MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: ELECTORAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000427 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: ELECTORAL COMMISSIONS SELECTED (Corrected Copy) SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY Ref: Belgrade 400 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Both blocs began quiet door-to-door campaigns, unmarked by the death of Milosevic. The Parliament selected members of the Referendum (electoral) Commissions at all levels, the last legal step needed. OSCE has recommended that 20 long-term observers be deployed from early April, with 200 on the day of the vote. Minority support for independence appears to be firming, while PM Djukanovic has taken the lead in defining the meaning of the referendum: independence or a unitary state (run from Belgrade). Meanwhile, a survey showed voters most interested in learning, from experts not politicians, what the independence options mean for daily quality of life issues. End summary. Electoral Commissions Selected -------------- ¶2. (U) The Montenegrin Parliament on March 15 appointed Slovakian diplomat Frantisek Lipka as the President of the Republic Referendum Commission yesterday, the Montenegrin press reports. The Parliament also appointed members of the referendum commissions at both the central and local level, as well as members of the parliamentary boards for media monitoring and campaign financing. The commissions are mixed, with representatives from pro-Independence and pro- Union blocs. As agreed, Lipka was proposed by the EU special envoy Miroslav Lajcak. Lipka has a PhD in Slavic languages and was Ambassador of Czechoslovakia to FRY in the nineties. OSCE Releases Needs Assessment for Referendum Monitoring -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) The OSCE/ODHIR Needs Assessment Mission recommended on March 14 that the referendum observation mission should be deployed before the end of March. The report recommends that in addition to a core team of experts, the mission should comprise 20 long-term observers to be deployed throughout Montenegro in early April. The mission should be enhanced by some 200 short-term observers for observation on the referendum day. (Full report e-mailed to EUR/SCE.) Albanian Vote -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Poloff and visiting SaM deskoff met with the leaders of Montenegro's two parliamentary Albanian parties on March 16. Mehmet Barthi (Democratic League in Montenegro - DSCG) said that ethnic Albanians "cannot be satisfied" with the current situation. He noted that the DSCG was meeting later that day with PM Djukanovic, to discuss conditions for Albanians -- "if there is no movement, the DSCG will not be active participants" in the referendum campaign. Barthi added however that the DSCG "did not wish to hamper" the pro-Independence bloc. Comment: Barthi's threat to call for his voters to boycott the referendum vote, over conditions for Albanians (including municipality status for Tuzi, a suburb of Podgorica),has faded as expected. End comment. ¶5. (SBU) Ferhat Dinosa (Democratic Union of Albanians - DUA),who is close to Djukanovic's DPS, expected that "no Albanian will listen to a call to boycott" the referendum. For Albanians and other minorities, Dinosa said independence was the only way to avoid "the disappearance of Montenegro" and to end "the dream of a greater Serbia." Consequently, he expects that over 90 percent of the minority vote will go for independence, and that independence will get more than the required 55 percent of the total vote. Pollster Gives Opinion on Referendum -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Principal Officer and visiting SaM deskoff met with Srdjan Darmanovic of the NGO Center for Democracy and Human Rights on March 16. CEDEM plans to conduct one more poll before the vote, releasing the results in late April. He was confident that independence would gain 55 percent of votes cast, if turnout was at or below the historic high of 82 percent of registered voters. He says his data until now have shown that Bosniak, Muslim, and Albanian minorities will vote solidly for independence, notwithstanding political posturing from Barthi and Serbian BELGRADE 00000427 002 OF 003 Sandzak Muslim leader Ugljanin. Opposition Leader Meets With Solana -------------- ¶7. (U) Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the Socialist People's Party (SNP) and head of the pro-Union bloc, met with EU HR Javier Solana in Brussels March 14. (PM Djukanovic and President Marovic met with Solana last week, ref.) Solana and Bulatovic agreed that there is no such a thing as a "gray zone," but only a law which must be implemented fully. Bulatovic added he believed that the GoS should not discuss relations between the two republics with the GoM before the referendum is held, a position with which Solana disagreed. State Prosecutor Investigating Alleged Voting Fraud -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) The State Prosecutor, Vesna Medenica, has said that her office will investigate allegations made in the press and on the floor of Parliament that political parties are purchasing identification documents or applying pressure to citizens regarding voting in the referendum. She said that so far, no prosecutors have informed her of receiving reports of such pressure. Independent NGO Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) (a USAID subgrantee through NDI) confirmed to Consulate media reports that it has also not received reports of i.d. cards being bought. They added that such an action would be "senseless," as driver's licenses and passports can also be used to verify a voter's identity. Comment: It is commonly believed that the ruling DPS "rented" i.d. cards from potential opposition voters in the 2002 elections, to hold down the opposition vote (no i.d. means no vote). The action was seen as unfair, but not illegal so long as no attempt was made to use the "rented" card to vote; as described by prosecutor Medenica, 2003 changes in the law now make such "rental" illegal. End comment. Djukanovic Says Vote is For Independence or Unitary State -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) PM Djukanovic, speaking with local media March 15, said that in the forthcoming referendum, citizens would in fact vote for either independence or a federation, adding that a federation would soon develop into a unitary state in which Montenegro "would be a faceless part of the state of Serbia and would even be left without its name." He rejected Predrag Bulatovic's (SNP) assertion that a pro- Union vote would leave the present State Union unchanged. He noted that the pro-Union People's Party (NS) already announced that it sought to bring back the dinar, and stressed that the authorities in Belgrade are unwilling to discuss the post-referendum relationship between Montenegro and Serbia. PM Distances Self from FM on "Grey Zone" Scenario -------------- -------------- ¶10. (U) At a press conference March 15, PM Milo Djukanovic distanced himself from statements recently made by Montenegrin FM Miodrag Vlahovic that Montenegro would withdraw its representatives from Belgrade if the referendum result fell within the gray zone of 50 and 55 percent. Calling the withdrawal statement Vlahovic's "personal position," Djukanovic added that in the case of a "gray zone" result, the authorities "will consider all possible solutions." The PM concluded that "in my opinion, independence is supported by more than 55 per cent." Citizens Most Concerned about Quality of Life Issues -------------- -------------- ¶11. (U) A survey released by the Montenegro Media Institute showed that citizens expect the media to report about basic quality of life issues during the referendum campaign and that experts, not politicians, should elaborate on those issues for the public. The citizens are most interested in an explanation of what will happen if the referendum succeeds or fails regarding: access to medical treatment, living standards, currency, inflation rate, conditions for favorable credits, employment opportunities, food prices, pensions, new road construction, tourism development, visas for foreign travel, and studying in Serbia. Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Two weeks into the referendum campaign, political BELGRADE 00000427 003 OF 003 discourse within Montenegro remains civil, even as both blocs (with the possible exception of the SNP) make efforts to draw clear distinctions between the outcomes. The death of Slobodan Milosevic garnered little notice, after the initial shock of the announcement. The agreed 80-day campaign period is perhaps longer than could be seriously sustained by the blocs, especially the pro-Union bloc, and the pace, and perhaps the temperature of the discussion, is expected to increase as May 21 referendum date nears. POLT