MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: BLACK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000655 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: BLACK MOUNTAIN, RED FACES SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY Ref: Belgrade 615 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Missteps and misstatements dogged the pro-Union campaign last week. On April 24, police arrested one of eight pro-Union members of the Republic Referendum Commission on suspicion of falsifying voter registrations. Prosecution was approved by the State Prosecutor. No pro- Union members of the Commission attended its meeting on April 25. Two stories implying USG support for the Unionists - an "urgent invitation" for four anti-Djukanovic (but not all pro-Union) leaders to meet with State EUR A/S Fried, and an alleged DEA report "warning" of negative effects from potential Montenegrin independence - were both refuted by the USG. The local NGO Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) noted publicly that the pro-Union bloc had refused to sign a Code of Conduct. Group for Changes (GZP), an anti-Djukanovic "proto-party," saw its leadership split when GZP head Medojevic adamantly refused to allow GZP to endorse independence (which he personally supports). With their strategy focusing on GoM corruption astray, the pro- Union bloc may again be considering a boycott of the referendum bodies. End summary. Dead Voters? -------------- ¶2. (U) Nikola Medojevic (SNS - Serb People's Party) one of eight pro-Union members of the Republic Referendum Commission, was arrested April 24 on suspicion of falsifying voter registration data in 16 cases - including seeking the registration of a recently deceased person. Police are investigating another 2000 voter registration files. Two others, including a member of the Main Board of the Socialist People's Party (SNP) and a lawyer for SNP, were arrested in the same case. Prosecution was approved by the State Prosecutor. While the Prosecutor was appointed by the GoM, she has a track record of professionalism and independence, including approving the prosecution of pro-GoM activists for alleged vote buying in the "Zeta film" case. ¶3. (SBU) The Republic Referendum Commission has seventeen members: eight pro-Independence, eight pro-Union, with an international (Slovak) chair. The blocs have voted along strict partisan lines, requiring the chair to break ties. The Commission met on April 25, but without the presence of the pro-Union members. The Commission decided not to meet again until the pro-Union members reappear. Commission Chair Ambassador Lipka said that the court should have exercised more discretion in the present case, and that that there was no need for immediate arrest. Lipka said that the effect of a pro-Union boycott was still a hypothetical question, which he did not wish to answer. Comment: The arrests may yet lead to the threatened pro- Union boycott of the referendum bodies. End comment. No Invitation -------------- ¶4. (U) On April 19, Podgorica anti-government daily "Dan" headlined a report that the "Alternative Four" had been invited by Secretary Rice, through EUR A/S Fried, to a series of meetings with the "most influential people in the State Department." The four, from groups opposed to PM Djukanovic, include: Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the Socialist People's Party (SNP) and the pro-union bloc; Executive Director of the NGO and "proto-party" "Group for Changes" Nebojsa Medojevic; former Montenegrin Minister of Interior Andrija Jovicevic; and former FRY Ambassador to Italy Miodrag Lekic. The purpose of the meetings was allegedly to discuss the referendum and a post-referendum Montenegro, causing Dragan Soc, former head of the People's Party (NS),to proclaim that "the sole fact that, at this moment, the State Department is inviting these people for consultations indicates that they estimate that PM Djukanovic will lose in the referendum and exit the political scene" and that by doing so, the Department "has indicated they should now talk to those who will take over the future leadership of Montenegro." ¶5. (U) Later on April 19, Consulate Podgorica gave several statements to Montenegrin media, clarifying that there had been no invitation by the Department, that the group would not meet with A/S Fried, and that, at the request of the SaM embassy in Washington, a meeting at an appropriate level would be arranged. Refuting Soc publicly, Consulate reiterated that the USG is strictly neutral on the outcome BELGRADE 00000655 002 OF 002 of the referendum, that the USG has always met with a wide variety of interlocutors in Montenegro, and that such meetings do not imply support of a particular point of view. Montenegrin media extensively covered and editorialized on the correction the following day. The story and corrections (without embellishment) lagged by one day in the Belgrade press. No DEA Report -------------- ¶6. (U) Even before the "invitation" story broke, pro-Union press in Belgrade and Montenegro reported on a supposed report from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). The media, citing "anonymous sources in the Serbian police," said the DEA had warned that Montenegrin independence and Kosovo separation would cause mafia wars in Montenegro and an increased level of crime. The Consulate and Embassy confirmed with the DEA country office in Rome that "the DEA has not published and/or conducted any such 'study'", and answered press inquiries on April 20 noting that the Consulate was not aware of any such study. No Code of Conduct -------------- ¶7. (U) The local independent NGO, Center for Democratic Transition (CDT),noted publicly on April 20 that the pro- Union bloc had refused to sign a Code of Conduct. The same code has become a tradition in Montenegrin elections since 2001, and the pro-Independence bloc was again willing to sign. Pro-Union leaders Bulatovic and Popovic told Consulate they had no problem with the text of the Code and would sign if anyone else were sponsoring it, but that they wouldn't sign anything from CDT because it was "biased." CDT's monitoring efforts are supported by USAID through a sub-grant to NDI. CDT released a press statement, with Consulate's permission, that the USG supported adherence by both blocs to the Code. No Unity - GZP -------------- ¶8. (SBU) On April 14, Svetozar Jovicevic resigned as president of NGO (and "proto-party") Group for Changes (GZP). Jovicevic had resigned after his call for the GZP Executive Board to rally the organization's supporters to vote in favor of Montenegrin independence was rejected. GZP leader Nebojsa Medojevic, while personally pro- independence, is unwilling to alienate the sizeable number of GZP supporters who favor State Union. He has kept GZP on the fence waiting for a chance to dislodge PM Djukanovic in post-referendum elections. Jovicevic's departure has precipitated a split in GZP, as some other leading members have followed his example. New Film -------------- ¶9. (U) These missteps overshadow the release by SNP to the local pro-Union newspaper "Dan" on April 20 of another film showing the DPS activist from the "Zeta film" again allegedly buying votes. Consulate, and ODIHR, had earlier advised the SNP and the pro-Union bloc that evidence of alleged criminal violations of the referendum law, such as vote buying, should be provided to the appropriate authorities that are empowered to investigate and prosecute such. POLT