THE MARCH 26 GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS: GOOD NEWS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000846 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2021 TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: THE MARCH 26 GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS: GOOD NEWS FOR BERLIN Classified By: Political Counselor John Bauman. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d ¶1. (C) The March 26 election in three German states had the effect of reinforcing the national standing of Christian (CDU) and Social (SPD) Democrats, partners in the Berlin's "Grand Coalition." Though turnout was low, there are few signs that alienation was the reason, as protest parties of right and left did not do well in any state. The outcome, therefore, appears to be a vote of confidence and satisfaction. With these elections safely behind it, the government is now expected to pursue actively a program of socio-economic reform. Septels from Frankfurt and Leipzig report in detail on the election outcome. ¶2. (C) With both partners in the grand coalition able to point to successes, the tone between them should improve. Notably, tensions within the SPD between those who believe the SPD will succeed in the long term by working to make the coalition a success and those who would focus more on the SPD's policy preferences should ease. ¶3. (U) The government's majority has also been strengthened in the Bundesrat. The FDP will lose its control over Saxony-Anhalt's four votes and may lose control over the four from Rhineland-Palatinate as well. Whether it loses four or eight, the FDP will no longer by itself control the one-third of votes needed to form a blocking minority on constitutional questions. However, even if all eight votes shift to the government, it will still be two votes short of two-thirds of the total (i.e., it will control 44 of 46 needed votes out of the Bunderat total of 69). Rather, the Left Party.PDS could, like the FDP, become a factor in Bundesrat decisions on constitutional issues (such as the recently-submitted federalism reform package). ¶4. (C) The smaller parties' weakness in these elections reflects the public preference (pre-dating the establishment of the grand coalition in Berlin) for coalitions of the CDU and SPD. This broad public preference and the specific outcome of the March 26 elections suggests at least a brief pause in the increasing diversification of the German political scene. TIMKEN JR