MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: LARGE EX-PAT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000530 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: LARGE EX-PAT VOTE EXPECTED SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY Ref: A) Belgrade 489 B) Belgrade 521 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Up to 70 percent of Montenegro's 20,000 ex patria voters are expected to return for the referendum vote, with twice as many supporting independence as union. The "Zeta film" of alleged vote buying by the GoM is fading from attention, despite opposition efforts to keep it in the limelight. The GoM is consolidating already strong minority support for independence by promising passage of a new Law on Minorities by April 30 (details Ref B). Distribution of campaign moneys has been delayed by a dispute over the mandate of the finance committee. Ambassador Polt's call for a fair referendum campaign got wide coverage. OSCE/ODHIR has started its long-term observation of the referendum, with plans for regular briefings of the public and diplomatic corps. End summary. Return of the Prodigals? -------------- ¶2. (U) The Union of Montenegrin Associations in Europe (SCAE) told local press that about 20,000 Montenegrin voters live abroad, out of a total of 470,000 voters (3000 names were added to the rolls in March). Most of the expatriates live in Europe and the USA. The pro- independence bloc calculates on getting 8 to 10 thousand ex-pat votes, while the pro-Union bloc foresees only 2 to 4 thousand votes from abroad. Ex-pat voters must be physically present at their place of registration to vote. "Zeta Film" Fading -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The pro-Union parties are increasingly dismayed by the dismissive public reaction to their March 23 release of a "secret" film which purportedly depicts vote buying by the Democratic Party of Socialists - DPS (main GoM party). The opposition complains that more attention has been paid to how the film was made (by a discharged police officer who was suspended after allegations that he faked his university degree),edited, and distributed (by the opposition to the press),than to the purported vote buying depicted. Having failed to gain traction with the public, SNP and two smaller opposition parties (NS and DSS) are threatening to "withdraw" from the vote, and calling for the EU to intervene. When the Montenegrin Referendum Commission predictably deadlocked on the film, commission head Slovak Ambassador Lipka said he would not use his vote to break the deadlock. Lipka, the U.S. Consulate and the head of the new OSCE/ODHIR mission, Jorgen Grunnet, all said publicly that investigating the "Zeta film" was under the competence of the relevant Montenegrin authorities, Lipka and Grunnet specifically citing the State Prosecutor (Ref A). EU HR Solana's spokesperson had no comment. Campaign Money Distributed a Month Late -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Late on April 3, the finance committee finally agreed on its rules of procedure. The rules were to be agreed by March 5, three days after adopting the law on referendum. The distribution of two million Euros in campaign financing (1 million per bloc) was held up until the rules were agreed, resulting in the noticeable quiet in the first 30 days of the 75 day campaign period. The pro- Union bloc is expected to complain, although the delay was primarily caused by the opposition's demand that the finance committee be empowered to look at all financial expenditures that might affect the vote, such as a recently declared tax holiday on car transfers, and electricity bills (see the "Zeta film" allegations, Ref A),and not just campaign financing as such. Ambassador Polt Calls for Fair Referendum Campaign -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) Ambassador Polt, in a statement given wide coverage by the Serbian and Montenegro media, called on both sides in the Montenegrin referendum process to campaign in a fair and transparent manner, abiding by an ethical code they agreed upon. The decision on Montenegro's future status is to be "whatever the Montenegrin people decide," the media quotes Ambassador Polt. Growing Support in Serbia for Media Code of Conduct -------------- -------------- BELGRADE 00000530 002 OF 002 ¶6. (U) Head of the pro-Union bloc, Predrag Bulatovic (SNP) and the Independent Association of Journalists of Serbia last week called upon all media in Serbia to sign the voluntary code of conduct for the referendum. So far, 8 of 21 Serbian media outlets widely available in Montenegro have signed, including Radio-Television Serbia (RTS). Ironically, Bulatovic's call to the journalists to sign occurred at the same time his party became the last hold- out not to sign a similar code of conduct for political parties. OSCE/ODHIR Opens Mission -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The OSCE/ODHIR monitoring mission has opened its offices in Podgorica, headed by Jorgen Grunnet (Denmark). The long-term observation team of 20 members arrives the week of April 3. In a briefing for the local diplomatic corps April 3, Grunnet said ODHIR plans two public interim reports before May 21, and regular private briefings for the diplomatic corps - we have proposed that the latter be at least bi-weekly. ODHIR said three parliamentary delegations are coming to observe the election, plus what ODHIR said was "a number" from the U.S. Congress. The organizations plan a joint press conference for Monday May 22 on the referendum results. The Day After, Continued -------------- ¶8. (SBU) EU Envoy Lajcak told a local news agency that the GoS does not want to talk directly to the GoM about relations after the referendum, and that while they should find some other way to communicate, he was not the negotiator between the two republics. POLT