BELIZE: 30 DAYS OUT - NATIONAL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS BELIZE 000105 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - JASON MACK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BH SUBJECT: BELIZE: 30 DAYS OUT - NATIONAL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS REF: A) BELIZE 0020; B) 05 BELIZE 1027; C) 05 BELIZE 898 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. In the run up to country-wide municipal elections on March 1, neither of the major political parties appears to have a clear hold on what they consider to be their main constituencies. The Belize City mayoral race looks to be a dead heat. Recent unseasonable heavy rains and road erosion, intractable unemployment, a series of financial scandals, and an alarming crime wave all have taken a toll on public confidence in government. If the ruling People's United Party (PUP) has a good showing, then Prime Minister Said Musa may conclude that his government still retains a sufficient mandate of the people, and could call early national elections; conversely, poor results for the PUP may lead him to delay national elections, which need not be held until March, 2008. If the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) does not do well, its leader, Dean Barrow, could lose his position. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) With only 30 days until the March 1 nationwide municipal elections, the parties have stepped up their door- to-door and media activity. The past six months of nominations and campaigning had been relatively quiet, but in recent weeks the political atmosphere has become more intense (REF A). The increasingly influential Association of Concerned Belizeans (ACB) has launched a "don't sell your vote" campaign designed to abate the easy influence techniques that the parties are rumored to have used in the past (e.g., giving away of "blue notes" - Bz$100 notes). -------------- WHAT'S AT STAKE? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) If the United Democratic Party (UDP) does not have a good showing on March 1, the party's leader, Dean Barrow, could lose his position. If the ruling People's United Party (PUP) has a good showing, then Prime Minister Said Musa may conclude that his government still retains a sufficient mandate of the people, and could call early national elections; conversely, poor results for the PUP may lead him to delay national elections, which need not be held until March, 2008. -------------- THE FOCI OF THE CAMPAIGNS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The PUP's campaign has played upon the residual personal popularity of PM Musa, while the UDP has oriented its national campaign around Belize City Mayoral Candidate Zenaida Moya (REF A),the middle class, and the working poor. The UDP has concentrated most of its limited resources on Moya's race, but inside sources report that, even here, spending has been constrained. Some speculate that Barrow is conserving party funds for the possibility of early national elections. ¶6. (SBU) The single-city party - Vision Inspired by the People (VIP) (REF B),which aspires to win the mayorship of Belmopan, has generated considerable national attention. The two independent newspapers, Amandala and Reporter, have praised the new party's motivation and prospects. Separately, some other mayoral candidates have chosen to run independently, possibly reflecting widespread disenchantment with both the PUP and UDP. -------------- -------------- ANALYSIS & CONCLUSION: A WEARY ELECTORATE, DISTRUSTFUL OF BOTH MAJOR PARTIES -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The ruling PUP looks to be in trouble, as recent unseasonable heavy rains and road erosion, as well as financial scandals and an alarming crime wave, have dented public confidence in government. The PUP has sought to shore up its popularity in other ways, such as the recent write off of Development Finance Corporation loans (REF C). Informal polling of a cross-section of voters in Belize City reveals that the mayoral race is a dead heat, and that neither the UDP nor the PUP have clear holds on what they consider to be their main constituencies. DIETER