MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: INDEPENDENCE, ACCORDING TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000825 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE BRUSSELS PLEASE PASS TO EUR/DAS DICARLO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: INDEPENDENCE, ACCORDING TO OFFICIAL "PRELIMINARY" RETURNS BELGRADE 00000825 001.2 OF 002 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY Ref: Belgrade 805 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Republic Referendum Commission announced at 8:30 a.m. Monday May 23, the official preliminary results in the May 21 independence referendum: 55.5 percent for independence. While official, these results are "preliminary," pending possible complaints that could be lodged by the pro-Union bloc. Although the pro- Union option squeaked by with just 2000 votes above the 55 percent required threshold, we believe it unlikely that the final result will change, even after complaints have been processed. Turnout was exceptionally high, at 86.5 percent. OSCE/ODIHR called the vote "free and fair." The Mission released the Ambassador's statement acknowledging the outcome and commending the Montenegrin people on a fair contest. The Ambassador also congratulated President Vuijanovic and Prime Minister Djukanovic by phone and commiserated with opposition leader Bulatovic, urging him to close ranks in Montenegro and look to the future. End summary. Official "Preliminary" Results: Independence -------------- ¶2. (U) Republican Referendum Commission (RRC) chair Ambassador Lipka (Slovakia) announced the official preliminary results on the morning of May 23: 55.5 percent in favor of independence, with turnout of 86.49 percent of Montenegro's 484,718 voters. Invalid ballots were only 0.87 percent. The RRC's first announcement, on the morning of May 22, put the votes at 55.4 percent for independence, 44.6 percent for Union, while still waiting results from 45 of 1,117 polling stations, which Lipka said represented some 25,000 voters. So far, no complaints have been received on the voting process. Any complaints must be filed by 9 a.m. May 26; the RRC must resolve complaints within 24 hours. Parliament will then vote to accept the results. A GoM declaration of independence, and requests for recognition, could follow rapidly after the Parliamentary vote. Opposition Urged Patience - and Stonewalled -------------- ¶3. (U) Pro-Union bloc leader Predrag Bulatovic criticized the PM's early claim of victory, saying that Montenegrins should wait for the Republic Referendum Commission's announcement of official preliminary results later, "after all the votes were counted." Bulatovic's SNP led a pro- Union bloc refusal to certify results of 37 polling places (totaling 19,000 votes) in Podgorica, citing "glitches" in the lower boards' minutes. With a legal requirement that preliminary results be announced by 9 a.m. May 23, RRC Chair Lipka had to step in and certify the results. Nonetheless, Bulatovic's call late on May 21 for Union supporters to stay home until official results are available appears to have helped avoid clashes between the blocs. Comment: The pro-Union bloc commendably took their objections to and through the appropriate bureaucratic mechanisms, and not to the streets. End comment. Strong Turnout, Minor Irregularities, Few Altercations -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Turnout was exceptionally high at 86.5 percent, reflecting the strong interest raised by the independence question and the return of thousands of voters from abroad. Minor irregularities, most commonly public voting, affected a noticeable number of polling stations. Irregularities did not rise to the level requiring the dissolution of polling stations. Polling boards were mixed in their decisions on public voting, with most public votes being invalidated. Three of Montenegro's 1,117 stations were temporarily affected by fistfights, but voting was not cancelled. In one such instance, a local observer was physically attacked but not injured by a passerby outside a polling station in Bijelo Polje. Generally, polling boards took seriously their duty to assure everyone their right to vote on May ¶21. Unfortunately, a small number of board members (who belong 50/50 to either the pro-independence or pro-union blocs) allowed their partisan views to affect their performance, usually either by facilitating the tracking of those who had voted, or by continuing to discuss the pros and cons of independence inside the polling place. The most egregious examples of partisanship were in Podgorica after BELGRADE 00000825 002 OF 002 the vote, as noted. Unclear rules on the use of cell phones in the polling places also caused complications, and facilitated some forms of public voting. Local Observers Kept Focus on Problems, Turnout -------------- -- ¶5. (U) Local NGOs Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and the Center for Monitoring (CEMi) deployed hundreds of observers throughout Montenegro. They also conducted regular press conferences throughout the day, in which they highlighted irregularities, and announced turnout, on both the Republic and municipality level. USG teams used the reports of irregularities to follow up in problem polling stations, which in many but not all cases had mended their ways after the NGO reports. OSCE/ODIHR Calls Voting "In Line with Standards" -------------- --- ¶7. (SBU) The OSCE/ODIHR observers reports rated the voting process at 96 percent of polling stations as "good" or "very good" ("very good" is the top mark). ODIHR made its preliminary report midday on Monday May 22, calling the conduct of the referendum "in line with OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and other international standards." Post shares ODIHR's assessment of the voting process, and concurs the vote was free, fair, and transparent. The view from Belgrade -------------- ¶8. (U) While there has been no official reaction from the GOS, media has reported some disgruntled rumblings from the PM's office. PM advisor Aleksandar Simic lambasted the pollsters as part of a "separatist scenario" and said that he would "not be surprised if someone today filed criminal charges" against them. Meanwhile, FM Draskovic took the opportunity of the referendum result to call for a restoration of the Serbian crown as part of a constitutional monarchy as a way "to shorten our road towards Europe." Local analysts do not think Draskovic?s call will resonate with the electorate. Croatia, Macedonia Reportedly Congratulate Independence -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Montenegrin media reported at noon on May 22 that Croatian President Stjepan Mesic has congratulated Montenegrin President Vujanovic on the "(creation of) the independent state of Montenegro." Also on May 22, Macedonian President Branko Crvenkovski congratulated Vujanovic on Montenegro's independence, according to a statement from Crvenkovski's Cabinet. Kosovo's President Sejdiju and PM Ceku have also expressed congratulations for Montenegrin independence. The numerous congratulatory messages coming in from others focus more or less explicitly on the referendum process itself rather than the result. Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) So far there has been silence from senior officials in Belgrade; with the predictable unsubstantiated speculation from lower level officials and unnamed press sources. As we reported in reftel there will have to be a number of practical/legal fixes for a post-SaM future. All of that will become clearer in the days ahead as soon as all the votes are counted and the likely result is confirmed. We do not discount last minute challenges but will look to make a statement quickly and to encourage practical steps that will ensure that there is no uncertainty or discontinuity in the normal functioning of government in Belgrade. ¶11. (U) Montenegrins of all political persuasions have been assuring sometimes skeptical foreigners for months that they expected little if any violence or instability, whatever the referendum result. In the event, they debated and decided a momentous, highly-charged issue whose outcome was balanced on a statistical knife-edge, without major problems -- at least so far. International observers have commended Montenegro for its democratic handling of this challenging vote. POLT