LDP Working Hard to be a Contender

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000572

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: LDP Working Hard to be a Contender



1. (U) Summary: The nascent Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP),although still with much work to do
before being ready for a nationwide election, has
been buoyed by better-than-expected results in
recent by-elections and a successful party
congress. The party still faces a significant
challenge in energizing an apathetic public that
is weary of the constant themes of ICTY and Kosovo
and disappointed with current leadership in the
democratic bloc. If LDP is to pass the threshold
for participation in a future parliament, it will
have to find a way to mobilize these voters to go
to the polls. End Summary.


2. (U) The March 11 LDP party congress in
Belgrade introduced the party's new local and
national leaders as well as its new 10-point
political platform which will form the basis for
its future electoral campaigning. The platform,
entitled "Serbia Wants to Work," reflects the
party's heavy dose of ex-DOS/Djindjic era
officials and sets a distinctly pro-reform tone
(at just 21 pages, it also stands in stark
contrast to the typical Serbian party platform,
which can run into the hundreds of pages and
stultify potential voters). The congress was well-
attended for a party currently polling at 2-4
percent nationally, with some 2000 attendees -
including some foreign ambassadors - filling the
conference venue.


3. (U) Prior to the congress, LDP president
Cedomir Jovanovic told poloff the party has
established 82 municipal boards (local offices)
since its formation in November 2005, including in
Serbia's five largest cities, with plans for 22
more. He was especially proud of the February
opening of the party's Novi Sad branch, which drew
900 supporters in a city that elected a Radical
Party mayor in September 2004. Jovanovic said the
LDP leadership was also pleased with its result in
a January mayoral election in Smederevo, a medium-
sized industrial town southwest of Belgrade. Its
candidate received nine percent of the vote,
despite limited funds, untrained volunteers, and
untested political machinery. Ultimately,
Jovanovic said, the LDP wants to earn the support
of 200,000 voters, viewed as the minimum number
required for a party to enter parliament
regardless of turnout.


4. Comment: The LDP is working hard to make
itself into a parliamentary contender. Polls vary
on its success to date, since it is a new party,
but many suggest that it is between 2-4 percent
(including support for its election ally the Civic
Alliance of Serbia). According to some pollsters,
support for LDP could top out as high as 9-10
percent if it can capture large numbers of
traditional democratic voters who have not voted
in recent elections as they have become
increasingly disillusioned with the current
democratic leadership. LDP has begun working with
USAID-funded National Democratic Institute to
develop its party infrastructure and formulate a
plan to tap into the circa 600,000 "lost" votes
that could be captured by democratic bloc parties
in the next parliamentary elections if those
voters can be mobilized.

POLT