SPD CALLS FOR MORE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 BERLIN 001781 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR T, P, ISN, EUR/PRA, EUR/RPM, AND EUR/AGS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2026 TAGS: PARM KNNP IAEA NATO PGOV GM SUBJECT: SPD CALLS FOR MORE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT REF: A. 05 BERLIN 1665 ¶B. 05 BERLIN 475 Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor Michael B. Martin; r easons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Summary: On June 26 the Social Democratic party (SPD) held a conference under the rubric: "Peace through Disarmament: International Law and Nuclear Nonproliferation." FM Steinmeier (SPD) and IAEA DG ElBaradei were the keynote speakers. During the conference, Steinmeier and other SPD leaders emphasized that nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation are key elements of the SPD's long-standing "peace policy." SPD party Chairman Beck signaled that the SPD intends to push to put nuclear disarmament on the agendas of Germany's EU and G8 presidencies in 2007. Terming the May 2005 NPT Review Conference (RevCon) a "failure", Steinmeier said that nuclear disarmament should be given a new impulse based on the outcome of the 2000 NPT RevCon. He and ElBaradei also called on the nuclear weapon states (NWS) to further reduce their nuclear arsenals. ElBaradei asserted that nuclear disarmament is the "Siamese twin of nuclear nonproliferation", and criticized the fact that NWS and NATO "till have doctrines of nuclear deterrence." Steimeier reiterated his public calls on Iran to takea constructive approach to the P5 Germany ofer. He also said that the India-U.S. agreement n civil nuclear cooperation was the "right way" o proceed, but added that "it would be a good sinal" if India also would adhere to the Comprehensiv Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and a moratorium on the roduction of weapons-grade fissile material. En Summary. -------------- --- SPD SETTING ITS SIGHTS ON EU AND G8 PRESIDENCIES -------------- --- ¶2. (U) On June 26 the Social Democratic party (SPD) held a conference under the rubric: "Peace through Disarmament: International Law and Nuclear Nonproliferation." FM Steinmeier (SPD) and IAEA DG ElBaradei were the keynote speakers, following an introduction by SPD party Chairman Kurt Beck. In introducing the subject, Beck emphasized that nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation are key elements of the SPD's long-standing "peace policy" of conflict prevention and resolution. He signaled that the SPD intends to push to put nuclear disarmament on the agendas of Germany's EU and G8 presidencies in 2007, saying that the upcoming, partially-overlapping EU and G8 presidencies offer Germany a rare opportunity in this regard. Separately, MP Rolf Muetzenich, spokesman for disarmament and nonproliferation affairs of the SPD caucus, announced that the SPD is working on a catalog of proposals to be included in the SPD's next party "basic program", which, according to Embassy contacts, will be completed in draft form by the end of 2006 and presented to the SPD party board in January 2007. -------------- CALL FOR "REVIVAL" OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT -------------- ¶3. (U) Beck said the SPD would hold firm to its appeal to the nuclear weapons states to proceed with long-term, and eventually total, nuclear disarmament. FM Steinmeier made similar comments, assessing that the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) is faced with "critical erosion", noting the Conference on Disarmament (CD) had not produced any new agreements in years, and citing Hans Blix's recent report to the UN in saying, "it's time for a revival" of nuclear disarmament. Terming the May 2005 NPT Review Conference (RevCon) a "failure", Steinmeier presented the NPT as a fundamental "deal" in which the nuclear weapons states (NWS) agreed to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for non-NWS agreeing not to seek nuclear weapons. He said that BERLIN 00001781 002 OF 005 nuclear disarmament should be given a new impulse, the basis of which should be the outcome of the 2000 NPT RevCon. Steinmeier also said that he would like to see the NWS continue with the incremental disarmament of their strategic and sub-strategic arsenals, noting in particular the United States and Russia. He prefaced his comments by saying that, in order to "get the disarmament effort back on track," one needs to be prepared to think in the long-term, "over years." -------------- -------------- ELBARADEI CRITICAL OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE DOCTRINE -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) IAEA DG ElBaradei said that the abolition of nuclear weapons was a goal of the NPT -- "not an immediate one, but a progressive one." Citing the 1996 International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision, he said that NWS are obligated not just to negotiate on nuclear disarmament, but to reach concrete results. ElBaradei asserted that nuclear disarmament is the "Siamese twin of nuclear nonproliferation." He criticized the fact that NWS and NATO "still have doctrines of nuclear deterrence", arguing that it is contradictory for some states to maintain that nuclear weapons are essential to their security while telling other states they should not have them. ElBaradei also claimed that the United States and Russia are still targeting each other in the same way they did as during the Cold War and said that there still are 27,000 nuclear warheads in NWS arsenals. He welcomed the Moscow Treaty as "good start", but said that he would prefer to see the treaty subject to verification, extended indefinitely, and applied to weapons stockpiles. ElBaradei also called for all states to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),remarking that, to bring the treaty into force, it would be necessary to convince the U.S. Administration and Congress to alter U.S. policy on the treaty. -------------- -------------- STEINMEIER CALLS FOR CLOSING THE "HOLES" IN THE NPT -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) Steinmeier predicted that, if the international community fails successfully to respond to the nuclear challenges posed by Iran and the DPRK, we will face a new nuclear arms race in the Northeast Asia and the Middle East. Moreover, the spread of nuclear weapons technology would mean that terrorists would have easier access to nuclear weapons and materials. Against this backdrop, Steinmeier argued for the need to "close the holes" in the nuclear nonproliferation regime, suggesting that the multilateralization of sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle could be one useful element. He also proposed that nuclear nonproliferation verification could be strengthened by a more routine use of challenge inspections. Finally, Steinmeier said that all states should implement nationally their multilateral commitments to nuclear nonproliferation, mentioning specifically national obligations under UNSCR 1540. -------------- -------------- ELBARADEI FOR AP, MULTILAT FUEL CYCLE, "VERIFIABLE" FMCT -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) ElBaradei made strong pitches for the universalization of the Additional Protocol (AP) and for putting sensitive portions of the nuclear fuel cycle under multilateral regional or international control. Responding to a question as to whether the NPT needed to be reformed, ElBaradei argued that he thought it probably more important to implement the NPT, rather than to try to reform it. He added that the NPT could be further strengthened by complementing it with such things as the AP and various options for putting the sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle under multilateral control, for example. ElBaradei argued that it would be BERLIN 00001781 003 OF 005 adequately, mentioning specifically the DPRK, which he bleakly assessed "had left the NPT without the UNSC even discussing it." -------------- -------------- STEINMEIER CALLS ON TEHRAN TO ACCEPT P5 GERMANY PROPOSAL -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) Early in his remarks Beck underlined that the SPD does not want to see a nuclear armed Iran -- one of the few applause lines of the conference. Steinmeier said that no one seeks to deny Iran access to peaceful nuclear energy technology. However, he added, "anyone who so flagrantly violates his treaty obligations for 18 years" -- i.e., Iran -- needs to take steps to restore the deficit of confidence that his actions have created. Steinmeier highlighted that the Iran/nuclear problem involves not only the authority of the NPT; also at stake is preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and protecting Israel from an existential threat. Briefly noting his June 24 meeting in Berlin with Iranian FM Mottaki, Steinmeier reiterated his public calls on Iran to take a constructive approach to the P5 Germany offer. ¶8. (U) ElBaradei said that the IAEA is still evaluating whether Iran's nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, though he mentioned Iran along with countries that had shown "worrying signals". ElBaradei argued that Iran has security concerns, but that there is concern among the other countries in the Middle East that Iran is seeking to increase its power in order to project its influence throughout the region. ElBaradei concluded that there are numerous regional security issues that need to be addressed in the Middle East, but that the international community first needs to clarify the nature of the Iranian program. -------------- STEINMEIER SAYS DEAL WITH INDIA "RIGHT WAY" -------------- ¶9. (U) Steinmeier said that Germany would like to see India, Pakistan, and Israel join the NPT, but acknowledged that it is unrealistic to believe that will be achievable in the short-term. Therefore, he concluded, the international community should find ways to bring the three states closer to the nuclear nonproliferation regime. Focusing on India, Steinmeier said that the U.S.-India agreement, understood as a "deal to exchange energy technology assistance for binding obligations" of the nuclear nonproliferation regime, is the "right way" to proceed. He added that "it would be a good signal," if India also would adhere to the CTBT, declare a moratorium on the production of fissile material for weapons purposes, and accept obligations to limit and ultimately dismantle its nuclear weapons program. According to Steinmeier, all of these ideas are under discussion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). -------------- SA/LW: "TRUE WMD" -------------- BERLIN 00001781 004 OF 005 ¶10. (U) While the conference was dedicated to nuclear disarmament/nonproliferation issues, Steinmeier devoted some of his time to the issue of small arms and light weapons SA/LW. Noting the ongoing review conference on the UN's SA/LW program, he called SA/LW the "true WMD", given the large number of victims of small arms worldwide in conflicts each year. He said that the international community should devote more effort to controlling SA/LW transfers and brokering. -------------- STEINMEIER MAKES PLEA FOR A/CFE -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Turning briefly to the subject of "European arms control", Steinmeier said that "the failure of the third CFE RevCon endangers the core element of European security architecture." After a brief review of the history of the CFE and the Adapted CFE (A/CFE),he called on all state parties "to meet their responsibilities and together to do everything necessary to allow the A/CFE to come into force as soon as possible." (Note: Steinmeier did not specifically mention Russia's Istanbul Commitments. End Note) In this context Steinmeier also argued that a "breakdown" of European arms control would have consequences far beyond Europe, because "Europe serves as a model worldwide for the creation of security and stability." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) The SPD's main motivation in holding this conference was to raise its profile -- and that of FM Steinmeier -- on an issue it considers one of its core competencies. Given Christian Democratic (CDU) Chancellor Merkel's strong performance on foreign policy issues, the SPD has struggled to keep Steinmeier from being completely upstaged. In light of this, it was no surprise that the conference was sprinkled with copious references to Willy Brandt (the last SPD Foreign Minister),conflict prevention, and "Ostpolitik"-style engagement (with Egon Bahr looking on approvingly from the front row). The thus far limited press echo suggests the SPD may have miscalculated somewhat. German public fixation with the ongoing World Cup may have something to do with that. While nonproliferation elements were woven throughout the conference discourse, the emphasis was on nuclear disarmament, a subject that remains broadly popular in German public opinion and one that easily can gain traction on short notice in Germany, depending on national and international developments. The central argument that the NPT was a "grand bargain" trading nuclear nonproliferation for nuclear disarmament has been an particularly unhelpful but stubbornly recurring theme in German foreign policy (reftel B). Although Embassy and senior USG delegations have made numerous private and public efforts to get out our message, many German MFA officials, parliamentarians, and think tank experts persist in being dismissive of the U.S. record on NPT Article VI. ¶13. (C) Though Steinmeier and Beck made only general appeals for more action on nuclear disarmament, the question remains how the SPD will seek to pursue this agenda in concrete terms. SPD leaders several times during the conference underlined that the SPD intends to take a pragmatic approach, and is not being "naive" or overly idealistic. Nevertheless, they have already encountered some resistance from the CDU-led MOD, at least on procedural grounds. Following the conference, the MOD spokesman criticized Beck for announcing that the SPD intended to place nuclear disarmament on the agendas of Germany's EU and G8 presidencies, arguing that any such decisions should first be discussed with the CDU, the BERLIN 00001781 005 OF 005 SPD's coalition partner. SPD representatives no doubt will point out that the CDU-SPD coalition agreement calls for making arms control and disarmament a "central concern" of the government and for the long-term goal of the elimination of all WMD. Moreover, German Social Democratic EP Martin Schulz made clear during the conference that he intends to work within the European Parliament to mobilize social democrats from across Europe to support this agenda. ¶14. (S/NF) While some individual SPD members (including Beck in May 2005) have in various ways called for the near-term elimination of NATO nuclear weapons, including the withdrawal of U.S. non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) allegedly stationed in Germany, the SPD party as a whole thus far has resisted this politically popular temptation (as has the CDU, which remains the most "on side" party in Germany on this issue). Meanwhile, the opposition Greens, Free Democrats, and Left-wing parties all have called for the immediate withdrawal of U.S. NSNW allegedly stationed in Germany (reftel A). Moreover, following the SPD conference, the Green party caucus put out a press release taunting the Social Democrats, claiming the SPD held the conference only to provide cover for itself as it moves to embrace the U.S.-India nuclear deal. The Green caucus press release further argued that, if the SPD were truly serious about nuclear disarmament, it would call for the elimination of NATO nuclear weapons. This issue is likely to continue to draw scrutiny and attention as the SPD searches for ways to fill its disarmament agenda with substance. TIMKEN