Bulatovic Threatens Boycott

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000623 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW SUBJECT: Bulatovic Threatens Boycott ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the Socialist People's Party (SNP),has leveled accusations of impropriety and voter fraud against Montenegrin Prime Minister Djukanovic in the run-up to the independence referendum on May 21. He added that he is concerned over the international community's oversight of the process and claims to be considering boycotting the referendum. We doubt he will go that far. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On April 13, Bulatovic met with the Ambassador to discuss the Montenegrin referendum. The SNP leader claimed that Djukanovic was actively attempting to buy votes in advance of the May referendum. He said that the SNP had another film (in addition to the previously released Zeta film),showing members of Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) bribing pro-Union supporters to abstain. He further claimed that the DPS had bought 5,000 ID cards of pro-Union supporters and planned to purchase another 15,000 (at 200 euros a piece),which he insinuated would prevent them from voting. Bulatovic noted that he had seen a "bag of ID cards" that came from DPS headquarters, which he had photographed and planned to present publicly. Lastly, he accused the government of removing pro-Union supporters from election lists and not collecting on past due electric bills. ¶3. (SBU) Bulatovic said he had no faith in the system established by the March referendum law and was reluctant to continue working with the referendum commission and other established oversight committees. He said that he would continue to cooperate with the international community for the now, but that he and his allies would need to adopt a "strong decision" (a euphemism for boycott) in response to "all the crimes committed by Djukanovic." He concluded that he would probably leave politics if the referendum passes. ¶4. (SBU) Podgorica Principal Officer followed up with Bulatovic and People's Party (NS) President Predrag Popovic on April 17. Bulatovic raised other alleged violations of the law, pointing to the commingling of GoM and pro-Independence assets and actions. When asked what action most placed a democratic referendum in jeopardy, Bulatovic again stressed allegations that the DPS is buying ID cards. P.O. urged the bloc leaders to bring all such evidence of the buying of ID cards to the appropriate authorities, reminding him that the international community had neither the ability nor mandate to investigate such allegations. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Instead of making a strong push to defeat the referendum--which all polls suggest remains possible--pro-Union forces are looking for a way to "save face" through protest. Most observers expect some campaign abuses to occur in the run-up to May 21, but most of Bulatovic's accusations seem questionable. For example, ID cards are not needed to vote (several different forms of identification can be used),so collecting them would have no impact. Additionally, ID cards are needed for everyday life--such as collecting a pension--which would put an arduous burden on those who supposedly surrendered them. Pro-Union forces probably hope the international community will legitimize their allegations against the DPS by investigating each accusation, which would weaken the pro-Independence movement. We will continue to strongly encourage the opposition to participate in the referendum and speak out against actual campaign violations, while refusing to be dragged into the mudslinging between the two sides. POLT