition wanted to work toward compromise. YOVANOVITCH