DEMARCHE TO GERMAN MFA ON IRANIAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 003412 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/IR, LONDON FOR GAYLE, BAKU FOR HAUGEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 TAGS: PREL PHUM GM IR SUBJECT: DEMARCHE TO GERMAN MFA ON IRANIAN ELECTIONS REF: STATE 192971 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor John A. Bauman for reasons 1.4(b)/(d) ¶1. (C) Poloff presented reftel demarche to Sabine Sparwasser, MFA Office Director for Middle East and Maghreb Affairs, on December 1. MFA Iran Desk Officer Deike Potzel also attended. Sparwasser stated that she expects EU coordination on any public statement regarding the upcoming Iranian elections. She added that she would return to us with any more details. ¶2. (C) Sparwasser then turned to the issue of information sharing, which she characterized as "very positive" and "important", given that the U.S. does not have a presence on the ground in Tehran. Potzel noted that recent reporting from the German Embassy in Tehran has emphasized that within internal Iranian political discussion, the municipal elections are considered more important than the Assembly of Experts election. ¶3. (C) Sparwasser continued that the Assembly of Experts is not facing a decisive moment of change, noting she does not expect a new Supreme Leader to be elected during its term. However, if reformers are able to prevail in city elections, this would be an indication of voter desire for change. Such a result could help predict the mood of Iranian voters as the 2008 parliamentary elections near. Potzel added that the vetting standards applied to Assembly of Experts candidates was much more strict than that of municipal election candidates; thus, reformers may stand a better chance for success in the local elections. Potzel added that German embassy reporting indicates that reform-oriented candidates were successful in passing vetting procedures in Tehran but had experienced more problems outside the capital. TIMKEN JR