MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGN

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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGN
BEGINS IN EARNEST


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Ref: Belgrade 575


1. (SBU) Summary: The past week saw the referendum
campaigns begin in earnest, with billboards, TV spots, and
- for the pro-Union bloc - a large public rally. The pro-
Union bloc continued its focus on alleged improprieties by
the GoM (and media). The GoM published a Declaration on
Independence, and a Declaration on Relations with Serbia.
Poloffs visited the north and far north of Montenegro to
discuss the upcoming vote. The USG will register 14 teams
to monitor the vote. End summary.

The Campaign Begins
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2. (U) TV spots and billboards began to appear for both
sides last week. The pro-Union bloc ads state "No -
Montenegro is not for sale," continuing its theme that the
GoM and PM Djukanovic are corrupt and tying into its
allegations that Djukanovic supporters are buying ID cards.
The pro-Independence bloc counters with "Yes - For the
Montenegro We Love." The pro-Union bloc held a large,
traditional rally on April 17 in Mojkovac (central
Montenegro) to formally kick off their campaign. The pro-
Independence bloc announced it would defer such rallies
until closer to the May 21 vote.

Pro-Union Bloc Meets with USG
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3. (SBU) Pro-Union bloc leader Socialist People's Party
(SNP) president Predrag Bulatovic met with Ambassador Polt
and Podgorica principal officer on April 13; Bulatovic and
People's Party (NS) president Predrag Popovic had a follow-
up meeting with P.O. on April 17. (Details septel). The
leaders continued to stress a wide range of alleged GoM and
DPS (Democratic Party of Socialists - led by PM Djukanovic)
campaign violations - from the mundane (PM using GoM and
not party cars to go to events) to serious - centering on
allegations that the DPS has already bought 5,000 ID cards
with the end goal to buy 20,000, supposedly to suppress
voter turnout (Montenegro has 470,000 voters). The bloc
also complained that Slovak Ambassador Lipka, who heads the
Republic Referendum Commission, "is siding with the GoM" by
not breaking deadlocks about pro-Union allegations filed
with the otherwise politically evenly split commission.
Bulatovic noted that when challenged by the Consulate over
inclusion of the Radicals (headed by indicted war criminal
Vojislav) Seselj in the pro-Union bloc, the bloc "sided
with America."

GoM Publishes Declarations
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4. (U) The GoM published a Declaration on Independence,
spelling out the rights of citizens after independence. On
April 13, the GoM adopted a Declaration on Relations with
the Republic of Serbia after gaining Independence. The
latter commits Montenegro to open borders with Serbia, and
guarantees to Serbian citizens all the rights enjoyed by
Montenegrins, except voting. The GoS dismissed the
declarations as "political marketing." The pro-Union bloc
opined to the Consulate that the declarations were another
instance of improper and even illegal involvement of the
GoM in the referendum campaign.

The View from Beyond the Capital
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5. (U) Poloff met with political leaders from northern
Montenegro (Zabljak and Pljevlja) April 11-12 to discuss
the region and the upcoming referendum, which dominates
political discourse. They described their region as
economically depressed, predominantly ethnic-Serb and aging
rapidly. They expressed worries that an independent
Montenegro would hamper their ties to neighboring Serbia
and further erode their precarious economic position. Both
regions are likely to vote strongly in favor of the State
Union. [Comment: Although Zabljak is a small municipality,
Pljevlja has the fifth largest municipal population in
Montenegro and will be a key voting district on May 21.
End Comment]. The leaders said that while tensions are
rising, they did not anticipate any significant violence
surrounding the referendum.


6. (SBU) The DPS (pro-Independence) mayor of Montenegro's

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second largest city, Niksic, told poloff April 14 that he
expects his city to vote in favor of independence, with 58
to 62.5 percent of voters saying "Yes." His Chief of Staff
was more cautious, predicting 55 to 56 percent "Yes." The
Mayor won election in a runoff in April 2005 with 54.4
percent; 21 of Niksic's 41 councilors are from pro-
Independence parties.

Monitoring Plans
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7. (U) The Consulate has requested that the GoM accredit 14
teams to monitor the referendum vote on May 21. Each team
has two Americans (drawn from the Consulate, Embassy and
beyond) and local support staff. The Consulate will staff a
central coordination cell throughout the day. Polls open
at 8 a.m. local, closing 13 hours later at 9 p.m. Initial
approximate results may possibly be available as early as
10 p.m., but a close vote will result in a long night.

POLT