SAM: Special Envoy Lajcak Emphasizes Unity

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000499 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: MAR 28, 2016 TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW SUBJECT: SAM: Special Envoy Lajcak Emphasizes Unity Needed to Overcome Political Brinkmanship Classified By: Ambassador Michael Polt, reasons 1.4 (b,d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Montenegrin referendum campaign has begun to heat up and all signs indicate a no-holds barred campaign with both sides willing to exploit existing tensions to get their preferred outcome. We are coordinating closely with EU Special Envoy Lajcak in the run up to the May 21 vote. The international community will need to remain united and play an active role to ensure that the referendum's rules are followed. End Summary. Lajcak Expecting Tough Campaign -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador Lajcak, the EU's special envoy for the Montenegrin referendum, told the Ambassador on March 24 that he expects the campaign will be somewhat "dirty." Allegations of vote buying have already begun and "provocations of a larger nature are probable." Belgrade, Lajcak suggested, clearly wants to have an open hand on how to manage the news, as seen in the fact that only four of 21 Serbian media outlets available in Montenegro signed the media code of conduct. (Note: As of March 27, eight of 21 outlets have signed, including the largest, Radio-Television Serbia. End note.) The questionable details surrounding the recent allegation of DPS "vote-buying," and the sensational and provocative way it played in the Belgrade press, is a clear example of the kind of mischief that could be expected in the months ahead. ¶3. (C) Lajcak said that he and EU representatives have continued to insist to pro-Independence leaders that the 55 percent supermajority is inviolate and that there is no "grey zone" (a pro-independence majority below 55 percent). While some EU members, namely Slovenia and Hungary, have indicated they would recognize Montenegrin independence as long as a majority approves the referendum, the EU was working to ensure that all of its members remain faithful to the EU-brokered arrangement. Lajcak aknowledged the need for the international community to be prepared to fend off efforts by Prime Minister Djukanovic to exploit divisions in the IC in the case of a grey zone result. Echoes of the Past: The Heavy Hand of Belgrade -------------- - ¶4. (SBU) Lajcak said that Prime Minister Kostunica is coordinating closely with the pro-Union opposition on ways to affect the May outcome. He officially unveiled his campaign to counter the pro-Independence movement this week and, opined Lajcak, Kostunica clearly sees a potential victory in Montenegro as a way to improve his position in Serbia. Kostunica and the Montenegrin opposition view a pro-Union result as the first step in bringing down Djukanovic in parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2006. ¶5. (SBU) Lajcak confirmed his lack of success in getting Podgorica and Belgrade to begin a dialogue about their post-referendum relationship, regardless of the outcome. Kostunica has rejected all dialogue with Djukanovic on any issue until after May 21, convinced that Djukanovic would use the discussions between the two republics to his advantage. In either scenario Lajcak sees it unlikely that there would be any productive engagement immediately following the vote. This is further complicated by the fact that the opposition does not support Belgrade's goal of creating a more centralized state dominated by Serbia. If Djukanovic falls short, Lajcak believes all parties will focus on the fall parliamentary elections and leave possible changes in the State Union for the future. Sign of Things to Come: Voter Fraud and Secret Services -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) On March 23 and 24, Serbian press, primarily those which the GOS heavily influences, widely covered an alleged video of members of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) trying to bribe a citizen in Montenegro into casting a pro-independence vote. The two DPS activists claim that Vasilje Mijovic, a pro- Union activist who played a role in disseminating the video, set them up. The Montenegrin Interior Ministry BELGRADE 00000499 002 OF 002 had fired Mijovic 10 days earlier for forging his college diploma. Mijovic also was one of the founders of the Red Berets, a notorious Serb paramilitary group that was responsible for human rights abuses and large scale organized crime activities during the nineties. He is rumored to be tied to Serbian secret services. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) With only two months left before the Montenegrin referendum the rules are set and both sides are gearing up for the tough race to the finish. Tensions are high and neither Belgrade nor Podgorica will hesitate to exploit opportunities -- including irresponsible press play -- to produce a favorable outcome in one direction or the other. As the referendum approaches, we will supplement our presence on the ground in Montenegro to urge fair play, and to continue working closely with the EU to encourage all parties to act responsibly and follow the guidelines outlined in the new referendum law. POLT