MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: THE FINAL

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000787 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: THE FINAL WEEK SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY Ref: Belgrade 741 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With less than a week to the referendum vote on May 21, both campaigns continue with rallies, debates, and marketing -- but surprisingly little fervor. The voters' list has been finalized with a record 484,718 names, and no disputes. OSCE/ODIHR confirmed to post that the atmosphere remains calm. End summary. Not Even The Lead Story -------------- ¶2. (U) Both blocs continue with a full schedule of rallies, debates and marketing -- every other billboard is "Da" or "Ne." However, minor incidents aside, the campaign is not generating fervor in either bloc. Belgrade media even noted that the final pro-Union rally in Podgorica was moved up a day, to accommodate a soccer final. In Podgorica, the top story in the leading newspaper and TV news on May 15 was not the referendum, but a non-fatal accident on a ship in a Montenegrin harbor. But High Turnout Still Expected -------------- ¶3. (U) The lack of fervor disguises the high level of interest, with turnout expected in the neighborhood of 80 percent of the record number of registered voters. The list was completed May 12, with 484,718 voters. They will cast their ballots at 1117 polling stations - the largest has 1109 voters, the smallest only 12. ODIHR Confirms Calm Atmosphere -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Consulate staff met with Richard Chambers, deputy head of the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission, on May 15. He confirmed that the atmosphere remains calm and non- contentious. To illustrate, he noted that ODIHR only received one complaint about the voters' list -- about four allegedly invalid voter registrations in the remote municipality of Plav. ODIHR will deploy over 320 observers on May 21. POLT