MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: RALLIES AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000741 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: RALLIES AND FLAGS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY Ref: Belgrade 679 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a May 11 meeting with the Ambassador, Prime Minister Djukanovic showed calm confidence in independence as the outcome of the referendum. He did remind of potential "complications" if the EU 55 percent was not reached, showing his remaining unhappiness with the EU-imposed bar. The overall campaign atmosphere has been calm recently, despite both blocs holding frequent rallies. ODIHR's second interim report on the referendum process noted a "remarkably positive story" and a "marked improvement" in the atmosphere over the past two weeks. A couple of isolated incidents of rock-throwing, directed against both sides, have been reported. Montenegro Airlines plans an additional 200 flights just before the vote -- presumed to be for returning expatriate voters; the Government of Serbia responded with an offer of free train travel. A poll by a prominent NGO shows high turnout (87 percent) with 56.3 percent of votes for independence. EU Envoy Lajcak joined the chorus of those satisfied with the referendum campaign. The EU's suspension of the SAA talks over the non-arrest of Mladic was a virtual non-issue. End summary. OSCE/ODIHR - No Complaints -------------- ¶2. (SQ) OSCE/ODIHR briefed the diplomatic corps in Podgorica May 9. It confirmed "a marked improvement in the atmosphere and a marked decline in complaints -- to zero - from either bloc" since May 4. It also noted that Referendum Commission members have, on occassion, crossed party lines to vote with the opposite bloc, and that some complaints have been withdrawn. ODIHR also noted that a comparison of police data to voter registration data has been completed, leading to agreed changes in the voter rolls. The Republican Referendum Commission and the Media Monitoring Council have recently held regular sessions with participation of the representatives of both blocs; voter rolls will be finalized on May 11 upon the conclusion of appeals to the Administrative Court. Rallies and Flags - and a Very Little Rock Throwing -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) With the vote less than two weeks away, both blocs are holding frequent (almost nightly) rallies throughout Montenegro. Rallies are a traditional artifact of local �A;politics. The main themes are prosaic, with pro-Union leader Bulatovic focusing one address on how the voters' registration list will be completed on time. Some of the blocs' supporters are more passionate - cars of young men flying the Montenegrin flag have been seen in Podgorica, a few billboards have been defaced, Qd some nationalist graffiti has appeared. The pro-Union leadership has cautioned its supporters against racist speech - e.g., "Milo the thief" is ok, "Milo the Turk" is not (referring to the PM). Two rock-throwing incidents were reported - rocks hit the pro-Independence convoy headed to a rally in the Union-inclined city of Herceg Novi, and a rock hit an NGO observer at a pro-Union rally in Podgorica. Planes, Trains and Automobiles -------------- ¶4. (U) Montenegro Airlines (state-owned) is adding 198 flights, from western Europe to Podgorica, in the days immediately prior to the May 21 referendum. Montenegro Airlines normally has seven scheduled flights a day to Podgorica and Tivat in Montenegro. The Serbian Ministry for Capital Investment announced May 9 that all Montenegrin voters resident in Serbia would be permitted free passage on Serbian Railways to vote in the referendum. (The Belgrade-Podgorica fare is about USD 20, one-way.) A large inflow of expatriate voters is expected. CEDEM Poll -------------- ¶5. (U) CEDEM, a well-established local NGO, has released its last poll before the May 21 referendum vote. It reports support for independence at 56.3 percent of likely voters, 43.7 percent opposed, and a projected turnout of 87 percent. 1482 persons were surveyed. The number of persons who said they will not vote has declined sharply, from 26 percent to 13 percent. Minorities still strongly support independence: 80 percent of Bosnians and Muslims, BELGRADE 00000741 002 OF 002 95 percent of Albanians. PM Djukanovic, with strong support from backers of independence, has regained the lead as the most trusted politician in Montenegro. No pro-Union leader ranks higher than 6th - Andrija Mandic, leader of the Serb People Party (SNS). Full results are at www.cedem.cg.yu Lajcak Sees Constructive and Fair Environment -------------- ¶6. (U) Following his meetings May 9 with SaM President Svetozar Marovic and the leaders of the two blocs, Milo Djukanovic and Predrag Bulatovic, Miroslav Lajcak told a press conference in Podgorica that that he is satisfied with the current environment in Montenegro. He added that he will inform EU ambassadors in Brussels today that the referendum process is being carried out in a constructive and fair atmosphere. Non-Arrest of Mladic a Non-Issue -------------- ¶7. (U) The May 3 EU suspension of the SAA talks with Serbia and Montenegro over Serbia's failure to arrest indicted war criminal Ratko Mladic was noted only briefly by the campaigns. The pro-independence bloc underscored that the GoS's failure was impeding Montenegro's entry into the EU, concluding that Serbia would not "be able to hold Montenegro hostage" after May 21. The pro-Union bloc asserted that the issue of Mladic's arrest had no bearing on the referendum. POLT