KYRGYZ PRESIDENT OFFERS TO MEET OPPOSITION AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001532 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENT OFFERS TO MEET OPPOSITION AHEAD OF NOVEMBER 2 PROTEST REF: A. BISHKEK 1506 ¶B. BISHKEK 1423 BISHKEK 00001532 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Kyrgyz opposition is moving ahead with plans for a mass demonstration against the government on November 2, but there are some indications that a compromise may still be possible. President Bakiyev and all the members of his government appeared in Parliament October 30 in an apparent attempt to defuse the tension. Bakiyev disputed the opposition's claims and blamed the Parliament for the delay in constitutional reform, but he did offer to meet October 31 with a small group of opposition leaders. Prime Minister Kulov called for compromise, and offered to meet with civil society and political party representatives later on October ¶31. Following the meeting in Parliament, Ambassador met separately with For Reforms co-chairs Omurbek Tekebayev and Almaz Atambayev, who said that the President had offered "nothing new" in his address and the opposition would move forward with its plans for the November 2 rally. They expected protesters to come to Bishkek from all regions of the country. Atambayev said that the opposition was meeting daily with the MVD to settle any unresolved issues regarding demonstration logistics. We, along with like-minded missions (German, French, OSCE, Turkish),are delivering a consistent message to the government and opposition, calling upon them to resolve issues related to constitutional reform, and to act legally, constitutionally, and non-violently with respect to November 2. The EAC meeting October 30 is covered septel. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On October 30, President Bakiyev, along with the members of the government, appeared in Parliament to address the current political situation. Bakiyev focused on the opposition's main demands and aggressively refuted each of them. He said that constitutional reform was stalled because Parliament had delayed hearings on the previously submitted drafts (Note: hearings are scheduled to start November 1. End note.),and he said he would forward his own draft by November 20. Bakiyev defended the make-up of his government, defended his veto of the public television law, and denied allegations that his family members were involved in illegal businesses. ¶3. (SBU) Bakiyev suggested a meeting with four or five opposition leaders in the morning of October 31. He said that the government side would be limited to the President, Prime Minister Kulov, State Secretary Madumarov, and Chief of Staff Abdyldayev. He assured the residents of Bishkek and the surrounding region that the government would not let anyone "destabilize" the situation, and he reminded the MPs that their immunity did not extend to unconstitutional acts. ¶4. (SBU) In his remarks, Prime Minister Kulov called repeatedly for compromise. He suggested the situation could be resolved by moving forward with constitutional reform, and such reform should include election of a new parliament by party lists. The President should remain in office until 2010, the end of his current term. Kulov offered to meet with civil society and political party representatives later on October 31. ¶5. (C) Following the meeting in Parliament, Ambassador held separate meetings with For Reforms co-chairs Omurbek Tekebayev and Almaz Atambayev. Claiming that Bakiyev offered nothing new during his speech, both pointed out the President's aggressive stance towards the opposition. In a chance encounter with MP Sariyev, the Ambassador was again told that Bakiyev accomplished nothing during his presentation, except to provide more fodder for the opposition. Rather than address the opposition's demands directly, including the details of the constitutional reform BISHKEK 00001532 002.2 OF 002 process, Bakiyev simply blamed the opposition and its supporters of trying to destabilize the country. Adding that he would submit his version of the draft constitution by November 20, the President did little else to appease the opposition. According to Tekebayev, Atambayev and Sariyev, President Bakiyev will be continuing his discussions with parliamentarians the morning of October 31, despite his previously stated intention to meet with opposition leaders at 10:00 am. ¶6. (C) Both Tekebayev and Atambayev confirmed that the opposition would go forward with its plans for the demonstration, which would start at 2:00 pm on November 2. They expected that people from throughout the country would attend the demonstration. The Ambassador once again relayed our concern that the demonstration be peaceful, constitutional, and legal. Atambayev reassured the Ambassador that the opposition was meeting daily with the MVD to settle any unresolved issues regarding demonstration logistics and will have a number of mixed citizen-police patrols roving the area during the demonstration, watching for looters and mischievous behavior. ¶7. (C) Representative from several like-minded missions in Bishkek (U.S., German, French, Japanese, Turkish) met October 30 to discuss approaches to the government and opposition ahead of the November 2 demonstrations. The representatives agreed on the importance of delivering a consistent message, calling upon the government and opposition to resolve issues related to constitutional reform and find a solution that promotes human rights, rule of law, and democracy; urging respect for human rights in recognizing the opposition's right to assemble and freely express its opinion during the November 2 rally, and to show restraint in any reaction to the event; calling upon each side to make public statements for restraint; and calling upon the government and opposition to act legally, constitutionally, and non-violently. The German Ambassador said his staff had confirmed that the opposition was purchasing tents, food, and coats in preparation for staying on the square overnight. He added that PM Kulov had told him last week he was prepared to address the demonstrators. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) About the only thing that everyone agrees on is that the situation is unsettled and unpredictable, and that people remain worried that events could spin out of control. In Parliament today, President Bakiyev did not sound like a man ready to compromise, and the For Reforms leadership did not sound ready to have a meeting with the President to talk about compromise. Nevertheless, meetings tomorrow will offer some chance of finding a compromise before November 2. YOVANOVITCH