KYRGYZSTAN OPPOSITION RALLY LESS THAN EXPECTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001333 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN OPPOSITION RALLY LESS THAN EXPECTED REF: A. BISHKEK 1316 ¶B. BISHKEK 796 ¶C. BISHKEK 626 BISHKEK 00001333 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On September 17 in the southern Aksy District, Kyrgyzstan's opposition staged a "Kurultai," or "people's congress," bringing together representatives from various political parties, NGO groups, and the government. A crowd of approximately 1500 heard numerous speeches, most of which were critical of the government, and adopted a seven-point resolution demanding, among other things, immediate constitutional reform, an end to political persecution, and the removal of President Bakiyev's relatives from government positions. The event broke no new ground, and the attendance was below that at previous Kurultais. Following the recent uproar over the Tekebayev incident (Ref A),observers had expected more from the rally. Nevertheless, event organizer MP Azimbek Beknazarov promised to hold a similar meeting in Bishkek at the end of October. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On September 17, Kyrgyzstan's political opposition staged a "Kurultai," or "people's congress," in the southern Aksy District at the same site where a 2002 mass protest resulted in the deaths of six protesters following a clash with authorities. Organized by opposition MP Azimbek Beknazarov (whose arrest had triggered the 2002 protest),the Kurultai went off peacefully, with most of the crowd sitting on a hillside during speeches made from the back of a truck. Pro-opposition MPs Omurbek Tekebayev, Melis Eshimkanov, and Bolotbek Sherniyazov, as well as NGO leaders and activists, attended the rally. Interestingly, Beknazarov's fellow Asaba Party co-chair, Roza Otunbayeva, did not attend, and surprisingly few pro-opposition MPs made the trip to Aksy. From the government side, State Secretary Adakham Madumarov, Human Rights Commission Chair Tursunbek Akhunov, Security Council Secretary Miroslav Niyazov (currently on vacation -- see Ref A) and Jalalabad Governor Iskender Aidaraliyev participated. Embassy observers estimated the crowd at 1500, including numerous media representatives and other observers. ¶3. (SBU) The Kurultai started slowly, with a number of local representatives speaking, but the mood intensified throughout the day. A number of speakers were sharply critical of the government, saying they wanted "real reforms." Madumarov and Akhunov both spoke to defend the government record, arguing that President Bakiyev was not to blame for recent problems, such as the apparent set-up of Tekebayev (Ref A),and that more time was needed to move forward with reforms. Beknazarov argued strongly against their points, stirring up the crowd as he spoke. ¶4. (U) The Kurultai adopted a resolution making seven demands on the government: --Re-investigate the 2002 shootings in Aksy and identify and punish those officials responsible; --Proceed with constitutional reform immediately; --Act on the demands made at the April and May 2006 rallies in Bishkek (see Refs B and C); --Stop political persecutions and investigate fully the Tekebayev incident ("Matryoshkagate"); --Remove all relatives of President Bakiyev from their positions in government; --Make state radio into public radio; --Execute these demands by the end of October, or face the BISHKEK 00001333 002.2 OF 002 removal of the Bakiyev-Kulov "tandem" from power. ¶5. (U) Beknazarov said that this meeting had been just the first stage in the process and that there would be another rally in Bishkek at the end of October, following Ramadan. Following the Kurultai, most of the crowd proceeded to the tea houses in nearby Kerben to continue their discussions. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Following the uproar this past week in Parliament and in the media over the Tekebayev incident, many observers expected Beknazarov's Kurultai to be a decisive event for Kyrgyzstan's opposition. The long-promised Kurultai, however, apparently failed to capture the momentum coming from the scandal, as turnout was lower than expected (or than at previous such meetings) and some prominent opposition figures stayed away. Perhaps people, even if disappointed in the government, are tired of regular rallies or Kurultais that are not likely to produce tangible results. This meeting, in fact, produced little new in terms of issues or demands, and it did not really address current concerns such as the government's security crackdown in the south. It was mildly ironic that Beknazarov would demand a re-investigation of the 2002 Aksy shootings, as he could have done so himself when he was Procurator General in 2005. Regarding some of the other demands, the special Parliamentary commission is continuing its investigation of the Tekebayev incident, and is expected to announce some findings this week; a separate government commission is also investigating. And in Parliament September 14, President Bakiyev said that constitutional reform would move forward with hearings in parliament on the draft constitutions, though the timing -- and process -- for this was not clear. In any event, with Parliament and the opposition energized by the Tekebayev incident, the political situation in Bishkek remains unsettled. END COMMENT. YOVANOVITCH