DAS FEIGENBAUM DISCUSSES ISSUES OF STABILITY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 001518 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: DAS FEIGENBAUM DISCUSSES ISSUES OF STABILITY IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN REF: A. BISHKEK 1506 ¶B. BISHKEK 1333 BISHKEK 00001518 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: DCM Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 19 and 20, SCA Deputy Assistant Secretary Evan Feigenbaum, together with Ambassador SIPDIS Yovanovitch, traveled to southern Kyrgyzstan to discuss issues of social and political stability, as well as the impending demonstration on November 2, with local government officials, international organization representatives, and NGOs. During the two-day trip to Osh, Jalalabad, and Karasuu, Embassy contacts expressed hope that Kyrgyzstan would be able to resolve its political and economic debates peacefully, but cautioned that poverty, a porous border with Uzbekistan, rising religious extremism, the lack of a truly independent media, and a distancing from the north were all issues that remained a concern for the country as a whole. Despite such concerns, most seemed optimistic about Kyrgyzstan's future and believed that nothing significant would happen during the planned demonstration on November 2. Several warned that relations with the government could worsen, however, if the Bakiyev administration continues to crack down on alleged extremists in the south and interferes in the activities of NGOs throughout the country. END SUMMARY. BORDER, SOCIAL PROGRAMS MORE IMPORTANT THAN NEW REVOLUTION -------------- --- ¶2. (C) In Jalalabad, Governor Iskender Aidaraliyev told DAS Feigenbaum and the Ambassador that although the south was "ripe for foreign investment" due to the "calm social and political climate," he was concerned about the long border Kyrgyzstan shares with Uzbekistan. Recognizing that U.S. border assistance programs have been active in Osh, Aidaraliyev said that more could be done in other oblasts, including Jalalabad, to secure the porous Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. (Note: After visiting the Dostuk border post in Osh (septel),DAS Feigenbaum was informed that the International Organization for Migration (IOM) plans to renovate, using U.S. assistance funds, at least one post in Jalalabad. End note.) ¶3. (C) When asked about possible unrest in the south connected to the opposition's November 2 rally in Bishkek (ref A),Aidaraliyev said that he was certain the opposition would not be able to garner the country-wide support needed to achieve their "revolutionary" aims. Aidaraliyev said that southerners were geared more towards effecting change from within the current system, rather than through consecutive revolutions. Citing the limited support the opposition received during the September 17 Kurultai (ref B), Aidaraliyev predicted that November 2 would also see equally limited participation by southern residents. Governor Aidaraliyev added that successive revolutions would only serve to destabilize the country. Aidaraliyev said he had been able to stay in office following the March 2005 events due to strong constituent support, and similarly the President should be able to stay in office unless he is voted out democratically after his five-year term. Aidaraliyev reasoned that forcibly removing him from the White House would damage not only Kyrgyzstan's development and stability, but also its image internationally. ¶4. (C) Separately, Osh Deputy Governor Kushbak Tezekbayev concurred with Aidaraliyev's analysis that nothing concrete would happen on November 2. He believed that the opposition seeks to divide the south from the north. Despite the fact that "For Reforms" (Za Reformi) co-Chair Omurbek Tekebayev is originally from the south, living in Bishkek for over twenty years has limited his credibility in the eyes of many southerners, according to Tezekbayev. Tezekbayev also BISHKEK 00001518 002.2 OF 004 speculated that the Kyrgyz people are "tired" of politics and would rather focus on other, more pressing, issues such as renovating schools and obtaining textbooks for each student. ¶5. (C) When asked about U.S.-Kyrgyz bilateral relations, as viewed from Osh and the south, as well as Kyrgyzstan's relations with its neighbors, Tezekbayev said that too much foreign investment had been concentrated in the north, and more should be done to improve the economic condition of southern Kyrgyzstan. As an example, Tezekbayev noted that trade relations with China have increased significantly, with China donating four hundred tractors in the past six months, in addition to building factories and supplying Kyrgyz markets with fruits and vegetables. Despite the praise given to China and Tezekbayev's intention to go to Beijing by the end of October to sign a trade agreement linking Osh with Urumchi and Kashgar, the Deputy Governor insisted, that China continues to sell inferior products to Kyrgyzstan, with the "good stuff" going to the United States. ¶6. (C) As for bilateral relations with the U.S., Tezekbayev supported the Manas Airbase and its contributions to the security of Kyrgyzstan and the region, but thought that Kyrgyzstan's relations with Russia should be strengthened as well. Claiming that Kyrgyzstan is the only democracy in the region, Tezekbayev used the fact that the current Governor of Osh, Jantoro Satybaldiyev, was a former opposition leader as an example of the many liberties that exist in Kyrgyzstan. As a comparison to other Central Asian states, Tezekbayev alluded to Uzbekistan's "ungrateful" attitude towards the U.S., by stating that "if it wasn't for U.S. assistance in Uzbekistan after 9/11, there would be no Uzbekistan today." DAS Feigenbaum noted that unlike our comparatively consistent relationship with Kyrgyzstan, U.S. relations with Tashkent have been characterized by sharp swings up and down. ISLAMIC LEADERS CONTENT, FOR NOW -------------- ¶7. (C) While pleased that the relationship between the Islamic community and the state seems comparatively smooth and stable, Suyun Kaary, Kazy of Osh Oblast, cautioned that growing Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) adherence could damage relations as the possibility of heavy-handed government crackdowns against alleged HT members continues. Citing the inadequate education of Imams and their constituents on how best to dissuade potential HT and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) adherents, Kaary said that religious leaders and followers alike would benefit from more exchanges with the West, as well as an increase in Kyrgyz student enrollments at Islamic universities abroad. Kaary estimated that at least 1000 Kyrgyz students are studying in Egypt, but could not speculate on the number of students attending religious schools in Pakistan. ¶8. (C) Kaary cited economic hardships as a source of discontent for many in the south. Because of those hardships, said Kaary, there are those who believe they may be able to benefit from the foreign assistance that is perceived to be funding extremist groups within Kyrgyzstan. When asked if Kaary knew where the money was coming from, he simply shrugged his shoulders and replied, in Arabic, that only God knew. Despite the possibility that extremist views may be filtering into Kyrgyzstan from abroad, Kaary said that Kyrgyzstan must manage its problems with HT, IMU and non-Muslim extremist religious groups without closing its borders. Rather, noted Kaary, Kyrgyzstan should deal with extremists through political means, by the use of dialogues and face-to-face interaction. Kaary said that the late Imam Muhammadrafik Kamalov, killed on August 6 possibly because of his alleged ties to HT, had been respected by religious and community leaders throughout the region because of his commitment to dialogue. He had known Kamalov and respected BISHKEK 00001518 003.2 OF 004 him as a person, but did not consider it appropriate to comment on political allegations against the dead. In light of these concerns, Kaary cautioned that there were issues in the south that deserved people's attention. Kaary expressed his gratitude to DAS Feigenbaum and the Ambassador for visiting the south, inviting a large number of southerners to participate in International Visitor (IV) programs, and hoped that such exchanges would continue and expand. IOs, NGOs: WORKING PRODUCTIVELY, FOR NOW -------------- ¶9. (C) During an informal dinner with UNHCR and OSCE representatives, discussion turned to Kyrgyzstan's failing refugee regime and the Kyrgyz Government's (GOKG) possible move to restrict the activities of international organizations and NGOs working in Kyrgyzstan, to include a possible reevaluation of OSCE's mandate. As the Head of UNHCR's Field Office Mulusew Mamo explained, the GOKG has worked cooperatively to help resettle hundreds of Uzbek asylum seekers to third countries, but has not been willing to take additional steps to grant refugee status to Uzbek nationals. Mamo added that resettlement is usually a last resort for UNHCR and, therefore, hoped that their work could be reoriented to concentrate more upon refugee determination and assistance within Kyrgyzstan. Immediately granting asylum-seeker status in order to initiate the resettlement process is not a system, according to Mamo, that UNHCR believes would be beneficial for the long-term stability of Kyrgyzstan's refugee regime. Extraditions and disappearances of Uzbek nationals seeking refuge in Kyrgyzstan is also a concern, said Mamo, in that such events call into question the safety of those asylum-seekers remaining in Kyrgyzstan. With no concrete assurances provided by the GOKG, Mamo speculated that the Kyrgyz would continue working with the Uzbek security services to set an example to other Uzbek citizens, especially civil society activists, thinking about crossing the border into Kyrgyzstan. ¶10. (C) OSCE representatives Jerome Bouyjou and Amanda Wooden expressed concern regarding the GOKG's heavy-handed crackdowns against alleged religious extremists in the south and argued that the national government may be trying to increase its control in southern Kyrgyzstan. Bouyjou said that desire for control might extend to OSCE's activities. Bouyjou noted that in a meeting in Osh earlier in the day, FM Jekshenkulov had asked pointed questions about the OSCE's overall mandate in the Kyrgyz Republic, suggesting that the Foreign Ministry may be trying to sideline the activities of international organizations and NGOs working throughout Kyrgyzstan. Bouyjou and Wooden also said that the GOKG had been contacting local NGOs asking about their sources of funding as well as the nature of their activities. ¶11. (C) In a separate lunch meeting, Mercy Corps representatives said they had a cooperative working relationship with local government and that local inhabitants appreciated the assistance provided by international organizations and NGOs. Mercy Corps representative, Claire Sneed, explained that the group has worked with local government officials on a variety of issues, including rule of law in business transactions, land allocation, corruption, and access to water for farmers. Given the cooperative manner in which southerners have worked with NGOs and local government offices, the Mercy Corps representatives were surprised at reports that people in Bishkek were discussing the possibility of another revolution. Sneed said that southerners generally felt no connection to President Bakiyev despite his southern roots, but they were tired of the political upheavals in the north. According to Sneed and her colleagues, southerners preferred to concentrate more on other issues, such as education and the increased use of narcotics by school-aged children. BISHKEK 00001518 004.4 OF 004 SOUTHERN VOICES MUTED BY LACK OF INDEPENDENT MEDIA -------------- -------------- ¶12. (C) Maksuda Aitiyeva, Director of the Osh Media Resource Center, together with five IV Alumni journalists, noted that people in the south depended on GOKG and NGO assistance to improve the situation. Aitiyeva said that a lack of funds limited local media's voice, and dependence on government subsidies called into question media independence. With an inadequate amount of revenue generated through advertisements, and stiff commercial competition from Russian media outlets, the condition of mass media in Kyrgyzstan could worsen, said Aitiyeva, in the years to come -- especially if the youth remain uninterested in journalism, due to lack of professional training and insufficient wages. Representatives from online news site Ferghana.ru, who had invited themselves to the meeting, added that one of the only ways Kyrgyz media could genuinely stay independent would be to publish their reports on the web. Generally cheaper and more flexible, online news sites could be a trend that others should follow, according to Alisher Saipov, local Chief Editor of Ferghana.ru and Voice of America (VOA) stringer. This will especially be the case, said Saipov, as more people gain access to the Internet either at home or by visiting the growing number of Internet cafes spread out across the country. COMMENT: ALL IS RELATIVELY CALM, FOR NOW -------------- ¶13. (C) By and large, interlocutors during this visit to the south were a lot less alarmist about the political situation in Kyrgyzstan than those in the north. Recognizing that more could be done to improve Kyrgyzstan's economic and political standing, many, nevertheless, believed that cooperative solutions could be realized with the current government. Despite worrying signs that the government may be trying to meddle in the affairs of international organizations and NGOs operating throughout the country, there was a sense of calm, confidence, and optimism felt and expressed within each of the meetings in Osh, Jalalabad, and Karasuu. In the run up to the planned opposition demonstrations in Bishkek on November 2, Embassy will watch closely to see if that quiet confidence seeps northward, or if the opposition will manage to generate more support for their cause in Kyrgyzstan's southern regions. END COMMENT. ¶14. (U) DAS Feigenbaum has cleared this cable. YOVANOVITCH